Day: September 19, 2017

Is the first goal in soccer of crucial significance for the final outcome?

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first goal soccer After scoring the first goal at a soccer match, it is easier to predict the final outcome of the match. This is due to the fact that soccer is a game in which not a lot goals a scored per match. Therefore, the first goal should not be considered as invaluable. But, how can bettors use this information to place valuable bets? In order to bet accordingly, bettors are always able to use historic data in order to predict how likely it is for a team to win a match. Naturally, the most important event in soccer is a goal and in live soccer betting, bettors are able to place money on events they already have background knowledge about and the first goal therefore is of utmost importance for this prediction. Understanding the bet odds and knowing how to bet is the primary skill every bettor should posses. Once these skills are acquired, bettors may move towards learning how to bet on Over/Under and use a Handicap soccer betting strategy. Does the first goal as a rule lead to a win? Not all the teams are equal, but if we look at the last seven seasons from the Premier League, we can see that in 69 % of the matches, the team that scored the first goal also won the match. In 19 % the match ended up in a draw and in 12 % of the games, the team managed to win although was not the first one to score. These stats can be seen in the table below: Proportion of Premier League gamew won, drawn or lost when scoring first by strength of team. 2009/10 to 2015/16 first goal soccer The table shows that if a team from the top four gives the first goal soccer, that team will win the matches in 4 out of 5 occasions. On the contrary, a team from the bottom four will have very bad chances of winning. How important is the team ability in regard of chances for a comeback? If we break down the total percentages of wins, draws or losses we can see that they are completely flipped when a team concedes first: Proportion of Premier League gamew won, drawn or lost when conceding first by strength of team. 2009/10 to 2015/16 According to the table, one team which is among the top four teams will lose in only 6.1 % of the games in which they gave the first goal. On the contrary, a team from the bottom four teams will only win in 6.4 % of the matches in which it leads with the opening first goal. Having all this information in mind, bettors may make reliable predictions about the outcomes of the match based on the first opening goal. Various odds and probabilities after the first goal The odds in a life soccer match are variables which are continuously changing throughout the match and due to different situations within the match. The table below shows the odds that were offered immediately after the first goal. Having this into consideration, we will see the difference between what was predicted to happen after the first goal and the actual outcome of the match. The table shows that a team which was in the first four teams had a difference of only 3 %. This means that the odds that were given to it to win, after it scored the first goal, were 72 % possibility of victory. It turned out that it won in 75 % of the matches. As the best and worst teams are always the easiest to predict, the smallest amount of variations is always within them. If we are seeing this from a bettor’s point of view, it is the most advantageous to bet on a team between the 5th and 8th place, and which lost after they scored the first goal. This is so because the odds implied a probability of 5.9 % higher than the amount of times it actually happened. However, this only happened six times last season and thus it is always very difficult to predict when it will happen. Namely, four of the six times were played away and the two home defeats (for Southampton) were against Manchester United and Chelsea and taken altogether, all these results were expected. What more to have in mind? The most important factors to consider, besides the statistics above, before placing a bet in live soccer betting, based on a first goal, are numerous and they include: whether the side which scored the first plays at home or away, when was the goal scored and how far is the season, because the later in the season, the more risks are taken by the trailing teams. However, relying only on the statistics is not the most reliable option for bettors. However, as with everything, there are always exceptions and the exceptions cannot be predicted. The odds for the home team when it first scored a goal, in the matches between Arsenal and Sawnsea and Tottenham and Newcastle, were 90 % chance of winning. However, a turnover happened, and the other side won in both of the cases. All the information listed above are only one way to help you as a bettor place a valuable bet and they should be always compared to the odds that are offered immediately after the first goal has been scored. first goal soccer Soccer Betting Resources

How to make a live soccer betting strategy?

