July, 2017 - BetPlusWin Betting Tips

Why separating probability from intuition is of utmost importance?

August 19, 2018July 28, 2017 by Bet And Win

The Possibility and Certainty Effects give rise to a twisted perception that judging the likelihood of rare events is so difficult. The example of this is the lottery. However, betting on the team that you are attached to is extremely bad idea. In general, bettors instead of measuring the value of a bet by its Expected Value (EV), they consider what they feel about the potential returns. Let’s try rating the importance of the increases below in our chance to win $1 million: Every option stands for equal quantitative change (a 5% improvement). However, they produce different qualitative impressions, or so to say, every single option creates a different emotional reaction. In option (a), one moves from no chance of winning the $1 million to having a chance. The positive emotion is present because this chance, no matter how small is, there is still a probability of 0.05 and this feeling is called the Possibility Effect. This leads bettors to overweight long shots and it is the incentive which makes gamblers participate in a lottery because for small money, it offers the possibility of a huge return. In option (b) and (c) there is less dramatic impressions. Option (b) offers even double of what option (a) does. However, the qualitative impact is absent since it doesn’t have the same mental effects and it doesn’t cause significant mental reactions. Option (d) provides a 100 % certainty and is opposite to the Possibility Effect. Thus is called the Certainty Effect, which means that when EV calculations are not present, and outcomes which are almost certain are in general underweighted compared to their probability. Although weighing the probabilities is very beneficial, bettors will usually bet on one team over the other simply because the think it is a more likely occurrence, without calculating a superior value. According to studies, when a subject matter stimulates emotional representation of an outcome, one has a declined ability to assess the probability of outcomes in an unbiased way. Therefore, your emotional attachment to your favourite team will create your biased projections of the desired outcome – thinking the ball into the net – and thus your will overweight the probability of that team winning. All of this makes placing a bet on your favourite team a really bad idea. Why the phrasing is important An Expected Value calculation is easier to make when a bet has a clear wording because in that way weighting will be close to or match probability. If a bet is worded in a slightly different way, then this could make a huge difference to how it is interpreted. For example, outright markets can be phrased as either, ‘Player A vs. the field’, or as a long list of all participants including Player A (e.g. Player A: 3.201, Player B: 9.454, Player C: 11.232, etc.). What this means is that the first option gives a simple presentation of the task for Player A and this stimulates cognitive overweighting of his probability of success. The second option seems to have more frightening prospect. The truth here is that the probability of success is the same as in the first option, but in the second option the opponents of Player A are known and listed. Thus, this results in underweighted assessment. Never lose focus over emotion “Will Team A score?” Odds Yes/Odds No “Will Team B score?” Odds Yes/Odds No This is a very common bet to see. However, it is important to focus here in order to prevent misjudgment of probability. If you focus on only one bet in isolation, i.e. not properly considering the other one as a whole, then your judgment may be overweighted. Thus, the following combination of both questions gives a better perspective: “Will both Team A & Team B score” Odds Yes/Odds No There was one study in 1999 by Craig Fox and psychologist Amos Tversky. This study included a group of US basketball fans to assess the individual chances of the eight quarter-finalists in the NBA Playoffs. The aggregated probability for the outcomes was significantly overweighted at 240 % for the eight teams. This was because the focus was exclusively on assessing the chances of just one team at a time and because they were all NBA fans who had vivid impressions of each team. On the other hand, later they were asked to assess the chances of winning of Eastern Conference as opposed to Western Conference and these probabilities turned to be close to 100 %. This was a result of the fact that the two options generated less emotional response and they were equally specific. How are rare events related to underweighting? The inability to visualise a rare event and the lack of proper calculation leads to underweighting of probability. This is illustrated by a betting coup in 1991, who became known as the Hole in One Gang. The two bettors calculated that the odds of a hole-in-one occurring at a European Golf Tour event were approximately 2.25, after they analysed statistics. They targeted various independent bookmakers and requested odds for a hole-in-one, but as risk assessment in that time was not so sophisticated, they only relied on their intuition. With little or no experience with a hole-in-one events for bookmakers, the quotes offered ranged from 4.00 to 101.1 and this was a great example of how one rare event can be overweighted. Sadly, as bettors rely on their feelings and place bets based on how they feel about the probabilities, which results in the Possibility and Certainty Effects, these kinds of mistakes can turn out to be very costly. Again, the golden rule in betting is to assess every bet in terms of Expected Value – the average of outcomes each weighted by probability.

