facts in soccer betting

The new betting scheme in soccer: betting on cards

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Lately bettors have found a new way to place money in soccer betting and this new way is betting on cards. It is a drift from the classical 1X2, Handicap or Total betting. Below, you may find out how to bet on cards and which data can you use to place better and reliable bets. It is always useful and handy to find a relatively unknown sport, develop a good knowledge and reap the benefits from betting in it. Or, just discover a specialist market in more popular sports. When finding a specialist market is in question, then corners betting in soccer can be taken into account. What successful bettors do is getting information less known to other bettors and make use of them for their own benefit. This is especially true when talking about the bookmakers odd. When a bettor knows something a bookmaker doesn’t, then the bettor is able to take advantage of that knowledge. However, even without that extra info, one can find something valuable to bet in, like cards betting. What is the benefit of cards betting? When we talk about learning the information that bookmakers don’t know about, it is worth noting that we don’t imply that bookmakers are uninformed about certain stuff happening in the betting world. However, all the energy and resources are put in the more popular markets mentioned above, like 1X2, Handicap or Total, so that bookmakers don’t have enough time to spend on the cards betting market. And this is the opportunity to be taken as an advantage by bettors who want to explore new betting markets. Also, the more reliable method for betting on cards is the analytical approach, compared to the other markets, due to the fact that soccer sees less scoring. How to bet on cards? There are various markets for betting on cards in soccer. Just as in the other  markets, here the Handicap and Total cards markets are offered for the Champions League, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Serie A and all of them use a points system. A booking (yellow card) is worth 1 point and a red card is worth 2 points because two yellow cards result in a red, this is worth 3 points (one for the yellow card and 2 for the red after a second yellow was shown). In Totals cards betting, he bookmaker sets a figure for the combined cards points and then the bettor is able to choose to place the bet on the actual figure which is over or under the bookmaker’s figure. If Tottenham Hotspur was playing against Crystal Palace, the total might be 4.5. Here we have two bookings for Tottenham (2 points) and three bookings for Crystal Palace (3 points) and this will be an over bet on the Totals would win – anything less and the bet would be a loss. The Handicap card betting is the same as in the other handicap markets. Here one side is offered a + and the other side a – to counter a perceived bias. An example for this would be Tottenham Hotspur -1 and Crystal Palace +1. According to this, Tottenham would have to accumulate 2 more cards points than Crystal palace for the Handicap bet to be successful. Therefore, if Palace accumulated the same cards points or even more, the bet put on them would win. If Tottenham scored one more point than palace, the result would be a push). Analysis of cards betting Bettors must consider various of factors before placing a bet on cards. Taking into account the data from the Premier league from the season 2013/14 until now, we can see that some of the most useful statistics are the tackles per game (TPG), fouls per game (FPG) and the average number of cards per game (CPG). Below we can see these statistics for each team in the Premier League 2013/14. Keep in mind that these table do not show the accumulation of these fouls and cards (for example, if a team is an underdog, if they are the favourite, if they are losing or winning). Teams Average TPG Average FPG Average CPG Arsenal  18.8 9.6 1.5 Bouremouth  16.9 9.8 1.4 Burnley 15.9 10.9 1.8 Chelsea 19.3 10.6 1.8 Crystal Palace 19.7 12.5 1.8 Everton  18.9 10.1 1.6 Hull City 18.7 11.1 1.7 Leicester City 19.9 11.6 1.5 Liverpool 21.4 10.7 1.6 Manchester City 18.9 12.1 1.9 Manchester United 18.9 12.1 1.9 Middlesbrough 20.4 12.2 2.0 Southampton  20.2 11.7 1.6 From the data we can see that Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur have an above average number of FPG and receive an above average number of CPG. It is worth noting that these teams are possession-centric. On the other hand, teams like WBA and West Ham make fewer TPG, make less FPG and get less CPG. These teams are more defensive. There are however some teams which make their opponents commit more FPG and therefore receive more CPG. The table below gives evidence of this, using the same sample of data as above: Teams OFPG Average OCPG Arsenal  11.3 2.0 Bouremouth 12.2 1.9 Burnley 11.1 1.8 Chelsea 12.5 2.4 Crystal Palace 11.6 1.7 Everton 11.8 1.7 Hull City 11.1 1.6 Leicester City 9.4 1.6 Liverpool 11.3 1.9 Manchester City 10.1 1.8 Manchester United  11.1 1.8 Middlesbrough 10.8 1.7 Southampton  10.7 1.4   In these cases, underdogs usually have to chase the ball and make more TPG and FPG and the side that is losing will be forced to do the same the later it gets into a game. Most of the cards are usually given for fouls and bettors should always keep this in mind. Other times when fouls are given is for simulation, taking of jersey during celebration and getting onto the pitch without permission. And all of these situations account for less than 1 percent of cards. The role of the referee Although all the referees follow the same rules for giving cards, some referees give more … Read more

