The new betting scheme in soccer: betting on cards

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The new betting scheme in soccer: betting on cards

Lately bettors have found a new way to place money in soccer betting and this new way is betting on cards. It is a drift from the classical 1X2, Handicap or Total betting. Below, you may find out how to bet on cards and which data can you use to place better and reliable bets.

It is always useful and handy to find a relatively unknown sport, develop a good knowledge and reap the benefits from betting in it. Or, just discover a specialist market in more popular sports. When finding a specialist market is in question, then corners betting in soccer can be taken into account.

What successful bettors do is getting information less known to other bettors and make use of them for their own benefit. This is especially true when talking about the bookmakers odd. When a bettor knows something a bookmaker doesn’t, then the bettor is able to take advantage of that knowledge. However, even without that extra info, one can find something valuable to bet in, like cards betting.

What is the benefit of cards betting?

When we talk about learning the information that bookmakers don’t know about, it is worth noting that we don’t imply that bookmakers are uninformed about certain stuff happening in the betting world.

However, all the energy and resources are put in the more popular markets mentioned above, like 1X2, Handicap or Total, so that bookmakers don’t have enough time to spend on the cards betting market. And this is the opportunity to be taken as an advantage by bettors who want to explore new betting markets. Also, the more reliable method for betting on cards is the analytical approach, compared to the other markets, due to the fact that soccer sees less scoring.

How to bet on cards?

There are various markets for betting on cards in soccer. Just as in the other  markets, here the Handicap and Total cards markets are offered for the Champions League, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Serie A and all of them use a points system.

A booking (yellow card) is worth 1 point and a red card is worth 2 points because two yellow cards result in a red, this is worth 3 points (one for the yellow card and 2 for the red after a second yellow was shown).

In Totals cards betting, he bookmaker sets a figure for the combined cards points and then the bettor is able to choose to place the bet on the actual figure which is over or under the bookmaker’s figure.

If Tottenham Hotspur was playing against Crystal Palace, the total might be 4.5. Here we have two bookings for Tottenham (2 points) and three bookings for Crystal Palace (3 points) and this will be an over bet on the Totals would win – anything less and the bet would be a loss.

The Handicap card betting is the same as in the other handicap markets. Here one side is offered a + and the other side a – to counter a perceived bias.

An example for this would be Tottenham Hotspur -1 and Crystal Palace +1. According to this, Tottenham would have to accumulate 2 more cards points than Crystal palace for the Handicap bet to be successful. Therefore, if Palace accumulated the same cards points or even more, the bet put on them would win. If Tottenham scored one more point than palace, the result would be a push).

Analysis of cards betting

Bettors must consider various of factors before placing a bet on cards. Taking into account the data from the Premier league from the season 2013/14 until now, we can see that some of the most useful statistics are the tackles per game (TPG), fouls per game (FPG) and the average number of cards per game (CPG).

Below we can see these statistics for each team in the Premier League 2013/14. Keep in mind that these table do not show the accumulation of these fouls and cards (for example, if a team is an underdog, if they are the favourite, if they are losing or winning).

Teams Average TPG Average FPG Average CPG
Arsenal  18.8 9.6 1.5
Bouremouth  16.9 9.8 1.4
Burnley 15.9 10.9 1.8
Chelsea 19.3 10.6 1.8
Crystal Palace 19.7 12.5 1.8
Everton  18.9 10.1 1.6
Hull City 18.7 11.1 1.7
Leicester City 19.9 11.6 1.5
Liverpool 21.4 10.7 1.6
Manchester City 18.9 12.1 1.9
Manchester United 18.9 12.1 1.9
Middlesbrough 20.4 12.2 2.0
Southampton  20.2 11.7 1.6

From the data we can see that Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur have an above average number of FPG and receive an above average number of CPG. It is worth noting that these teams are possession-centric. On the other hand, teams like WBA and West Ham make fewer TPG, make less FPG and get less CPG. These teams are more defensive.

There are however some teams which make their opponents commit more FPG and therefore receive more CPG. The table below gives evidence of this, using the same sample of data as above:

Teams OFPG Average OCPG
Arsenal  11.3 2.0
Bouremouth 12.2 1.9
Burnley 11.1 1.8
Chelsea 12.5 2.4
Crystal Palace 11.6 1.7
Everton 11.8 1.7
Hull City 11.1 1.6
Leicester City 9.4 1.6
Liverpool 11.3 1.9
Manchester City 10.1 1.8
Manchester United  11.1 1.8
Middlesbrough 10.8 1.7
Southampton  10.7 1.4

 

In these cases, underdogs usually have to chase the ball and make more TPG and FPG and the side that is losing will be forced to do the same the later it gets into a game.

Most of the cards are usually given for fouls and bettors should always keep this in mind. Other times when fouls are given is for simulation, taking of jersey during celebration and getting onto the pitch without permission. And all of these situations account for less than 1 percent of cards.

The role of the referee

Although all the referees follow the same rules for giving cards, some referees give more cards than others and this fact should be also taken into consideration when booking on cards.

The average number of CPG shown by referees in the Premier League from 2013/14 season onwards:

 

Referee 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 Average
Andre Marriner 3.8 4.4 3.7 3.8 3.9
Anthony Taylor 3.6 3.9 3.6 4.2 3.8
Craig Pawson 2.8 3.6 3.2 4.1 3.4
Graham Scott 4.3 3.2 3.8
Jonathan Moss 3.2 3.9 3.0 4.5 3.7
Kevin Friend 3.3 4.3 3.1 4.5 3.8
Lee Mason 3.0 3.0 2.6 3.7 3.1
Mark Clattenburg 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5
Martin Atkinson 3.3 4.1 3.4 3.7 3.6
Michael Oliver 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.6
Mike Dean 3.8 4.4 3.5 4.3 4.3
Mike Jones 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.4 3.2
Neil Swarbrick 3.6 4.1 3.2 3.9 3.7
Paul Tierney 3.0 2.9 3.0
Robert Madley 3.4 2.55 2.9 4.1 3.2
Roger East 4.2 3.2 2.9 3.8 3.5
Stuart Attwell 3.3 3.2 3.3

There are still so many things and factors to consider before betting on cards in soccer. However, with the input so far, as a bettor, you will be far more in advance than the other bettors, and more importantly, the bookmaker.