The NFL preseason has begun. Players are back in training and warm-up games will take place across late August and into early September. The regular season itself will begin on the 5th of September with a blockbuster fixture – pitting the Baltimore Ravens against the reigning champs, the Kansas City Chiefs.
The game features two of the contenders for the Super Bowl, with the Chiefs installed as co-favourites overall to win it all next February. The latest NFL betting lines point to a Chiefs’ victory, but will it mean Kansas is ready to do what no team has done before by winning three consecutive Super Bowls?
It’s a tough question. Right now, the Chiefs sit on the top of the betting markets right beside the San Francisco 49ers. Both teams odds are around +550 (11/2). It makes sense that the pair are tied at the top, as they are the best teams from the NFC and AFC respectively. They met in Super Bowl LVIII in February, and the Chiefs required a lot of luck in a narrow victory.
Do the Chiefs offer betting value?
Yet, for bettors, the question is not whether they can win again – of course, they can – but whether they should be backed to so again. Or another way of putting it, do the Chiefs offer betting value at this point in the preseason?
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The first thing to look at is the success rate of preseason favourites overall. Over the last 20 seasons, four teams with preseason favourite status have gone on to win the Super Bowl. We should add the caveat that bookmakers will not always agree on the favourite. That said, you can still see that we are looking at a strike rate, as they say in horse racing, of about 20%. Not great.
The Chiefs’ odds translate to an implied probability of 15.4%, so it doesn’t really smack of value. Certainly, you would not want to be backing them at odds lower than that. The argument then becomes about considering whether the Chiefs are far enough ahead of the competition to merit backing at those odds. And that’s debatable.
A roster of champions returns in full health
Conversely, you are looking at a team with everything going for it – brilliant attack, solid in defence – and a truly great quarterback in Patrick Mahomes. You might compare it to Manchester City’s squad and the club’s transfer business this summer: there was little that needs to be fixed in the City winning machine beyond a few tweaks. If it’s not broken, why try to fix it? The Chiefs took a similar approach this offseason.
The NFL offseason has been generally quite quiet. Certainly, there have been no blockbuster moves, with teams really going for it. But we can point to some teams that have arguably improved, including the 49ers and the Houston Texans. The latter could easily be a banana skin for the Chiefs as they negotiate their way through the AFC side of the Playoff bracket.
Some will point to the fact that the feat of three consecutive Super Bowl wins has never been achieved before, but those kinds of records are there to be broken. The experience of the Chiefs will also count when it comes to the Playoffs, something that teams like the Texans will sorely lack. Still, there are several teams – the Lions, Texans, Ravens, Packers – that look improved from last season, and all of them gained valuable Playoff experience last year.
Value can be found further down the markets
Overall, we would suggest caution from bettors. Chiefs fans may be tempted to lump on their team to make history, but to blindly back the favourite has been a recipe for losing bets in modern NFL. The Chiefs’ odds feel about right for a team that has won three of the last five Super Bowls, but that does not guarantee it will be four from six.
It might be better to back some of the outsiders showing promise, with the aforementioned Texans, Bills, and Dolphins all available at big odds if you shop around. You might even look at the New York Jets, who are available at 25/1 with some bookmakers. The Jets have a lot of ifs hanging over them – with the biggest one being Aaron Rodgers. Yet, if things go right, they have a real chance.