How successful are Premier League Teams in Handicap betting?

July 27, 2017July 27, 2017 by Bet And Win

In order to get better odds, more and more bettors avoid the traditional soccer betting 1X2. Nowadays, they tend to turn more towards Handicap betting because it surely provides better returns. But, what can we learn from the past performances of Handicap betting and how can we use these data for future Handicap betting? What kind of information does past Handicap statistics provide us with? Below are statistics from the last seven season of the Premier League, on the handicap market, with information which teams performed better than expected. The traditional 1X2 system provides us with information regarding how many times one team won the match, played in draw or lost and the odds for each result. However, if we consider the handicap betting, we can find out how one team performed against the market’s expectation. This gives better and more precise assessment of the result probabilities, because it combines both valuable information and information from the crowd. When a bettor places a bet on a team and this team wins, then the team is said to have ‘covered the spread’. If one team covers the spread in more than 50 % of the matches, it is said to have beaten the bookmakers in handicap betting. Handicap performance of Premier League teams for 2010/11-2016/17 Team 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 Average Arsenal 39.50% 42.10% 44.70% 57.90% 42.10% 47.40% 44.70% 45.50% Bournemouth AFC* N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 34.20% 52.60% 43.40% Brighton and Hove Albion* N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Burnley* N/A N/A N/A 39.50% 39.50% N/A 50.00% 43.00% Chelsea 34.20% 28.90% 52.60% 57.90% 47.40% 28.90% 54.10% 43.40% Crystal Palace* N/A N/A N/A 50.00% 57.90% 47.40% 42.10% 49.40% Everton 42.10% 39.50% 42.10% 44.70% 44.70% 50.00% 52.60% 45.10% Huddersfield Town* N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Leicester City* N/A N/A N/A N/A 44.70% 71.10% 42.10% 52.60% Liverpool 39.50% 31.60% 39.50% 44.70% 39.50% 39.50% 50.00% 40.60% Newcastle United* 47.40% 60.50% 44.70% 44.70% 31.60% 39.50% N/A 44.70% Manchester City 42.10% 57.90% 34.20% 55.30% 52.60% 36.80% 39.50% 45.50% Manchester United 47.40% 52.60% 47.40% 44.70% 42.10% 47.40% 47.40% 47.00% Southampton* N/A N/A 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 52.60% 39.50% 48.40% Stoke City 50% 52.60% 55.30% 63.20% 55.30% 52.60% 50.00% 54.00% Swansea City* N/A 50.00% 47.40% 39.50% 47.40% 47.40% 45.90% 46.30% Tottenham Hotspur 42.10% 52.60% 55.30% 50.00% 52.60% 50.00% 53.80% 50.90% Watford* N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 44.70% 41.00% 42.90% W.B.A 52.60% 52.60% 47.40% 47.40% 52.60% 55.30% 60.50% 52.60% West Ham United* 44.70% N/A 52.60% 47.40% 52.60% 60.50% 42.10% 50.00% Stoke City – Consistently outperforming expectation With Mark Hughes, The Potters’s style of play was considerably changed and they finished 14th. Before, when they had Tony Pulis as a manager and after winning the promotion of the Premier League, they were considered hard to beat. Their change of manager increased their percentage of covering the spread (63.2 % in the season of 2013/14), but from 2010/11 onwards, they have been consistently covering the spread (on average 54 %). Thus, Stoke City is the only team to cover the spread 50 % or more in the period of the last seven campaigns. Therefore, if they continue with this practice, it would be very safe to place a bet on Stoke City’s handicap odds as it can give great returns, even if they do not win or win only by a narrow margin. Does reputation play a role in the Liverpool case? Liverpool won the league for the last time in 1990. However, their reputation influences their handicap odds a lot. They have 40.60 % average of covering the spread in the last seven seasons and no club which has been in the division throughout the same period has lower than this. As a matter of fact, Liverpool managed to cover the spread 50 % of the time only last season, out of all the previous seven seasons. This means that, if bettors want to place a bet, they should bet on Liverpool’s opponents to cover the spread throughout the season because it will be more profitable than if they place a bet on Liverpool at 1X2 odds. Why is Tottenham Hotspur predictable? In 2010/11 Tottenham Hotspur had 40.10 % coverage of spread, but over the past seven seasons, they had average of 50.90 % of the time. Bettors can use these data for future performance because this average may not provide a handicap betting opportunity. Even if the Tottenham Hotspur seems to be failing to cover the spread, their previous record show that a positive run will follow Everton’s steady improvement offers a potential value Since 2011/12 Everton has been constantly improving their ability to cover the spread, with an overall average of 45.10 % in the last seven seasons. In reality they do little progression regarding how often they cover the spread. However, if this trend continues, and Everton constantly outperforms market expectation, it could be valuable to bet on their handicap odds in the Premier League season of 2017/18.

