Bet And Win

The secret behind Handicap soccer betting

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The article below deals with soccer handicap betting and how it works. It also provides a hint on how to become a pro in handicap betting. The main principle of sport is the competition between two opposing teams which have different qualities and strength when competing against one another. This principle is valid for soccer as well. The bigger this difference is in size, the greater the chances of winning of the favourite team are. This difference depends of various factors, but most significant is the historical dominance of the team, alongside with the financial support one team is provided. Moreover, the home-field advantage plays also a valuable role in the success rate of the team, as well as the availability of the team players and the injuries, past and present among them. All of the factors provided above form the indicators of the chances of success for each side in the match, and this is presented in the form of odds.   The principle of Handicap betting As previously mentioned, the teams in soccer already have difference in perceived abilities and strength. The more significant this difference is, the smaller the betting odds on the favourite team. This makes betting on that team less or not attractive at all since the returns the bettors can get are minimal and thus they have no or little incentives for doing so. What bettors usually do, when betting in soccer, is backing their strong favourite by using the old technique of 1X2 bet. However, there is a fresh new way in the betting world which provides more value to the money-the Handicap betting. Handicap betting is all about levelling the playing-field. This is done so as to balance the playing-field and in this fashion, each side is given a positive and a negative goal handicap accordingly. Thus, one of the two sides gets a greater number of goals for betting purposes, i.e. a ‘head start’. The odds are then calculated on the basis of that ‘head start’. Therefore, a Handicap is a numerical figure which is provided by the bookmaker in order to challenge the difference in abilities of the opponents, and thus creating more appealing odds. Asian handicap Handicap betting, which is also known as ‘Asian handicap’ betting, can be divided into three types: Level Handicap, Single Handicap and Split Handicap. When there is no difference in strength and abilities between the two teams, then no Handicap shall be assigned to either of the teams and they start with 0 goals. It is up to the bettor to identify the winning team and to place the bet on it. This is especially handy as it eliminates the draw and should the match end in a tie, then bets are refunded. With a zero result, neither of the teams is in any advantage. On the other hand, when there is a perceived difference between the teams’ abilities, Single Handicap is applied and this is done in the following manner: the presumed superior team is given goal handicap for the purposes of levelling the playing-field for betting purposes. For example, it is given -0.5 goal, -1 goal, -1.5 goals etc. Accordingly, when one bets on Team X with a handicap of -1 goal, this team must score and win the game by more than 1 goal. In this way, it will cover their handicap and the bettor will win the bet. If, on the other hand, it wins only by 1 goal, because of the applied handicap, the result will be a draw for betting purposes and the bet is refunded. Finally, the bettor loses the bet placed on Team X if Team Y draws or wins the match. Split Handicap The third possibility in Handicap betting is the Split Handicap. This applies when the difference in abilities is small. In this option, the bettor splits the stake over two handicaps. For example, if Team X is given 0 and -0.5 goals and the bettor places the bet on Team X, three scenarios are possible. If Team X loses the match, both bets are lost because they did not cover either handicap. In case of a draw, half of the stake which is at (0) will be refunded and the other half at (-0.5) will be lost. Finally, if Team X wins, the both bets win since both of the handicaps will be covered. CONCLUSION If you are following the old-fashioned 1X2 fixed odds betting, you are probably not very successful in getting worthy returns on your investments in soccer betting. The insight into the fresh form of Handicap betting provided in this article will surely provide you with increased chances of returning your investments. The odds in Handicap betting are more reliable and more beneficial because the whole concept provides more winning possibilities. The whole pattern of betting may seem more difficult; however, once you have it all figured out, it is quite simple.

How to determine who will win the Premier League?

