Best prediction
Home Win
Penarol vs Progreso
73.1%Confidence
Best odd1.39
Uruguay · Primera DivisiónLive data
Penarol
Sat, 10 Oct 2026
1:1
FT
Progreso
1X2 predictionHome Win
GoalsOver 2.5
BTTSYes
Correct score2-1
Over 2.5Total goals
55.3%Probability
YesBoth teams to score
56.4%Probability
2-1Correct score
25.5%Model confidence
10
Matches analysed
10
70%
Win rate
40%
2
Avg goals scored
1
0.7
Avg goals conceded
1.4
70%
Over 1.5
60%
60%
Over 2.5
50%
60%
BTTS
50%
30%
Clean sheets
20%
1X2 probability breakdownCore match-result model
Home win73.1%
Draw2.8%
Away win24.1%
Top correct score candidatesRelative share among model candidates
2-125.5%
2-025.5%
1-021.9%
1-114.4%
0-112.7%
Prediction insightsHow the current model reads this match
Primary signal
Home Win leads the model with 73.1% confidence.
Goals outlook
Over 2.5 is selected at 55.3% model probability.
BTTS outlook
Both teams to score: Yes at 56.4%.
Data sample
10 recent Penarol matches and 10 recent Progreso matches were compared.