Applying Elo ratings to soccer betting

July 25, 2017 by Bet And Win

What every bettor should consider when planning to place a bet in soccer are the Elo ratings and how to make great use of this method in order to increase profits. Blow you may read more regarding this method. Elo ratings is a method developed by Hungarian-born American Arpad Elo. As a master level chess player, he invented this method as a chess rating system to serve as a comparing tool of the skill levers of players in which two teams compete against each other. However, after a while, this method found its use in many other sports to assess the performance of teams. How it works? The essence of the Elo ratings lies in the fact that the winner takes points from the loser. The number of points at steak depends on the rating difference between the opposing teams. When a team which has high ratings wins again a low-rated team, the losing team loses only a few rating points. On the contrary, when a low-rated teams wins against a high-rated one, larger number of rating points will be transferred. When it is draw, points are shared equally. Mathematics Let’s take, for example, Real Madrid vs. Manchester City. In a match for the second leg of Champion league’s semi-final. They both are high on the list and according to ClubElo rankings, Real Madrid is with 2074 points and Manchester City with 1861 points. If we calculate 5 % of their respective ranking, Real Madrid will risk 104 points and Manchester City 93 and the tota pot will contain 197 points. Taking into account the three possible outcomes of the match, it will look as follows: If Real Madrid wins (1.518*). Their ratings increases by 93 to 2167 and City rating decreases to 1768. If Manchester City wins (6.86*). Their rating increases by 104 to 1965 and Real Madrid’s rating decreases to 1790. In case of a draw (4.64*). The pot (197) shall be divided equally between the two teams 98.5:98.5 in a slight increase to 1866.5 for City and a slight decrease to 2068.5 for Real Madrid. Other factors The above example shows that a draw of 1-1 between the two teams is a better result for City than it is for Real, taking into account that the first match ended in a goalless draw. Thus Real Madrid cannot walk away slightly penalized for not being able to progress to the Champions League final when playing at home. This is one of the flaws of this Elo method. Namely, what we saw above is a basic mathematics. The reality is slightly different because this method does not take into account other factors which affect the game to greater extent. Everyone knows that many other factors are important for the game, and among these is the home advantage factor. Thus, these calculations with the Elo method are usually adjusted to take into account other major circumstances, such as home advantage, goal difference, two-leg matches etc. the Elo ratings of the top 10 teams according to EloClub are as follows: Team Elo value Real Madrid 2081 FC Barcelona 2020 Bayern 1997 Atlético 1950 Juventus 1941 Chelsea 1906 Tottenham 1885 Paris SG 1874 Monaco 1872 Man City 1864 *Last accessed on 24.07.2017 How to use Elo ratings when placing a bet in soccer? As Elo ratings method does not take into account individual players’ conditions, it is very hard to say for sure that its predictive power is on a high level, especially when new circumstances, such as injuries, new managers/players, tactics etc. occur. Thus, bettor should always be aware of these factors when using this method as a reference, as it is always based on past performances. However, it provides good statistical data for calculation of probabilities of the outcomes with great accuracy. Therefore, when searching for value bets, or bets with positive expected value, it can be used as a reliable tool. Thus, it can be especially useful in competitions such as the Champion League round of 16 because the weaker teams have already been eliminated and the final stages are always harder to predict as the competition is nearing towards completion.