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The article below gives information about how to make use of goal differences in order to predict who will be the winner of the Premier League. This method, which is a balanced betting strategy, predicts the team points. As an example, the 2014/15 Premier League is taken. By rule, bettors should always tend to make as good predictions as possible, while at the same time be cautious about the events which may occur during the season which consists of 38 games. Therefore, predictive soccer methods should always be used carefully. An example of this is Liverpool in 2013/14. The ability of a team to score or concede goals, represented by a side’s goal difference, is the basis for calculating the League points. In some cases, league points out-perform the usual relationship between itself and the goal difference. An example of this is Newcastle in the season of 2011/12, when the goal difference of +5 of Newcastle related to 56 points over the season, and not the 65 they accrued. Therefore, when such cases occur, it is always better to look at the goal difference, instead of previous points, if we want to better predict the future league points. The goal difference as an indicator of the 2014/15 Premier League team points We can predict the goal difference in the easiest way if we take the numbers from the previous season and use the relationship between points and the goal difference from the past. In this way we are able to determine what the point total will be for 2014/15. By using this model, we would have come to the conclusion that Newcastle did not have big chances of scoring their 65 points again in the 2012/13 season. What they did manage to get is 41 points. Furthermore, if we want to increase our chances for profit, we should take a weighted average of the goal difference from more than one previous season. The disadvantage of this method is that it does not include promoted or recently promoted teams. However, the good thing is that it decreases the chances of their predictions to be distorted by an attacking or defensive unit which has an extremely good or bad period of play. if we run a regression in the Premier League data since its beginning, we can adequately predict the goal difference in the next season in the following way: the goal difference of the previous season is multiplied by 0.658, the season before that is multiplied by 0.208 and the one from three seasons ago by 0.098. The figures that we get are added together and in the end we subtract 1. In a similar fashion, if we want to determine the general relationship between goal difference over one season and points gained in that season, which are obtained also by regressing of past outcomes from Premier League seasons, we can use the following equation: League Points = (0.6455 * GD) + 52 The example of this is Liverpool’s goal difference in 2013/14 was +51, in 2012/13 it was +28 and in 2011/12 it was +7. Thus, its predicted GD in 2014/15 = (0.658*51) + (0.208*28) + (0.098*7) – 1 = +39. To project the points that Liverpool might expect to gain in 2014/15, we have to put out predicted goal difference for Liverpool into the second equation and this is shown below: (0.6455*39) + 52 = 77 points   Team Expected Points 2014/15 Expected GD 2014/15 Actual GD 2013/14 Actual GD 2012/13 Actual GD 2011/12 Man City 87 +55 +65 +32 +64 Liverpool 77 +39 +51 +28 +7 Chelsea 76 +37 +44 +36 +19 Man Utd 70 +27 +21 +43 +56 Arsenal 69 +26 +27 +35 +25 Everton 63 +17 +22 +15 +10 Tottenham 57 +8 +4 +20 +25 Swansea 50 -3 0 -4 -7 Stoke 46 -10 -7 -11 -17 WBA 44 -13 -16 -4 -7 Newcastle 42 -16 -16 -23 +5 Sunderland 41 -16 -19 -13 -1 Aston Villa 38 -22 -22 -22 -16 The teams in the table above spent at least the three pervious seasons in the Premier League. If we go back three seasons, reducing the effect of one lucky or unlucky season and using goal difference to determine likely points, we eliminate a season in which one team gains points from goals which are scored in incidental manner. But, it was already previously mentioned that every prediction is just an estimate and therefore it should always be treated with care. Furthermore, this method does not take into account other factors which are extremely important and influence the outcome of the game, such as: changes in the managerial structures, transfers or fixture congestion. Therefore, bettors should always see their models as potential outcomes and never strictly rely on them.

