Back in the 2011 MLB season, things were coming to a head around late August. The likes of the Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers, New York Yankees, and Detroit Tigers had all stamped their authority on their divisions, and they were locked in for a place in the postseason. In the NL Central, few were paying attention to the St Louis Cardinals, who were, at one point, 10.5 games back in the NL Wild Card race.
The Cardinals’ odds for a World Series win were around 1,000/1 at one point. Yet, the team went on a rip to secure a Wild Card spot on the final day of the regular season, then duly obliged through the postseason, becoming World Series winners after dispatching the Texas Rangers over seven games.
The Cardinals’ comeback season is one of the best in sports history, arguably on a par with Leicester City’s Premier League title win in 2016. It is, of course, a rare event to see such a comeback, but it does happen in baseball and other sports. Right now in MLB, we can point to the Baltimore Orioles, LA Dodgers, and Cleveland Guardians as the teams leading the MLB odds for a World Series win in 2024. But can we find any teams that offer betting value? Let’s look at some who might be worth a shot, even if the odds are stacked against them:
Boston Red Sox
Current odds circa 50/1
Currently fighting it out for a Wild Card spot in the American League East, the Sox have had a strange season thus far. Few expected them to be competitive, but they have defied the naysayers to rattle the teams around them. The AL East is a brutal division, containing the Orioles and Yankees, both of whom have serious World Series aspirations, but the Sox just won’t go away. For a period across May and June, they held the best record in MLB. Our main reservation is that the Sox’ management was not aggressive enough going into the MLB trade deadline. But nobody will want to meet them should they nick a Wild Card spot. This is a team whose history is built on shocking baseball.
San Diego Padres
Odds circa 30/1
The Padres have been tagged as one of those teams that always threatens to be a World Series winner – the next season. But why not this season? They’ve been hot since coming back from the All-Star Break, and they have every chance to cement a Wild Card spot, perhaps even rein in the Dodgers in the NL West. Jurickson Profar has become the clutch batter they have lacked in recent seasons.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Odds circa 22/1 – 50/1
Some sportsbooks are as high as 50/1 on the Diamondbacks, whereas others only offer half those odds. They are in a race with the Padres and Dodgers in the NL West, but they arguably have more momentum. What’s more, they may get some key pitchers healthy for the final stretch. Everything could add up nicely, and if you can get the higher odds, it might be well worth the risk.
Kansas City Royals
Odds circa 40/1
The Royals vie with the Minnesota Twins and Red Sox, as well as the outsiders Tampa Bay Rays (see below) for the AL Wild Card spots. They have a true “ringer” in Bobby Witt Jr., the kind of player you can build a championship narrative around. Some key fixtures in late August will tell us all we need to know about the Royals’ postseason credentials.
Tampa Bay Rays
Odds circa 100/1 – 225/1
Finishing with a team that would provide the biggest longshot of all. The Rays are currently 4th in AL East, with two of the best teams in baseball – the Orioles and Yankees – well ahead of them, as well as the unshakeable Red Sox. Right now, though, they have a better record than the Houston Astros, a team that is priced around 12/1 to win the World Series. That tells you a lot. If they can somehow steal a Wild Card spot in that brutal AL East, the Rays can head to the postseason with some momentum.