The significance of penalty in soccer

July 24, 2017July 21, 2017 by Bet And Win

Very often than not, a team wins or loses after penalty kicks in soccer. This is in general a result of the fact that soccer is a game in which not too many goals are scored and sometimes the only way to determine the winner is through penalty kicks. This is very important for the game; however, is it valuable for bettors and can they rely on penalties when deciding about the performance of a team and which team to place a bet on? What is penalty and when is it performed in soccer? The football court contains a penalty area within and the direct free kick a football player performs inside this area is called a penalty kick. This penalty kick is awarded when a player from the attacking team commits an offence while in the penalty area, in front of the goal of the opposite team. The spot from which this direct kick is performed is 12 yards far from the center of the goal. After being kicked, if the ball bounces back from the goal frame or from the goal keeper, the game continues, but the player who performed the free kick may not be the first player to touch the bounced ball. As no two matches in soccer are the same, how often a penalty occurs varies greatly from one game to another, and also for this to be determined, it is important to take into consideration the rate at which they are converted. However, the rate that penalty shots are in reality conversed into goals is lower than one may believe. Below is shown how often a penalty is awarded and the mean conversion rate over a three season period: League Average penalties per game Average conversion rate Serie A 0.32 75% La Liga 0.28 73% Bundesliga 0.27 76% Ligue 1 0.27 75% Premier League 0.23 80% Who benefits from penalties the most? There is a difference between the rates at which team win and concede penalties. Thus, knowing how to make this difference is of utmost importance for bettors. In the table below are presented the best 10 teams which got the best for/against penalty ratio in the best 5 European leagues: Team Penalties for Penalties against Penalty ratio Barcelona 88 30 2.93 Bayern 79 30 2.63 Bournemouth 43 17 2.53 Chelsea 79 37 2.14 Napoli 76 36 2.11 Real Madrid 91 44 2.07 Man City 74 36 2.06 PSG 67 34 1.97 Borussia Dortmund 48 25 1.92 Leicester 37 20 1.85 It is somewhat easy to calculate the probability of one player to score or the goalkeeper to save a penalty. In order to be able to better understand when a penalty can be scored or missed, the bettors can apply game theory to a penalty kick situation. The player who will perform the penalty kick always makes a strategy, which is called a ‘mixed strategy’, where it will be difficult for the goalkeeper to predict in which direction the ball will go. An important thing for this strategy is whether the player who kicks the penalty is right- or left-footer, meaning which foot he uses when kicking the ball. This choice determines their ‘stronger side’. Those who use the left leg, kick the ball in direction-right and vice-versa. If they want to achieve an optimal result, their choice should be completely random because Game Theory claims that in 61.5 % of the time, players chose their ‘stronger side’. Players such as Yaya Touré, Harry Kane and Mark Noble use a mix strategy without a clear pattern and their mean penalty conversion rate is over 85 %, whereas the league average conversion rate is 80 %. On the other hand, players like Eden Hazard, Christian Benteke and Mario Balotelli use a technique in which they wait for the goalkeeper to dive before kicking the ball. This technique makes the Game Theory less perfect and as a result it brings limitations to it. Why is penalty kick different and more effective than a penalty shootout? Penalty shootouts are not as important for the outcome of the soccer match in betting terms. However, there are differences between the penalty kick during the 90 minutes period, and those taken after these 90 minutes pass. The average conversion rate of 75.8 % during the 90 minutes of the match decrease to 70 % in the period of penalty shootout. The most important reasons for this difference are numerous and they include penalty takers who are not very experienced in this field, the pressure put on the penalty takers and the predictability of the direction in which the ball goes as there is a lack of randomness. Valuable statistics One benefit from penalty kicks for soccer betting is the ability to put a value to penalties in terms of points that have been won or lost during the season. The statistics below may be interesting to see and good to have in mind when placing a bet: Jean-Francois Gillet saved three penalties in a single game for Mechelen vs. Anderlecht (October 2015). Mohamed Jedidi is the player who re-took penalty for several times in a single match. The times he re-took it was six and this was a result of him infringing the rules every time he tried to shoot the ball. (2004 Olympics, Tunisia vs. Montenegro). Yaya Toure is the best penalty taker still actively playing soccer in the top five leagues in European soccer (100% conversion rate from 15 penalties). The most penalties in a single match were missed by Martin Palermo (Argentina vs. Colombia, 1999) – he missed three penalties. Crystal Palace vs. Brighton & Hove Albion in 1989 saw the record for the most penalties awarded in a single 90-minute match, and that was 5.