Bwin Overview 

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Bwin Overview Bwin has an impressive amount of registered users at 13 million customers, and they are spread out over 25 different markets. They possess several gaming licenses issued by several countries such as Germany, Italy, and Gibraltar. They offer many different types of games and betting including sports, poker, casino games, skill games, and live streams of sporting events. They are a relatively new name due to a series of mergers starting back with PartyGaming in 1997. Even so, the lack of familiarity with the name may be off-putting for more seasoned bettors. Bwin and Party continue to operate as separate brands. Neither .com site currently accepts American residents. However, Party Poker through a partnership with the Borgata casino is licensed by the New Jersey Division of Gaming to offer online poker and casino games to New Jersey citizens. Betting Bonuses First deposits on Bwin can net new customers up to £30. To gain any bonus for a first deposit. However, you must be sure to put down at least £10. This first time bonus can be rolled over three times. If you have used Bwin before, this bonus will not be available to you so keep that in mind when looking at gifts. If you have previously had an account in the online casino or poker room, you are not eligible. This bonus in and of itself may be attractive but what sets this bonus above the rest is that it is truly free to play. It is not just a risk-free bet such as a rebate would be. You will not receive the bonus in a lump sum but will instead get two separate deposits after placing real money bets. Other than those bonuses, Bwin also has a player points program. When you play, you can earn two different types of points: Market and Status points. Status points determine your ranking and perks within Bwin whereas the Market points can be redeemed for cash or other products. It is unclear if these points can be earned off of sports betting or if they are only available for casino bets which could be a huge detractor for those that prefer sports betting. This seems to be a more common theme with some of the newer names in online betting which can be a significant advantage for the companies that offer rewards on sports betting. Advantages Bwin has an excellent gaming platform. Bwin impresses when it comes to their user interface. The software used to bet is exceptional, and they have a large variety of sports and markets available. Navigation is relatively straightforward even though there appears to be a lot happening on the screen. The upper left-hand corner of the display also shows the most popular bets for the day and the page won’t reload if you click on a sport and place a bet. Customers can even make favourites so they can quickly navigate through their top betting areas. There is a reported issue with customer service, however. There are no forms in which 24-hour customer service is available which seems odd in this day and age. However, the website is available in over 20 languages which make it perfect for the global betting market.

Unibet Overview 

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Unibet Overview Unibet is the biggest online gambling sites in the world. Having been around since 1997, they have racked up over twenty years in the gambling business which is a pretty long time for most online gaming sites. Few people know that they are predominantly one of the biggest betting locations in the world. They operate in over 100 countries and have over 14 million registered users. Their site is translated into over 20 different languages. Unibet has their main offices in Malta. Their parent company is Nordic OMX, which is a Swedish and Finnish financial services company. The company operates several exchanges in the Nordic and Baltic states. Unibet Group plc is publicly traded on the Nasdaq Stockholm. Unibet hold licenses from the Malta Gaming Authority, the Remote Gambling Commission of the Government of Gibraltar, and the Alderney Gaming Commission. Unibet’s gaming operations span the globe, but they are not available in some countries including residents of the United States, Portugal, and Canada. Betting Bonuses Unibet doesn’t appear to have a great loyalty program for their sportsbook bettors. They have one for their casino players but are severely lacking for their sports bettors. However, their odds are excellent. This is particularly the case when it comes to sports betting, where their advantage is subtle than the vast majority of others bookies. Where Unibet excels is in live streaming and betting. Almost every sport has some in-play betting availability, and about 30% allow for live betting. As such, Unibet should be a top pick for live betting connoisseurs. The lack of deposit bonuses may be a deterrent, but they do have good odds and other bonuses. These odds make up for the very few downsides found with Unibet. They might not be the first name to pop up for online betting, but maybe they should be. Advantages The largest benefit for Unibet comes from its live betting and odds. They are practically unrivalled in this aspect of their sports book betting. However, there have been quite a few complaints on their customer service side. It seems that they also offer 24/7 customer support through live chat. However, users often have to wait around half hour for a response. Communication lines are not available at all hours and have excessive wait times. Even email responses, which should be the fastest, seem to take more than a day which is subpar in this technology driven world. Aside from issues with support, there isn’t a whole lot of other negatives. Their maximum payout per day is small at £100,000 per day in the main markets, but that’s perfectly acceptable to the vast majority of punters. Their welcome bonus is a bit small at £25, but they more than makeup for this with their top-tier odds. All in all, Unibet is good for those that have a good understanding of odds and prefer live betting but for those who like player perks and high customer support may find Unibet lacking.  