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How to make a live soccer betting strategy? How can bettors know where to look for reliable opportunities which may have big returns within soccer matches in progress? Bettors have to always take advantage of market inefficiencies. This means that they should always calculate when the odds do not reflect the true probability. When it comes to live betting, bettors should try and discover those specific areas and exploit these inefficiencies. The notion very often used by commentators ‘it only takes a second to score a goal’ is pretty accurate. Because of the great number of potential goals during a soccer match, the life of a live soccer bettor is quite interesting. Quite the opposite, the number of scored goals from these opportunities is relatively small. According to statistics, goals never come in series and this makes them random also. Therefore, we can never expect one goal to be the trigger for a next one. The job that live bettors need to do is to predict something which is both rare and even more random. Complex statistical models are used by professional bettors and bookmakers. These try to predict goal distribution. However, as football is played by living beings, and not robots, and humans as they are, show various tendencies. The bettor must be able to understand and quantify the impact of those and to recognise when the outcomes that are estimated are not in line with their impact. The data for the Premier League season of 2011/12, over six intervals of 15 minutes, will be analyzed in terms of goal distribution. How to make a live soccer betting strategy? When scoring of goals is more likely to occur? According to Graph 1, goals are more likely to occur as the match progresses and in the period that leas to half time, there is a slight increase. In the final, sixth, interval, the chances of scoring a goal are the highest and almost double that of the first interval. Graph 2 below contains the same data for Reading (up to February 11th 2013).   In the final 15 minutes of the match, the rate of scoring increased three times compared to the first 15 minutes and over four times compared to the period between 46-60 minutes. This data show that Reading plays in a slightly different mode than an average teams and therefore it is of great significance to know this information. The information above may affect the live bettor in two completely opposite ways. On the one hand, if a bettor watched Reading play all the time, he may be forced to over-estimate the number of times a team scores near the end of the match. If a bettor has not watched Reading play at all, they may make wrong estimation of how Reading will perform near the end of the game, if they want to place a bet on Reading. Later in the season Reading may start regressing to the mean values of the other teams, but there is still an opportunity to exploit and see what is nehind it, whether it is only a minor deviation from the average or something more significant. Intensity of the game Bettors can access a lot of available data while the game is on, such as 5 possession, shots (on and off target) and corners, which may held define the game intensity. Therefore, they are able to make good assessment of who is leading. However, as they are freely available to everyone, these data should always be used in combination with subjective analysis. A professional bettors should be able to sense where certain odds are over-valuing one team which is playing at an unsustainable pace. Case 1 In the Copa del Rey semi-final between Real Madrid and Barcelona on January 30th at the Bernabeu, in the El Clasico meeting of 2013, Real was superior over Barca in the first half. However, the pace that Real adopted was simply unsustainable. It would have been a huge mistake to bet on Real and to predict the final outcome in the first 45 minutes of the match. Case 2 Champions League 2012 final between Bayern Munich and Chelsea is another example. It also gave misleading stats based purely on possession and interaction. Bayern were superior on one hand, but the other important element was Chelsea’s tactical intention to call for pressure and try to land a lucky counter-punch. They made a game plan, followed it, and won on penalties. If bettors were only following the statistics of the game would have never placed a bet on Chelsea to win the trophy. As seen from everything above, what bettors should always keep in mind is that the intensity of a game is something that is never a constant. The balance of possession can be altered by things like crowd intensity, adrenalin and situational factors, such as: ⦁ Derby games ⦁ Cup games ⦁ Relegation/Promotion battles ⦁ Tournaments Under the above mentioned circumstances, the best thing a bettor could do is to see the game as two separate halves. Even the relatively simple concepts for live soccer betting should encourage bettors to upgrade their knowledge further in order to become more informed in the future. making a live soccer betting strategy

Do bookings have effect on live soccer betting?