What is Kelly Criterion in soccer betting?

July 24, 2017July 20, 2017 by Bet And Win

Since bettors are always driven by their motions and bias while betting, the advice is to always look for a mathematical edge when placing a bet. The Kelly Criterion is of great importance in order to determine how much money to place in a bet and bettors should make efforts to learn how to use it. The two most important aspects that matter in soccer betting is how and how much to bet. Since ‘how much to bet’ implies financial decisions, finding the financial products to invest in and how much to subdivide one’s portfolio are the most important issues. Therefore, this is where the Kelly Criterion steps in; or at least a derivative of it. This criterion helps bettors decide how much money to put in a bet when the odds are in favour. In this way, the funds placed in a bet grow vastly. The Kelly Criterion formula is: (BP – Q) / B where: B stands for the decimal odds -1 P stands for the probability of success Q stands for the probability of failure (i.e. 1-p) Explaining the Kelly Criterion using in a coin example The chances that a coin lands on heads are 52 %. Let’s imagine we are betting on whether a coin will land on the heads when tossed. For this, we place a bet at 2.00.Uusing the Kelly Criterion, the calculations are as follows: P= 0.52 Q = 1-0.52 = 0.48 B = 2-1 = 1. The equation: (0.52×1 – 0.48) / 1 = 0.04 Consequently, the Kelly Criterion gives a probability of 4 % that the coin will land on heads. A positive percentage means that the returns may be extraordinary. On the other hand, there are two other popular calculation methods, Fibonacci and Arbitrage; however, they are with higher risk. Why they do not provide explosive returns is that they need precise calculation of the outcome of a match.