William-Hill

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Overview William Hill is a staple in the betting world as they have been around for ages. They started out in 1934 taking bets through the mail and phone. Decades later they opened in person betting establishments, and then 2000 brought the betting establishment online. They make many different kinds of bets including sports, horses, politics, and casino games. They still take bets over the phone and have an online gaming platform for all of their types of betting. They also have a mobile app for betting on the go. Betting Bonuses There are many sports betting bonuses available from William Hill. They have an ongoing cash back program so that you get a return on any money you bet. They also give out free bets for new players who can be used on bets with odds over 1/2. They also have a system where you can receive a refund as a free bet if you lose. This is available on accumulator selections. If one of your selections (of 5 or more at 1/5 or higher) loses, you get the free bet as long as it is not a live bet. If accumulators are your thing, they also give you  £5 worth of free bets when you spend £20 or more. They also allow you to cash out your bet under certain circumstances so if the game is going south; this might be a boon. Additionally, William Hill releases what are called Enhanced Odds on different markets each day. These will be marked with a unique logo and have a special price so when you see it you know, you’re getting a deal. If that weren’t enough, William Hill also offers an active, frequent players program. When you play games using real currency, you’ll earn two types of points: WHPoints (WHPs) and Club Points (CPs). WHPs are earned during real money games and tourneys. Every €1.00 you pay makes you 10 points. WHPs are used to determine club status. They can also be used when cashing out bonus money. WHPs can also earn you up to €5 cash every week. For every 50 points, you get €.50. CPs accumulate based on club status when you play real money games. If you have a high status, you get a larger multiplier which gives you more points. These are used to get into points tournaments. There is also a shop where points can be turned into cash. The smallest amount of money you can earn is €10 by turning in 1,000 CPs. The largest amount is €2,500 and is secured by turning in 187,500 CPs. Tournament tickets with values between €2 and €50 can be redeemed for 200 and 4,000 CPs, respectively. Advantages William Hill boasts many benefits. They take a man in many different kinds of payments and even accept bets in many various types of currencies including yen, dollars of various kinds, Euros. They also boast an extensive customer service department with online chat, phone, and email contacts available so you can get a hold of them in whatever form you prefer. Live chat appears to be the fastest way to get a question answered. The varied and many bonuses are an advantage for those that like to get perks back on their betting. It’s a great venue for any gambler who enjoy being repaid for their patronage.  

Betfair

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Overview Betfair is one of the world’s largest online betting sites. It is headquartered in the UK but works under a Gibraltar license. It has over 4 million customers and excels in the area of exchange betting. Instead of betting your money on a result against the bookkeeper, instead, you bet against other bettors. They do offer traditional sports book betting, but it seems that the majority of their business comes from the use of their exchange betting. Exchange betting offers choices to ‘back’ a team as you would in regular terms, or ‘lay’ if you think a selection won’t win. If you’re a little unfamiliar the intricacies of exchange betting, there are guides available on Betfair’s website which are perfect for novice bettors. While it is not surprising that a company specialising in exchange betting would offer a guide, it is still nice that they have it out there for their users. Betting Bonuses Betfair offers an incredibly enticing sign up feature for their sports betting. There are very few requirements, one of which is that the minimum odds must be 1/5. Meet that requirement, and you will be given £30 worth of free bets when you bet your first £10 upon sign-up and when you use the code ZSK200. These bets come in three batches of £10, though you can only use them on singles. It also features an affiliates program. Should you manage to entice friends into signing up for the same offer, you can earn an additional £/€25 free bet with the ‘Refer and Earn’ reward scheme. Betfair also seems to have a lot of random sign up offers come up on a pretty regular basis. They are worth following on Twitter to hear about promotions and specials deals. They do not seem to have a loyalty program, but the generous sign-up bonus along with the affiliate program may be enough for certain users. Advantages Betfair excels in the sports betting department. They offer the often untapped market of exchange betting as well as traditional sports book betting which is perfect for folks who want to focus on that market. The website is sleek, although not the best site available. The colour scheme is a bit disconcerting as yellow and black seem to be the colours of choice, but the website also has blue sections. The layout allows easy navigation. There are a casino, slot machines and an arcade for you to sink your teeth into, but the variety isn’t there as Betfair focuses on sports betting. If variety is your aim, Betfair may not be the site for you. In the contact department, Betfair seems to fair alright. They offer a pretty extensive contact us page with several different options to answer your queries, seven days a week telephone support from 7:30 am to 12:30 am as well as live chat and email. They even, oddly enough, offer their address if you want to write to them which is almost unheard of with online websites.