Expected goals in soccer – how many to expect actually?

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There are numerous question that bother bettors when they are about to place a bet. Some of the many and perhaps, the most important ones, are how to determine the number of goals that are expected per match and how often one shot become a goal. Maybe one of the most important questions for bettors is to find out how they can use past data to predict the expected goals per a match. Thus, what bettors need in order to tackle these issues and to place a valuable bet is information and a model. Continue reading to find out how to use a model for expected goals to predict the score in a soccer match. It is a well known fact that goals in soccer are pretty rare occurrences. The average number of goals per game over the last five seasons in the Premier League is only 2.73 goals. The book The Numbers Game holds the belief that up to 50 % of any match result can be down to luck, the bounce of the ball or the decision of the referee. Therefore, in order to make more precise predictions, one should always take into account a bigger sample of data. Therefore, it is better to use the 8.49 shots on target, or maybe the 25.7 total shots, instead of the average 2.73 goals per game in the 2015/16 Premier League season. The likelihood a shot to become a goal depends on various factors and varies to a great degree. Therefore, we use the expected goals (xG) models to calculate the probability. For example, in England’s top division, in 9.7 % of the shots, a goal is scored. This number is valid for the last five seasons. However, if we break down those shots into different categories, only then will we see the variation of the conversion rate. When historical data kick in, we are able to calculate how likely it is for a single shot to be converted into a goal. We do this by calculating as many or as few factors in. whatever we like. For example, some of the most thorough models make difference whether the goal was scored with foot or head, what the situation was when the goal was scored, etc. This involves indeed very complex data gathering and analysis skills. However, much simpler expected goals system exists which allow the bettors to gather valuable insights into the matter.  What is the value of different types of shots? According to Opta, there are high-quality opportunities which are called ‘high chances’. These are situations where a shot is expected to be converted into a goal (usually when there is one-on-one occasion or from very close range). The expected goal value to penalties is set to be 0.783. This number is derived from the data where out of the 443 penalty shots in the Premier League between 2011/12 and 2015/16, 347 were goals. In a period of past five seasons in the English top flight, there were a total of 6.213 big chances, in which 2.579 were scored. Penalties were also included in these numbers. Therefore, if we deduct the penalties, non-penalty big chances have been converted at a reate of 38.7 %, or expressed as an xG value – 0.387. The last five years saw 22.822 non-big chances in the box with 1.587 scored, which gives an xG of 0.070. Between August 2011 and May 2016 in the Premier League, there were 22.318 shots from outside the box. 809 of them were scored, giving an average of 3.6 % chance of shots to be converted into a goal. Thus, the xG for shots from outside the box is set to 0.036. Free-kick shots are converted at a rate of about 5-6 %, and this provides for a slight variation within this, but for simple systems, 3.6 % is enough. How to determinate expected goals per team If we look at the matches of this season, until 12th March 2017, out of 211 matches from the Premier League which were won (excluding own goals), the team that hat the most shots won in 151 of them (71.6 %) and the team with the highest xG score, won in 170 matches (80.6 % of the time). If we use the Poisson method and the xG data from the 2016/17 season, we can make the predictions as follows in the table below. This figures are for the matches in Premier League week 29.   According to the table, one correct score did turn out to be correct, as well as four other result choices (home win, draw or away win). If we use the odds given by the system’s calculations, it is clear that the favourite won the bet in six out of ten matches. What are the imperfections of the xG predictive model? The factors that influence the final outcome of a soccer match, like injuries, change of manager or fatigue of the team, are the same factors that play a great deal in whichever system a bettor uses for calculating the odds. Therefore, bettors should always be aware of the limitations of any model. These systems are all based on averages and as about half of the matches see less than 2.5 goals, it may be expected that a system of this kind will not be able to predict an especially high scoring game. However as already noted that all shots on average are worth 0.097 goals, a simple system of this kind indicate that the shots made by Manchester City are worth 0.113 and those by Hull are only worth 0.083. Everything taken into account, bettors should always use statistical data for expected goals in connection with the Poisson distribution. In that way, one will be able to accurately quantify the team’s defence and attack.

