Kelly Criterion betting

Since bettors are always driven by their motions and bias while betting, the advice is to always look for a mathematical edge when placing a bet. The Kelly Criterion is of great importance in order to determine how much money to place in a bet and bettors should make efforts to learn how to use it.     The two most important aspects that matter in soccer betting is how and how much to bet. Since ‘how much to bet’ implies financial decisions, finding the financial products to invest in and how much to subdivide one’s portfolio are the most important issues. Therefore, this is where the Kelly Criterion steps in; or at least a derivative of it. This criterion helps bettors decide how much money to put in a bet when the odds are in favour. In this way, the funds placed in a bet grow vastly. The Kelly Criterion formula is: (BP – Q) / B where: B stands for the decimal odds -1 P stands for the probability of success Q stands for the probability of failure (i.e. 1-p) Explaining the Kelly Criterion using in a coin example The chances that a coin lands on heads are 52 %. Let’s imagine we are betting on whether a coin will land on the heads when tossed. For this, we place a bet at 2.00.Uusing the Kelly Criterion, the calculations are as follows: P= 0.52 Q = 1-0.52 = 0.48 B = 2-1 = 1. The equation: (0.52×1 – 0.48) / 1 = 0.04 Consequently, the Kelly Criterion gives a probability of 4 % that the coin will land on heads. A positive percentage means that the returns may be extraordinary. On the other hand, there are two other popular calculation methods, Fibonacci and Arbitrage; however, they are with higher risk. Why they do not provide explosive returns is that they need precise calculation of the outcome of a match.