10Bet

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Overview 10Bet has recently become a premier sports betting option worldwide. They aren’t as well-known as many other bookies, but they were established in 2003 and, therefore, have over a decade of experience. They are a privately owned company that is registered in Curacao. They hold a gaming license from Curacao as well as a license from the UK Gambling Commission. They feature many different types of sports betting but also have an online casino and virtual gaming which can all be accessed from the same account. They accept customers from many different countries even those that are considered grey markets. However, they do not take residents from the United States, Turkey, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, France, Hungary and Gibraltar. The site is available in over ten different languages which are nice but is less languages than a lot of other internationally focused sites. Betting Bonuses The deposit bonus is larger than most other sites. Most bookies won’t offer customers much more than £50 for new players. At 10Bet, depending on where you’re located, you’re guaranteed a minimum of £100 and up to £200 as a first deposit bonus. They also provide frequent reloads. However, players in Poland and Ukraine are not eligible for this promotion. Many additional conditions are depending on where you live so be sure to read the fine print. Other than the deposit bonus, no player loyalty program appears to be available. This is an interesting choice, and it could easily turn off perspective customers. They also offer an affiliate program where you can market and recruit players to the 10bet site and for each player that signs up you receive a bonus. The more friends you refer, the higher reward you get. Advantages 10Bet odds are far from the best in the market, but they are certainly above average compared to some other sites. One thing that could be an attribute is that they post their odds very early. They are faster than other online betting sites which could allow a player to get bets in before the market moves. This is ideal for small stakes or novice betting, but larger bettors will feel limited by the low maximum payout limit. This limit is one of the cheapest online. This has led to a series of complaints from users. They are often accused of limiting bettors too quickly before they even have a chance to explain bonus deposits leading to a multitude of complaints. Another source of complaint seems to stem from their customer service although this may just be an extension of the issues with limitations. Their betting platform appears to be excellent. The software is clean and sleek in appearance, and the layout is good for those interested in the top markets of the day. After that, it’s a very long list of the sports they offer which can be almost overwhelming. If you are someone who loves to play multiple markets, 10Bet might be for you. Their pre-markets can outmatch just about anyone online, and their live betting is also exceptional.

Bet-At-Home

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Overview Bet-at-home is a newer venue for betting compared to some of the more well-known sites such as William Hill. The company founded in 2000, has gone through several relaunches in an attempt to bring out the best gaming platform they could. The most recent launch in 2013 brought many improvements including an extensive array of sports to bet on, a casino room, poker, and live betting. It is based in Germany and holds several gaming licenses including the Italian Gaming Authority AAMS, the British Gambling Commission, and the Maltese Gaming Authority. They offer sports, casino and live betting with both mobile and desktop versions of the platform.  Strangely enough, they do not provide horse race betting on their site which makes them an oddity among their peers. Their website is known for having an honest approach to betting which is firstly reflected in the straightforward name of their website. Even though they seem to have a no-frills name compared to other sites, they don’t lack in the bells and whistles on the site.  They have all the polish of a gambling company that has been around for far longer than Bet-at-home. Betting Bonuses The initial sign-up bonus from Bet-at-home is a £20 free matched bet.  So anything you deposit is matched in free bets up to the value of £20.  If you deposit a sum greater than £20, you will receive a £20 free bet. You can claim the free bet if you have not made a deposit to your Bet-at-home account and you must claim the free bet within ten days of making your first deposit. However, you must be UK based. Within 90 days you must roll over the deposit and the free bet five times by placing bets of odds 1.7 and greater.  If you paid in more than £40, you must rollover £300 in the same period. Also, to claim the bonus, you must not have made a withdrawal, and they are only applicable to sports and live betting. Advantages There are a few advantages to using Bet-at-home. The site itself is offered in thirteen different languages which are ideal for folks who want to be able to bet in their mother tongue. It does have far fewer choices for depositing money and getting payouts, but this is made up for by the fact that they pay out on bets immediately. This eliminates headaches when trying to use your various winnings to bet on other events or games. It also features around the clock live betting so no matter what your schedule or where you are in the world, you can get in on the action of your favourite event. They also offer top odds which are perfect for those looking for the best payouts. Additionally, they have over 4.5 million users which mean there is never a shortage of other players to talk to or bet. In short, bet-at-home is a great option for those that do a lot of betting and can cash in on the bonuses offered.