The Pythagorean expectation in soccer betting

July 20, 2017July 20, 2017 by Bet And Win

Analytics expert, Mark Taylor, pinpoints the advantages that the Pythagorean expectation may have if used in soccer betting and its potential profits when used on long-term markets. Mathematics can be widely used in soccer betting. Among other things, the Pythagoras’ theorem, which relates to the length of the three sides of a right-angled triangle, is a method which may bring huge profits in soccer betting. How does the Pythagorean expectation work? Primarily used for baseball betting, as an attempt to explain how likely is a team to win in terms of the points or runs they score and allow, the Pythagoras’ theorem served as a basis for the development of this new Pythagorean expectation. Thus, it can be used to predict more than one team’s actual winning percentage. The equation is as follows: Win % = (points or runs scored ^X) / (points or runs scored ^X + points or runs allowed ^X). This method, as previously mentioned, was used primarily in baseball, and later on, it included basketball and American football. Now, it is used with soccer as well. It takes into account scoring events, rather than wins, since scorings are more numerous and they best depict the team’s true strength and abilities. Scoring may come when the team is already very ahead as opposed to its opponent, or ‘surrender’ when they lead by a narrow margin. All of these events may boost or decrease their winning record changing their position in the league. Therefore, we can look at these events as something that is relative and changeable and it can be concluded that when a team performs better than their Pythagorean expectation, it may be considered just ‘lucky’ and vice versa. How to use Pythagorean expectation in soccer betting? The biggest challenge with the Pythagorean expectation is the possibility of a draw in a match unlike certain other sports where this is rarely the case. To these challenge, we can also add the goal scoring environment, as well the fact that sometime, the matches are to be played with less than 11 players due to red cards and all of these circumstances may, to high extent, distort the overall performance of a team. The deviation between Pythagorean expectation and actual outcomes in this sport approaches a minimum at an exponent of 1.35. Since in soccer there will always be a huge amount of draws, the percentage of win often equals the percentage of possible points that a team may win in order to account for a side to be able to pick up a point in a drawn game, although not having scored a point in that match. Following the adaptation, a team may expect to end a season with 57 league points if they had a true win percentage of 50 %, in a 38-game season with three points for a win. In all the season there is a possibility of 114 points at stake. Other adaptations include, varying the exponent for the components of the denominator and numerator in the equation, as well as including a term that comprises the number of goals scored and allowed in the exponent to allow for variations in the goal-scoring environment. Consequently, draws usually happen for teams, both of which score and allow few goals. The opposite is true for teams which score and concede in greater numbers. The extent to which the choice of exponent reduces the RMS error between the expectation and reality of actual points is shown by the gradual decrease in RMSE. An exponent of two gives a RMSE of nearly 10 points per team for the 2014/15 Premier League, this is then reduced to six points if 1.35 is used and additionally to just over 4.4 points if goal environment is included in the exponent. Measuring points over a season The most significant use of the Pythagorean expectation in soccer is to separate the unsustainable element of luck, i.e. if the scoring records of one team corresponds to the number of points that the team scored in one season. Therefore, these statistics will be used to see how one team will perform in the subsequent period. Newcastle won 65 points in 2011/12 and this was nearly 10 more than it was expected by a typical Pythagorean expectation for a team that scored 56 goals and conceded 51. As a team which could only score five more goals than they concede, it was highly unlikely that the high number of goal victories and the few defeats will be repeated. Therefore, as expected, they achieved fewer points in 2012/13. Below is a chart which shows the equal splits if luck played the major role in the over or under performance of a team: Team Number of overperforming seasons Number of underperforming seasons Average points above or below expectation Arsenal 11 12 0.0 Aston Villa 10 13 0.3 Crystal Palace 3 3 0.0 Chelsea 13 10 0.4 Everton 7 16 -0.6 Leicester City 4 5 -1.8 Liverpool 5 18 -1.7 Manchester City 8 10 -1.1 Manchester United 17 6 3.1 Newcastle United 11 10 0.8 Norwich City 5 2 3.3 Southampton 4 12 -1.4 Stoke City 5 2 1.7 Sunderland 7 7 -0.5 Swansea City 1 3 -1.7 Tottenham Hotspur 14 9 1.2 Watford 0 2 -2.4 W.B.A 3 6 -0.6 West Ham United 12 7 1.1 Due to the constant factor in Manchester United, Sir Alex Ferguson, Manchester United may be noted as an exception to this because their final league points are over their scoring and conceding record in 17 of their 23 Premier League seasons. And statistically, it appears however that it is indeed their ability to score winning goals in the last minutes of a match. On the contrary, Liverpool was the underachiever in 18 of 23 seasons. In general, how one team subsequently performs in a league has to do more with keeping with their previous Pythagorean expectation than their previous actual point total. Valuable Pythagorean expectation trends In 1992/93 Norwich … Read more

