Does is make a difference when a goal is scored in a season in soccer? Do the first six games in a season weigh more than the other goals and does it matter when the three points are scored? Below you may find the answers to these questions.
As we know, every game in soccer gets a maximum of three points if won. And yes, it matters whether these points are gained in one win or in another one.
If we analyze the teams and how they play in the first six games of the season, we can come to a conclusion whether this affects their overall position in the league and whether their first six games play any role in how they place themselves in a season.
Why do the six games matter?
If we take the Premier League as an example, we can see that the list is randomly complied and it is broken down in five sets. Therefore, each team will play three home games in the first six games and also three away games.
The first six games are very important because from them we can see how the prospects are for one team. The beginning of a season usually offers new players, new managers and a new venue to play in and all of this influences on the performance of one team.
Statistics
The past three Premier League seasons show average points per game (PPG) that each team won and the table after six games. At the end of the season this is compared to the teams’ PPG (38 games) and the final league table.
Although it is true that those teams which perform extraordinarily in the first six games, continue to be in the top position throughout the whole season, sometimes there are exertions to this rule and expectation. Some of them continue to be not even in the mean positions, but also worse than that. An example of this is Aston Villa, which dropped from 6th to 17th in 2014/15.
However, only two times has the winner of the Premier League been outside of the top four after six games since 38 game season was introduced in 1995/96 – (Manchester United moved from 10th to 1st in 2002/03 and Manchester City won the league although they were 7th after six games in 2013/140.
Similarly to this fashion, there are teams which did not win a lot of points in the first six games, during in the remaining time of the season, they tend have many difficulties. However, an exception to this is Southampton, which rose from 16th after six games to 6th after 38 in 2015/16.
Can this data be beneficial for bettors?
This data can be used by bettors and provide them with some benefits, but only if used while taking into accounts other factors during, let’s say a Premier League season. Other factors which bettors can take into consideration is the assessment if a team is still valuable after a good or bad start and thus, their chances of winning the league can be analyzed.
On the other hand, this data can also be used to measure performance and it can be a valuable source for predicting how individual matches will end. This, together with other betting models, like Poisson distribution and an expected goals model will also help bettors bet more strategically.