How successful are Premier League Teams in Handicap betting?
In order to get better odds, more and more bettors avoid the traditional soccer betting 1X2. Nowadays, they tend to turn more towards Handicap betting because it surely provides better returns. But, what can we learn from the past performances of Handicap betting and how can we use these data for future Handicap betting? What kind of information does past Handicap statistics provide us with? Below are statistics from the last seven season of the Premier League, on the handicap market, with information which teams performed better than expected. The traditional 1X2 system provides us with information regarding how many times one team won the match, played in draw or lost and the odds for each result. However, if we consider the handicap betting, we can find out how one team performed against the market’s expectation. This gives better and more precise assessment of the result probabilities, because it combines both valuable information and information from the crowd. When a bettor places a bet on a team and this team wins, then the team is said to have ‘covered the spread’. If one team covers the spread in more than 50 % of the matches, it is said to have beaten the bookmakers in handicap betting. Handicap performance of Premier League teams for 2010/11-2016/17 Team 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 Average Arsenal 39.50% 42.10% 44.70% 57.90% 42.10% 47.40% 44.70% 45.50% Bournemouth AFC* N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 34.20% 52.60% 43.40% Brighton and Hove Albion* N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Burnley* N/A N/A N/A 39.50% 39.50% N/A 50.00% 43.00% Chelsea 34.20% 28.90% 52.60% 57.90% 47.40% 28.90% 54.10% 43.40% Crystal Palace* N/A N/A N/A 50.00% 57.90% 47.40% 42.10% 49.40% Everton 42.10% 39.50% 42.10% 44.70% 44.70% 50.00% 52.60% 45.10% Huddersfield Town* N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Leicester City* N/A N/A N/A N/A 44.70% 71.10% 42.10% 52.60% Liverpool 39.50% 31.60% 39.50% 44.70% 39.50% 39.50% 50.00% 40.60% Newcastle United* 47.40% 60.50% 44.70% 44.70% 31.60% 39.50% N/A 44.70% Manchester City 42.10% 57.90% 34.20% 55.30% 52.60% 36.80% 39.50% 45.50% Manchester United 47.40% 52.60% 47.40% 44.70% 42.10% 47.40% 47.40% 47.00% Southampton* N/A N/A 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 52.60% 39.50% 48.40% Stoke City 50% 52.60% 55.30% 63.20% 55.30% 52.60% 50.00% 54.00% Swansea City* N/A 50.00% 47.40% 39.50% 47.40% 47.40% 45.90% 46.30% Tottenham Hotspur 42.10% 52.60% 55.30% 50.00% 52.60% 50.00% 53.80% 50.90% Watford* N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 44.70% 41.00% 42.90% W.B.A 52.60% 52.60% 47.40% 47.40% 52.60% 55.30% 60.50% 52.60% West Ham United* 44.70% N/A 52.60% 47.40% 52.60% 60.50% 42.10% 50.00% Stoke City – Consistently outperforming expectation With Mark Hughes, The Potters’s style of play was considerably changed and they finished 14th. Before, when they had Tony Pulis as a manager and after winning the promotion of the Premier League, they were considered hard to beat. Their change of manager increased their percentage of covering the spread (63.2 % in the season of 2013/14), but from 2010/11 onwards, they have been consistently covering the spread (on average 54 %). Thus, Stoke City is the only team to cover the spread 50 % or more in the period of the last seven campaigns. Therefore, if they continue with this practice, it would be very safe to place a bet on Stoke City’s handicap odds as it can give great returns, even if they do not win or win only by a narrow margin. Does reputation play a role in the Liverpool case? Liverpool won the league for the last time in 1990. However, their reputation influences their handicap odds a lot. They have 40.60 % average of covering the spread in the last seven seasons and no club which has been in the division throughout the same period has lower than this. As a matter of fact, Liverpool managed to cover the spread 50 % of the time only last season, out of all the previous seven seasons. This means that, if bettors want to place a bet, they should bet on Liverpool’s opponents to cover the spread throughout the season because it will be more profitable than if they place a bet on Liverpool at 1X2 odds. Why is Tottenham Hotspur predictable? In 2010/11 Tottenham Hotspur had 40.10 % coverage of spread, but over the past seven seasons, they had average of 50.90 % of the time. Bettors can use these data for future performance because this average may not provide a handicap betting opportunity. Even if the Tottenham Hotspur seems to be failing to cover the spread, their previous record show that a positive run will follow Everton’s steady improvement offers a potential value Since 2011/12 Everton has been constantly improving their ability to cover the spread, with an overall average of 45.10 % in the last seven seasons. In reality they do little progression regarding how often they cover the spread. However, if this trend continues, and Everton constantly outperforms market expectation, it could be valuable to bet on their handicap odds in the Premier League season of 2017/18.