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Soccer Betting Resources One of the most significant events at a soccer match is the red card. The article below shows the importance of both red and yellow card (bookings), how the game is affected by them, what are the adjustments the managers do and how are teams put in disadvantageous positions because of bookings. How does a red card change the game? The immediate effect of a red card is undoubtedly the loss of a player. But, statistics show how this affects negatively and to which extend a team is affected when one player receives a red card. In a sample of 60 Premier League games in 2012, where a team received a red card, in 20 % of the games teams had a decrease in points compared to their predicted points which were based on the score before the player was given a red card. In a sample of 20 teams in the Premier League, which were in a draw at the time of receiving the red card, 65 % lost the game in the end, 30 % ended up in a draw and only 5 % of them managed to win. In a study by Titman et al. (2012) treats the matter of what are the benefits that teams that play against a team which has received a red card. The findings from the study are that the rate of goals scored by the team without a red card earned increases for 64.5 %. Other studies treating this matter in the Premier League seasons show that if a team loses a player in the first minute, due to a red card, their average goal difference in the game would be reduced by about 1.5 goals. This decreases to 0.85 if a red card is given to a player at half time and to 0.62 at 60 minutes. This means that the longer a team is without a player, the worse off they will be. Taking the above into consideration, a bettor is able to measure if live odds have been adjusted to reflect the red card events and also to measure the effects of yellow card, which the most common indicators to red cards. What is the significance of the yellow card? The bettors should acknowledge the importance of the yellow card because a yellow card is one step to a red one. Therefore, the probability that a player will get a red card grows as more and more yellow cards are given in the course of a game and according to Titman et al. (2012), a yellow card to any of the player on a team in the Premier League more than doubles the hazard of a straight red card to any other player on that team. Another curious fact, according to Titman, is that a team’s booking rate increases by 25 % if the opposing team receives a yellow card and this reinforces the notion that referees have a tendency to ‘even up’ decisions during the game. How do managers change tactics after cards? The situation when a team loses a player due to a red card requires reaction by the manager to change his tactics. In this way, the bettors should be able to think like the manager and correctly weigh the situation to determine how important is the player that was sent off to the team, how the card affects the shape of the team, what can be done to smooth the situation and how the red card will affect the rival. If we analyze the last 16 Champions League second-leg game between Manchester United and Real Madrid in 2013, we can see how a red card makes impact on the game. United were controlling the game and nullified Madrid’s potent attack by using Danny Welbeck to restrict Madrid’s most creative player Xabi Alonso, after the score of an own goal made by Sergio Ramos. This put Manchester United in a leading position with 2-1. However, in the 56th minute, the winger Nani was sent off and besides having one man less, United also had to move Welbeck to left midfield so that they are able to preserve their second bank of four – and this allowed Alonso to roam free and become more creative. In just four minutes, Madrid’s manager Jose Mourinho made a substitution where he replaced Arbeola with Luka Modric and swapping Sami Khedira to right back. All of these events changed the game and with Modric controlling the centre of midfield with passing sequences and delivered the equaliser, collecting a pass some 20 metres from goal. After the equalisation, Real retained the ball and scored their second goal within 13 minutes of Nani’s red card. Does being away place teams at a disadvantage? As we have already written about the Home Field Advantage, home teams are always in a slight advantage than the away teams. But, is it possible that they also get help by the referees? Statistics from the Champions League, from 2002-2007, show that in only 24.3 % of games, the home team received more yellow cards than the away team. This suggests that perhaps the probabilities of yellow and red cards are different for home and away teams. In that period between 2002-2007, home teams received red cards in 6.42 % of games, whereas the away teams received them in 11.82 % of games. Therefore, in percentages, away teams earned red cards 84 % more often than home teams. On the other hand, in 82.89 % of the games, there no red cards. According to Anders & Rotthoff from 2004 to 2009, the effect of cards on the home team is different to that of the away team. Titman et al. (2012) found that a home red card increases an away teams’ scoring rate by 60 % and decreases the home sides’ scoring rate by 17 %. Increase by 69 % in scoring is evident for the home team after a red card for the … Read more

How important are corner kicks in soccer live betting?