Margins on soccer betting odds and how to calculate them

July 19, 2017July 17, 2017 by Bet And Win

Long-term profits are very closely related to the margin applied on the soccer betting odds. The lower the margins are, the more they are in favour of the bettor and the larger they are, it gives bigger profit. Below is an explanation on how to calculate margins on 1X2 odds. The soccer betting odds’ margin is actually the price that a bookmaker is charging and the Margin Calculator below gives an idea of how this works and makes it easier for bettors to calculate the margin on a bet. Normally, we will take a match with three possibilities of ending as we need an example of 1X2. For that purpose, we will take the match between Hull City and Leicester City. This match was played at the KCOM Stadium. The opening price for Hull City was 3.41 and for Leicester City it was 2.39. The draw was set to 3.19 Outcome Odds Hull City to win 3.41 Leicester City to win 2.39 Draw 3.19 There are two steps to calculate the margins for 1X2 odds: The odds for all three possible outcomes shall be converted into decimal probability; Solve the equation: Margin = (1/Home Odds) + (1/Away Odds) + (1/Draw Odds) – 1 First, we shall convert each 1X2 market into a decimal chance of winning. This is what actually is inside each set of the brackets in the equation above: (1/Odds). For Hull City, which is the home team, the decimal probability is (1/3.41) = 0.293 (this is actually a 29.3 % chance of winning). On the other hand, the draw shall be (1/3.19) which equals 0.313 and Leicester is (1/2.39) which equals 0.418. And second, we will substitute the numbers above as is shown in the formula in order to calculate the margin. Margin = (0.293) + (0.418) + (0.313) – 1. Thus, the margin is 0.024 or 2.4 %. Various types of bookmaker’s margins The odds above are just an example of how one bookmaker offers odds. There are other bookmakers who will offer slightly different odds, and normally the profit may differ drastically. For example, what another bookmaker could offer for the same match is 3.10 for Hull City, 2.10 for Leicester and 2.90 for draw. The margin in this example turns out to be 10 % which is huge and more than five times more expensive than in the previous example. Thus, if a bettor placed $100 bet on Hull City to win on the 1X2 market, he would have won $31 more if playing with the bookmaker whose margin was 2.4 %. The crucial thing in soccer betting is learning how to make more sophisticated decisions. Thus bettors should first educate themselves and then place bets. This includes checking other margins before making the final choice and placing the final bet. They should always look for bookmakers with risk management model which are in a position to offer better value than the rest.

The Better Alternative to Soccer Betting Tips

December 20, 2018July 14, 2017 by Bet And Win

The Better Alternative to Soccer Betting Tips Information is essential to live bettors, and this is even more important than wasting time looking for valuable soccer betting tips. By getting valuable and reliable information, bettors get a better perspective of the outcome of the game and the profit they get. Below is the reason why. Better Alternative to Soccer Betting Tips Instead of googling and looking for better soccer betting tips online, smart bettors are searching for valuable information which can lead them to valuable rewards. The most important thing is to get to hold to information beforehand. This means that you get the best reap if you know the information before it goes known for the wider public. Or, at least before the information get to the bookmaker. Once bookmakers learn about the news, they adjust the odds and the rewards will not be as valuable as before. Thus, the hint is always to try and learn what others don’t know ahead of time. A successful bettor is the one who mostly manages to ‘beat the closing line’. A closing line may be defined as the last odds that are offered before the market closes. If a bettor constantly beats the closing line, then they are placing a bet which gives a great return to the odds that are finally offered. When a bettor receives information, it does not mean they know which side will win. However, this information will help them ‘beat the closing line’. Knowing how one team will perform in the match provides bettors with the best value odds. As far as information is concerned, bettors may acquire them from different sources. The most common ones include news feed in digital media, insider information which provides them with team news, the condition of players and whether there are some financial issues within the team, a problem which may happen rather often. Why betting tips are not to be trusted completely? No matter how valuable information soccer betting tips provide, tipsters usually have and give their own subjective opinion. Although very often tipsters gain a very good reputation during time based on their excellent record and knowledge, these information and predictions are very often a result of pure luck. On the other hand, valuable information from reliable sources is something which can be considered a fact, and it goes without saying that a fact is a fact. In general, many people may have access to certain insider information at any time; however, the principle of first come-first served gives bettors an edge. Soccer betting tips vs. insider information The most common type of information bettors can use is team news before anyone else. But, other kinds of information which are more valuable are those which include news about other, not very famous teams and this information is more beneficial in soccer betting. For example, Weymouth F.C. in the Conference Premier in February 2009 was experiencing serious financial difficulties. Although Weymouth won against Torquay by 2-0, they lost 3-0 at home to Stevenage and had to play Rushden and Diamonds next, which were slight favourite. Weymouth first team was not paid its medical insurance and thus its youth team was fielded instead of the first team. Consequently, Weymouth lost by 9-0 and this changed the odds completely. Beware of rumours In the modern digital era, getting hold of information is quite easy, especially with the existence of social media. Twitter is one of the platforms which provides more information and hence everyone claims to have important information. However, how can one know if the information is true? The Internet provides plentiful of information, but unfortunately no one guarantees f their credibility and reliability. Statistically, false information is far more numerous than accurate information and using various information may only backfire if they happen to be false and without any foundation. Thus, bettors are always advised to use information from sources which can be checked, trusted, and which the bettor knows that are reliable. Only in this way betting can return in large amount of money.