Is the weather an important factor in a soccer match?

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In soccer betting, every bettor should be aware of numerous factors which may influence the end result. Needless to say, a change to the conditions on the football pitch may of course change the outcome of the game. But, how weather conditions influence the end result in a soccer match and how this affects your bet? Every bettor will agree that before placing the bet, one should always see how their favourite team stands in comparison to their opponents. This has always been a starting point in betting. However, there are also other factors which are important for the final result. Analysis of certain factors, like a new stadium, a congested fixture period and the weather conditions is as important before placing a bet, as are the use of methods for calculating the odds, like the Brier Score method or the Poisson distribution. How does weather influence betting in soccer? The influence the weather can have on a soccer match is hard to express in numbers. However, it can greatly influence the result. Certain weather condition can be beneficial to some teams and taken all together, they can influence the number of goals scored in one match. For example, Jose Mourinho knew how light rain would benefit Barcelona when he was the manager of Real Madrid. Having this in mind, he chose not to water the pitch at Santiago Bernabeu when Barcelona played against Real Madrid. Why? Light rain goes in favour of more passing teams because when the rain sits on the surface, the ball travels faster. On the other hand, too much rain makes it very hard for passing teams to estimate the time of a pass as a pitch may get saturated with water or may become ‘waterlogged’. This makes more difficult for the ball to pass through. Although this rarely happens in top divisions, since modern technology of drainage makes it harder for a pitch to get waterlogged, it is still a regular occurrence in the lower leagues. Something similar happens with heavy winds, especially, again, with passing teams. Teams that play especially long balls have problems with strong winds because when the ball is in the air for a longer time, the wind may alter its trajectory. Does hot weather produce more goals? It is a widespread belief that the hotter the weather, the bigger number of goals per match. This is mostly connected with the believe that hot weather makes the defenders more fatigue. However, the same should be true for the attackers as well. Below is the analysis of the Premier League data from three seasons in which we can see what numbers say for the matches played in hot months three months with the highest average temperature) vs. in cold and wet months (three months with the lowest average temperature and most rain). Average goals per game 2013/14 – 2015/16 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Average Hot months 2.43 2.75 2.89 2.69 Cold and wet months 2.86 2.41 2.58 2.62 Both teams to score 2013/14 – 2015-16 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Average Hot months 43.37% 48.00% 59.17% 50.18% Cold and wet months 47.52% 48.55% 50.82% 48.96% The numbers do not confirm the belief that more goals are scored during the hot month, compared to the cold and wet months. However, we should keep in mind that the hot months are always at the beginning and in the end of the season and towards the end of the season, most of the teams do not have anything to play for. Do weather conditions change the odds? It has been accepted that when a team travels long distances to play in a climate they are not accustomed to, this can have some effect on the team’s performance. Examples of this can be seen within the Champions League and Europe League. The examples of Manchester United playing against Zorya Luhansk and FC Rostov show how a change in weather or playing conditions influence the odds for a travelling team. In this cases, bookmakers have already taken into account Manchester United’s trips to Ukraine and Russia, where they had to play in freezing cold conditions. However, not more than 24 hours before the start of the game, information came about the frozen pitch in the match against Zorya and deteriorated surface in the match against Rostov. The table below shows a breakdown of the odds movement for Manchester United’s games against Zorya Luhanska and FC Rostov: Opening odds (implied probability) Odds 24 hours before KO (implied probability) Closing odds (implied probability) Zorya Luhansk 10.92 (9.2%) 11.18 (8.9%) 9.83 (10.2%) Draw 5.31 (18.8%) 4.95 (20.2%) 4.89 (20.4 %) Manchester United 1.33 (75.2%) 1.38 (72.5%) 1.35 (74.1%)   Opening odds (implied probability) Odds 24 hours before KO (implied probability) Closing odds (implied probability) FC Rostov 5.33 (18.8%) 4.58 (21.8%) 5.26 (19%) Draw 3.65 (27.4%) 3.42 (29.2%) 3.52 (28.4 %) Manchester United 1.78 (56.2%) 1.94 (51.1%) 1.81 (55.2%) The numbers in this case show indeed some minor movements in the odds. However, there are no major indicators that show that bookmakers would change the odds drastically. Playing in international tournaments and acclimatisation International tournaments force teams to adapt to new climates in a short period of time. Such an example is the World Cup, especially the one which will be held in Qatar in 2022. In this case, we are talking about major differences in temperatures. Although the World Cup will be held in winter, temperatures are still expected to rise to 30 degrees C. For the teams which come from alike climate, such as those from Africa, Asia and South America, this will be some sort of advantage over the teams which usually play and are accustomed to cooler temperatures. Therefore, this World Cup will influence the winner odds, as well as individual games. Taken everything into account, we can conclude that weather conditions surely influence soccer betting, no matter how slightly significant this influence may be. Of course, there are more important factors to be considered when placing a … Read more