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Soccer Betting Resources Live soccer bettors should know that corners kicks are not worthless in live soccer betting so that they are able to place a good bet.   World Cup 2014 Corners There were 474 corner situations in the initial group stage, out of which 19 were turned into goals. This was slightly higher conversion rate of 4 %. But, this conversion rate has an extremely big effect on the qualification for the knockout stages. In the group games, 14 teams scored at least one from a corner and 11 of those went into the Round of 16. In Group A, all four sides scored at least once from a corner, so two teams were bound not to advance and the overall progression rate for corner scoring teams was even more impressive. In figures, nearly a quarter of the total goals scored by these 14 sides were from corners. In order to be able to calculate the possibilities, we should focus on how likely is a side to convert a corner into a goal, when given an average number of corners. If we use the more common 3 % conversion rates from corners and applying them to the group format of Brazil 2014, there was around a 7 % chance that a side would convert exactly two goals from corner kicks in their three group stage matches. Thus, individually, one side may score at least one goal from a corner n around 15 % of their games and in one match there will be at least one such goal scored by either side 25 % of the time. The likelihood above are not to be disregarded, especially is the goals that one side may concede from a corner are taken into account. This is a better way to calculate than to concentrate only on goals that may be scored in this way, which is mostly used in such studies. In the group stages of the World Cup Finals which consist of 32 teams and in the USA, Mexico and Colombia, we should have expected between two or three teams to have scored exactly two goals from corners. Playing against Italy, Uruguay managed to turn the situation in its favour when they scored from a corner. Therefore, from a 15 % chance of qualifying for the Round of 16, in the last 10 minutes in the group stage, they managed to increase this chance to 90 %. Brazil needed a similar goal to win over first Chile in the initial knockout game and then Colombia in the quarter final. Surprise qualifiers, Mexico and USA also owed their progression partly to finely executed goals from a corner kick. Should corners be considered worthless? As the situation in soccer is, goals are scarce and when it comes to goals scored from corners, no matter how surprising they may be, they have a great effect. But, how to define their effectiveness? This has always been considered as a matter where subjective opinion prevails. Diego Godin’s emphatic first contact header for Uruguay against Italy was the definitive example of a goal scored from a corner delivery. But less clear cut was Liverpool’s equally dramatic last minute winner at Blackburn in 2012. Agger flicked on a 40 yard punt from halfway and Carroll headed home a last minute winner, so the goal originated from a pass 50 yards from goal, but the defensive confusion in Blackburn’s defence and Liverpool’s temporary attacking set up comprising their two central defenders owed everything to the corner kick that had immediately preceded the goal. Whether the goal originated from a corner kick or not should be looked into carefully and a cut-off point may be required. However, to define that a corner is the initial point and three subsequent passes is merely a convenience for the data collector. It is not something that is firmly based in reality. A corner kick disrupts the whole order of the game. Namely, the defence has to be reordered and players who normally play attack, now have to play the defence. Furthermore, players with aerial talents have to be included and these players may be more usable on the ground in other phases of the match. Barcelona and Spain have recently used mixed strategies to one dimensional approach. Therefore, corner kicks and the threat they pose mean more than just the action that they create in the goalmouth. How much a corner is worth? There is nothing that we can use in order to compare goals from corners to other forms of scoring. Corners have a low conversion rate of 3-4 % and therefore they are dismissed very often. If they, together with their subsequent passes are considered as another passing sequence, then they take up 5 % of such on-field actions. But in any case, they account for 15 % of the goals that are scored in one season. If we use data from the EPL, 50 final third entries are necessary to score a goal which is not a goal scored from a corner. Therefore, these goals that are scored in final third entries may be suitable comparison to corners. However, even if we manage to compare goals scored from corners to other methods of scoring, we will see that the efficiency at which corner kicks are converted to goals is again extremely low. On the other hand, we should never disregard corners just because their conversion rate is very small. If we look at this from another perspective, we will also see that other on-field actions almost always fail to end in a goal. If we compare corner kicks to penalty kicks, we can conclude that the conversion rate of penalty kicks is about 80 %, compared to 4 % of corner kicks. But, the penalty kicks is an event which is very rare in football, whereas corner kicks happen very often. In order one corner to be successful, two players have to connect in a well practiced routine. … Read more

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