Applying Elo ratings to soccer betting

What every bettor should consider when planning to place a bet in soccer are the Elo ratings and how to make great use of this method in order to increase profits. Blow you may read more regarding this method.   Elo ratings is a method developed by Hungarian-born American Arpad Elo. As a master level chess player, he invented this method as a chess rating system to serve as a comparing tool of the skill levers of players in which two teams compete against each other. However, after a while, this method found its use in many other sports to assess the performance of teams. How it works? The essence of the Elo ratings lies in the fact that the winner takes points from the loser. The number of points at steak depends on the rating difference between the opposing teams. When a team which has high ratings wins again a low-rated team, the losing team loses only a few rating points. On the contrary, when a low-rated teams wins against a high-rated one, larger number of rating points will be transferred. When it is draw, points are shared equally. Mathematics Let’s take, for example, Real Madrid vs. Manchester City. In a match for the second leg of Champion league’s semi-final. They both are high on the list and according to ClubElo rankings, Real Madrid is with 2074 points and Manchester City with 1861 points. If we calculate 5 % of their respective ranking, Real Madrid will risk 104 points and Manchester City 93 and the tota pot will contain 197 points. Taking into account the three possible outcomes of the match, it will look as follows: If Real Madrid wins (1.518*). Their ratings increases by 93 to 2167 and City rating decreases to 1768. If Manchester City wins (6.86*). Their rating increases by 104 to 1965 and Real Madrid’s rating decreases to 1790. In case of a draw (4.64*). The pot (197) shall be divided equally between the two teams 98.5:98.5 in a slight increase to 1866.5 for City and a slight decrease to 2068.5 for Real Madrid. Other factors The above example shows that a draw of 1-1 between the two teams is a better result for City than it is for Real, taking into account that the first match ended in a goalless draw. Thus Real Madrid cannot walk away slightly penalized for not being able to progress to the Champions League final when playing at home. This is one of the flaws of this Elo method. Namely, what we saw above is a basic mathematics. The reality is slightly different because this method does not take into account other factors which affect the game to greater extent. Everyone knows that many other factors are important for the game, and among these is the home advantage factor. Thus, these calculations with the Elo method are usually adjusted to take into account other major circumstances, such as home advantage, goal difference, two-leg matches etc. the Elo ratings of the top 10 teams according to EloClub are as follows: Team Elo value  Real Madrid 2081 FC  Barcelona 2020  Bayern 1997  Atlético 1950 Juventus 1941  Chelsea 1906  Tottenham 1885  Paris SG 1874  Monaco 1872  Man City 1864 *Last accessed on 24.07.2017 How to use Elo ratings when placing a bet in soccer? As Elo ratings method does not take into account individual players’ conditions, it is very hard to say for sure that its predictive power is on a high level, especially when new circumstances, such as injuries, new managers/players, tactics etc. occur. Thus, bettor should always be aware of these factors when using this method as a reference, as it is always based on past performances. However, it provides good statistical data for calculation of probabilities of the outcomes with great accuracy. Therefore, when searching for value bets, or bets with positive expected value, it can be used as a reliable tool. Thus, it can be especially useful in competitions such as the Champion League round of 16 because the weaker teams have already been eliminated and the final stages are always harder to predict as the competition is nearing towards completion.

Margins on soccer betting odds and how to calculate them

Long-term profits are very closely related to the margin applied on the soccer betting odds. The lower the margins are, the more they are in favour of the bettor and the larger they are, it gives bigger profit. Below is an explanation on how to calculate margins on 1X2 odds. The soccer betting odds’ margin is actually the price that a bookmaker is charging and the Margin Calculator below gives an idea of how this works and makes it easier for bettors to calculate the margin on a bet. Normally, we will take a match with three possibilities of ending as we need an example of 1X2. For that purpose, we will take the match between Hull City and Leicester City. This match was played at the KCOM Stadium. The opening price for Hull City was 3.41 and for Leicester City it was 2.39. The draw was set to 3.19 Outcome                                             Odds Hull City to win                                  3.41 Leicester City to win                          2.39 Draw                                                   3.19   There are two steps to calculate the margins for 1X2 odds: The odds for all three possible outcomes shall be converted into decimal probability; Solve the equation: Margin = (1/Home Odds) + (1/Away Odds) + (1/Draw Odds) – 1 First, we shall convert each 1X2 market into a decimal chance of winning. This is what actually is inside each set of the brackets in the equation above: (1/Odds). For Hull City, which is the home team, the decimal probability is (1/3.41) = 0.293 (this is actually a 29.3 % chance of winning). On the other hand, the draw shall be (1/3.19) which equals 0.313 and Leicester is (1/2.39) which equals 0.418. And second, we will substitute the numbers above as is shown in the formula in order to calculate the margin. Margin = (0.293) + (0.418) + (0.313) – 1. Thus, the margin is 0.024 or 2.4 %. Various types of bookmaker’s margins The odds above are just an example of how one bookmaker offers odds. There are other bookmakers who will offer slightly different odds, and normally the profit may differ drastically. For example, what another bookmaker could offer for the same match is 3.10 for Hull City, 2.10 for Leicester and 2.90 for draw. The margin in this example turns out to be 10 % which is huge and more than five times more expensive than in the previous example. Thus, if a bettor placed $100 bet on Hull City to win on the 1X2 market, he would have won $31 more if playing with the bookmaker whose margin was 2.4 %. The crucial thing in soccer betting is learning how to make more sophisticated decisions. Thus bettors should first educate themselves and then place bets. This includes checking other margins before making the final choice and placing the final bet. They should always look for bookmakers with risk management model which are in a position to offer better value than the rest.