Myths and facts in soccer betting

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Myths and facts in soccer betting In soccer betting, not every received knowledge can be taken for granted. In fact, much of the knowledge a bettor receives may be considered as unreliable and should be treated with caution. However, some common beliefs that are held among soccer bettors are so much considered to be true, that everyone accepts them as such. Below are several common myths that have been debunked. Setting the odds in soccer betting is crucial for great profit. Bookmakers set the odds according to two criteria: what they consider as a likely outcome and how much money the bettors are putting on the markets. So, the question that may arise is: when do profit opportunities arise? The answer to this question is: when bettors ignore statistics and place bets only on the basis on commonly held misconceptions. Tired after playing? Some of the most common sayings is that if a club had a match in the Champions League before, they would be certainly tired. However, placing a bet against them is not a reliable option. The reason why lies in the fact that even if the match was played away and not at home, any European city is a maximum of three hours away and the time spend traveling does not mean greater physical exhaustion for the players. If we add the most advanced training facilities and the personnel which provide the best fitness and wellbeing services to the players, there is no reason for us to believe that players will not be fit for the next game. Rate of winning after UCL games  Myths and facts in soccer betting Below is data how three top Premier League teams performed after European games in the period of the past six years. The study was conducted by BBC. Arsenal has improved their performance in the League after a European fixture in three seasons and deteriorated in the rest three. But, the difference was small. On the other hand, Chelsea has been constantly underperforming after European Matches in the final two seasons, while Mourinho was the manager. After 2011/2012, Manchester City has not made any significant progress in the Champions League. The necessity to win # Myths and facts in soccer betting The belief that a team needs to win a match, if they want to be part of the next year’s UEFA tournament, is again one of the myths that more often than not proves to be unreliable and a dangerous territory. Kevin Pullein, the author of the book The Definitive Guide to betting on Sport (2004), treats this matter on whether a team improves its performance just because it ‘needs to win’. There are two presumptions regarding this matter. The first one is that a team which must win, will give its best efforts to do so. But, on the contrary, this means that it was not giving it’s best earlier, which of course may not be always the case. The second presumption is the belief that because of the pressure to win, players will perform better, which is hardly the case because pressure on players usually worsens the performance. Pullein came to the findings that after 10 seasons of the English Championship and League One, those teams which are trying to promote performed worse in May, than in any other month of the year. How to bet in the end of the season? Bookmakers make profit when bettors ignore statistics. They are aware of the common myths bettors believe in and use this opportunity to price up teams who desperately need to win in order to mislead bettors to put great deal of money on a certain bet. Thus, bettors should always keep in mind that out of all the teams which were studied in the BBC analysis, 60 % did the same or even better after European games. Therefore, knowing this, they should always avoid clichés which very rarely have any statistical basis and place their bets on post-European matches differently.  

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