The secret behind Handicap soccer betting

July 21, 2017July 11, 2017 by Bet And Win

The article below deals with soccer handicap betting and how it works. It also provides a hint on how to become a pro in handicap betting. The main principle of sport is the competition between two opposing teams which have different qualities and strength when competing against one another. This principle is valid for soccer as well. The bigger this difference is in size, the greater the chances of winning of the favourite team are. This difference depends of various factors, but most significant is the historical dominance of the team, alongside with the financial support one team is provided. Moreover, the home-field advantage plays also a valuable role in the success rate of the team, as well as the availability of the team players and the injuries, past and present among them. All of the factors provided above form the indicators of the chances of success for each side in the match, and this is presented in the form of odds. The principle of Handicap betting As previously mentioned, the teams in soccer already have difference in perceived abilities and strength. The more significant this difference is, the smaller the betting odds on the favourite team. This makes betting on that team less or not attractive at all since the returns the bettors can get are minimal and thus they have no or little incentives for doing so. What bettors usually do, when betting in soccer, is backing their strong favourite by using the old technique of 1X2 bet. However, there is a fresh new way in the betting world which provides more value to the money-the Handicap betting. Handicap betting is all about levelling the playing-field. This is done so as to balance the playing-field and in this fashion, each side is given a positive and a negative goal handicap accordingly. Thus, one of the two sides gets a greater number of goals for betting purposes, i.e. a ‘head start’. The odds are then calculated on the basis of that ‘head start’. Therefore, a Handicap is a numerical figure which is provided by the bookmaker in order to challenge the difference in abilities of the opponents, and thus creating more appealing odds. Asian handicap Handicap betting, which is also known as ‘Asian handicap’ betting, can be divided into three types: Level Handicap, Single Handicap and Split Handicap. When there is no difference in strength and abilities between the two teams, then no Handicap shall be assigned to either of the teams and they start with 0 goals. It is up to the bettor to identify the winning team and to place the bet on it. This is especially handy as it eliminates the draw and should the match end in a tie, then bets are refunded. With a zero result, neither of the teams is in any advantage. On the other hand, when there is a perceived difference between the teams’ abilities, Single Handicap is applied and this is done in the following manner: the presumed superior team is given goal handicap for the purposes of levelling the playing-field for betting purposes. For example, it is given -0.5 goal, -1 goal, -1.5 goals etc. Accordingly, when one bets on Team X with a handicap of -1 goal, this team must score and win the game by more than 1 goal. In this way, it will cover their handicap and the bettor will win the bet. If, on the other hand, it wins only by 1 goal, because of the applied handicap, the result will be a draw for betting purposes and the bet is refunded. Finally, the bettor loses the bet placed on Team X if Team Y draws or wins the match. Split Handicap The third possibility in Handicap betting is the Split Handicap. This applies when the difference in abilities is small. In this option, the bettor splits the stake over two handicaps. For example, if Team X is given 0 and -0.5 goals and the bettor places the bet on Team X, three scenarios are possible. If Team X loses the match, both bets are lost because they did not cover either handicap. In case of a draw, half of the stake which is at (0) will be refunded and the other half at (-0.5) will be lost. Finally, if Team X wins, the both bets win since both of the handicaps will be covered. CONCLUSION If you are following the old-fashioned 1X2 fixed odds betting, you are probably not very successful in getting worthy returns on your investments in soccer betting. The insight into the fresh form of Handicap betting provided in this article will surely provide you with increased chances of returning your investments. The odds in Handicap betting are more reliable and more beneficial because the whole concept provides more winning possibilities. The whole pattern of betting may seem more difficult; however, once you have it all figured out, it is quite simple.