The goal glut ‘trap’ in soccer live betting

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The Best Betting Markets for Soccer Bettors

Outburst of goals in the opening 45 minutes of the match is of utmost importance in soccer live betting. This dynamics can either lead the bettors into making a rightful decision to place the bet on the winner, or it can mislead them into supporting short-priced favourites. The article below puts an accent on the significance of the remarkable and rare events of multiple goals scoring in the first half of the soccer game. The goal glut in the first half of a soccer match or multiple goals in a very short time window can mislead the live bettors and make them misjudge the further dynamics of the match and the performance of the teams. No matter how memorable or spectacular this outburst may seem, it should not trap bettors into false assumption of the end of the match. The Bradford City short-term ‘miracle’ A good example of this is the match between Chelsea and Bradford City. Although Bradford City team was falling behind Chelsea with a score of 2-0, the four goals scored by Bradford City may trap viewers and bettors into believing that Bradford City is superior to the Chelsea team. This is true especially because in all other occasions Chelsea would prove itself as the superior one. Having this in mind we can conclude that besides the spectacular and rare scoring of 4 goals in very short time intervals, this is a very poor indicator of the future development of a match. Analysis of goalscoring schemes The number of goals per game in the Premier League is proportionate to the strengths of the teams and it is set at the average 2.6 goals. However, this number varies. This means that two teams which are evenly strong are expected to score less than the league average total and a mismatch between them is expected to see rise towards 3 goals per game. Statistically, the greater the gap between the teams’ strength, the smaller the likelihood of a goalless match, and as the mismatch between the teams increases, the probability of 4 goals increases as well. Risk taking increases in the second half of the match and thus the second half sees about 55 % of the total goals scored in the course of one match. The average scores for a typical Premier League game are 1.19 for the first half and 1.45 for the second half. One or fewer first half goals is typical for nearly 70 % of the Premier League games, and over 10 % of the matches see a score of 3 or more goals in the first 45 minutes. When analyzing the games, when the first half of the match already ends up in three or more goals, there are usually 2 possible schemes. Namely, if the course of a game is better determined through short-term events that occurred recently, then one may expect this trend in scoring to continue throughout the second half. On the other hand, if we look back to the match between Chelsea and Bradford City, then one can come to a conclusion that extraordinary and surprising development of events may occur randomly in scoring patterns and the odds in the second half should be in line with our pre-game expectations, i.e. the dynamics of the match should be based on the relative strength of the two contestants. This supports the claim that the number of goals in the second period is very closely related to the pre-game estimates about the number of goals that will be scored in the second half. Monitoring a five season period in the Premier League, the findings are that if soccer teams scored three or more goals in the first 45 minutes of the game, then an average of 1.5 goals are to be expected in the second half, and furthermore, in the case of one or less than one goal in the opening half, the second half should see on average 1.52 goals altogether. This pattern suggests that extraordinary scoring in the first half leads to a minor, if any, increase in the second half. Greater scoring in the first period of, for example, three or more goals, leads to greater chances of losing the placed bet because usually those games where scoring was more modest in the first 45 minutes result in greater chances of win. CONCLUSION Taking everything into account, we can conclude that as much as goals can appear in gluts in a single match, this does not imply that this dynamic will continue steadily throughout the match or in any other future matches. This is especially the case with weaker teams playing against a stronger team, when the former has a sudden unexpected burst of goals and scores at a very rapid rate against the latter. The Chelsea and Bradford City example is a perfect one showing how the rising trend of scoring by the weaker Bradford City within the same match should never be mistaken as Chelsea being weak and losing its high place in the Premier League. Nor should it mean that Bradford City is suddenly, out of the blue, on its way towards conquering the Premier League. Short term trends, as shown by Bradford City, are always less predictive of what future holds regarding winners and losers in soccer matches than long term steady performance by already renowned teams. Thus, in soccer live betting one should always make sure to not rely on spectacular gluts of goals in the opening 45 minutes of the match and based on that, place bets on short-priced favourite teams.

