Very often than not, a team wins or loses after penalty kicks in soccer. This is in general a result of the fact that soccer is a game in which not too many goals are scored and sometimes the only way to determine the winner is through penalty kicks. This is very important for the game; however, is it valuable for bettors and can they rely on penalties when deciding about the performance of a team and which team to place a bet on? What is penalty and when is it performed in soccer? The football court contains a penalty area within and the direct free kick a football player performs inside this area is called a penalty kick. This penalty kick is awarded when a player from the attacking team commits an offence while in the penalty area, in front of the goal of the opposite team. The spot from which this direct kick is performed is 12 yards far from the center of the goal. After being kicked, if the ball bounces back from the goal frame or from the goal keeper, the game continues, but the player who performed the free kick may not be the first player to touch the bounced ball. As no two matches in soccer are the same, how often a penalty occurs varies greatly from one game to another, and also for this to be determined, it is important to take into consideration the rate at which they are converted. However, the rate that penalty shots are in reality conversed into goals is lower than one may believe. Below is shown how often a penalty is awarded and the mean conversion rate over a three season period: League Average penalties per game Average conversion rate Serie A 0.32 75% La Liga 0.28 73% Bundesliga 0.27 76% Ligue 1 0.27 75% Premier League 0.23 80% Who benefits from penalties the most? There is a difference between the rates at which team win and concede penalties. Thus, knowing how to make this difference is of utmost importance for bettors. In the table below are presented the best 10 teams which got the best for/against penalty ratio in the best 5 European leagues: Team Penalties for Penalties against Penalty ratio Barcelona 88 30 2.93 Bayern 79 30 2.63 Bournemouth 43 17 2.53 Chelsea 79 37 2.14 Napoli 76 36 2.11 Real Madrid 91 44 2.07 Man City 74 36 2.06 PSG 67 34 1.97 Borussia Dortmund 48 25 1.92 Leicester 37 20 1.85 It is somewhat easy to calculate the probability of one player to score or the goalkeeper to save a penalty. In order to be able to better understand when a penalty can be scored or missed, the bettors can apply game theory to a penalty kick situation. The player who will perform the penalty kick always makes a strategy, which is called a ‘mixed strategy’, where it will be difficult for the goalkeeper to predict in which direction the ball will go. An important thing for this strategy is whether the player who kicks the penalty is right- or left-footer, meaning which foot he uses when kicking the ball. This choice determines their ‘stronger side’. Those who use the left leg, kick the ball in direction-right and vice-versa. If they want to achieve an optimal result, their choice should be completely random because Game Theory claims that in 61.5 % of the time, players chose their ‘stronger side’. Players such as Yaya Touré, Harry Kane and Mark Noble use a mix strategy without a clear pattern and their mean penalty conversion rate is over 85 %, whereas the league average conversion rate is 80 %. On the other hand, players like Eden Hazard, Christian Benteke and Mario Balotelli use a technique in which they wait for the goalkeeper to dive before kicking the ball. This technique makes the Game Theory less perfect and as a result it brings limitations to it. Why is penalty kick different and more effective than a penalty shootout? Penalty shootouts are not as important for the outcome of the soccer match in betting terms. However, there are differences between the penalty kick during the 90 minutes period, and those taken after these 90 minutes pass. The average conversion rate of 75.8 % during the 90 minutes of the match decrease to 70 % in the period of penalty shootout. The most important reasons for this difference are numerous and they include penalty takers who are not very experienced in this field, the pressure put on the penalty takers and the predictability of the direction in which the ball goes as there is a lack of randomness. Valuable statistics One benefit from penalty kicks for soccer betting is the ability to put a value to penalties in terms of points that have been won or lost during the season. The statistics below may be interesting to see and good to have in mind when placing a bet: Jean-Francois Gillet saved three penalties in a single game for Mechelen vs. Anderlecht (October 2015). Mohamed Jedidi is the player who re-took penalty for several times in a single match. The times he re-took it was six and this was a result of him infringing the rules every time he tried to shoot the ball. (2004 Olympics, Tunisia vs. Montenegro). Yaya Toure is the best penalty taker still actively playing soccer in the top five leagues in European soccer (100% conversion rate from 15 penalties). The most penalties in a single match were missed by Martin Palermo (Argentina vs. Colombia, 1999) – he missed three penalties. Crystal Palace vs. Brighton & Hove Albion in 1989 saw the record for the most penalties awarded in a single 90-minute match, and that was 5.