The Poisson approach in live soccer betting

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 It is a well known fact that the possibilities of a draw in a soccer match rise with every minute that a game remains goalless. In general, the greatest variables in live soccer betting are goals and thus they are the most significant factors that can alter live odds as well. Other game factors which may change the course of a match include red and yellow cards. What one bettor should be aware of when live betting are the current match odds. In order to determine whether the current game odds are accurate, one should be able to consider and calculate all the odds known by that point of time, taking into account the average number of goals each team will score at a particular time, and thus make a close evaluation of the outcome of the game. Poisson approach : Predict the score in soccer betting How to use the Poisson approach In order to better explain the Poisson calculation method, we can take the match between West Ham vs. Manchester City in the 9th week of the Premier League. According to the achievements of the both teams, over a longer period of time, West Ham was rated far below the champions of the year before that, Manchester City, and thus, West Ham was expected to score 0.85 goals against Manchester City, with expectation of 1.90 goals. According to Poisson approach calculations, City would be expected to win 62 % of such games, as opposed to West Ham with 15 % probability of winning and 23 % chance of ending in a draw. These were also the odds available prior to the start of the match. Statistically speaking, goal scoring rises as the match progresses, due to the fatigue of the players and risk taking) and live bettors should be aware of these facts. Furthermore, 45 % of goals shall be scored before the initial period is over, and the remaining 55 % after the half time.   The equation, derived from the Premier League scoring data, for the calculation of the goal expectations of one side at a particular point in the match, is as follows:   Remaining Goal Expectation = Initial Expectation * Proportion of Time Remaining ^ 0.85   If we take a team, for example, which is initially expected to score 1 goal for the entire game, in the beginning of the second half, the average goal expectancy for the remaining time shall be calculated by the equation below: 1*(0.5^0.85) = 0.55 Thus, the initial goal expectation still remains in the second half, after the interval. What is very useful for live bettors here, is that this equation can be used at any time of the match to calculate the chances for remaining goals While no goal was scored in the first 21 minutes, before West Ham took the lead with the first goal and 78 % of the game was yet to be played, the goal expectations for the both teams had fallen from initial 0.85 and 1.9 to 0.69 and 1.54 goals respectively. If we calculate all of this with the Poisson method, we can come up with figures and probabilities which can tell us whether the match will end in a home win, away win or draw. How a goal alters the winning probability in a match If a soccer match remains goalless for 21 minutes, then the probability of a draw shall rise from 0.23 to 0.26. In this fashion, in the example of West Ham vs. City, this event decreased City’s chance of winning from 0.62 to 0.58, but West Ham chances remained similar at 0.16. However, after the first goal by West Ham, the figures changed drastically. Namely, with 21 minutes of the match having elapsed, and with a score of 1-0, after applying decayed initial goal expectations for each side, West Ham gained a 42 % chance of victory. Just as a reminder, the chances of West Ham to win this match, prior to that first goal, were set to 16 %. This is just an illustration of how big an impact a goal may have on a game. Therefore, in each live match and live betting, the possible scenarios regarding the outcome, are always affected by the initial strength of each team, the time remaining and the current score, alongside other factors, such as red cards. On the contrary, the betting data from the day of the match shows that only 35 % chance of winning was predicted for them. The Poisson method can also be used to calculate the likelihood of one team gaining one or three points. Namely, Manchester City, losing by 2-0 against West Ham, has to win the remaining part of the match by scoring two goals to gain a point, or by scoring three or more goals to gain all three points. Although City scored one goal in the 77th minute of the match, the remaining time was still too short and West Ham continued to be the leading team with about 70 % chance of winning immediately after the score by City.   CONCLUSION Generally speaking, a home team will always win in about 70 % of the matches, if they score the opening goal in the first 21 minutes. The Poisson approach predicted 42 % winning chance for West Ham at that point, taking into account the abilities of the respective teams. Hence, the bettors can take great advantages of the Poisson approach since they can calculate the odds during the game, taking into account the field events. They are able to make their own judgments of the outcome in the end of the match, noting when a goal is scored and identifying any opportunities which may be profitable for them in the form of returns.

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