soccer tips

Do bookings have effect on live soccer betting?

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Soccer Betting Resources One of the most significant events at a soccer match is the red card. The article below shows the importance of both red and yellow card (bookings), how the game is affected by them, what are the adjustments the managers do and how are teams put in disadvantageous positions because of bookings. How does a red card change the game? The immediate effect of a red card is undoubtedly the loss of a player. But, statistics show how this affects negatively and to which extend a team is affected when one player receives a red card. In a sample of 60 Premier League games in 2012, where a team received a red card, in 20 % of the games teams had a decrease in points compared to their predicted points which were based on the score before the player was given a red card. In a sample of 20 teams in the Premier League, which were in a draw at the time of receiving the red card, 65 % lost the game in the end, 30 % ended up in a draw and only 5 % of them managed to win. In a study by Titman et al. (2012) treats the matter of what are the benefits that teams that play against a team which has received a red card. The findings from the study are that the rate of goals scored by the team without a red card earned increases for 64.5 %. Other studies treating this matter in the Premier League seasons show that if a team loses a player in the first minute, due to a red card, their average goal difference in the game would be reduced by about 1.5 goals. This decreases to 0.85 if a red card is given to a player at half time and to 0.62 at 60 minutes. This means that the longer a team is without a player, the worse off they will be. Taking the above into consideration, a bettor is able to measure if live odds have been adjusted to reflect the red card events and also to measure the effects of yellow card, which the most common indicators to red cards. What is the significance of the yellow card? The bettors should acknowledge the importance of the yellow card because a yellow card is one step to a red one. Therefore, the probability that a player will get a red card grows as more and more yellow cards are given in the course of a game and according to Titman et al. (2012), a yellow card to any of the player on a team in the Premier League more than doubles the hazard of a straight red card to any other player on that team. Another curious fact, according to Titman, is that a team’s booking rate increases by 25 % if the opposing team receives a yellow card and this reinforces the notion that referees have a tendency to ‘even up’ decisions during the game. How do managers change tactics after cards? The situation when a team loses a player due to a red card requires reaction by the manager to change his tactics. In this way, the bettors should be able to think like the manager and correctly weigh the situation to determine how important is the player that was sent off to the team, how the card affects the shape of the team, what can be done to smooth the situation and how the red card will affect the rival. If we analyze the last 16 Champions League second-leg game between Manchester United and Real Madrid in 2013, we can see how a red card makes impact on the game. United were controlling the game and nullified Madrid’s potent attack by using Danny Welbeck to restrict Madrid’s most creative player Xabi Alonso, after the score of an own goal made by Sergio Ramos. This put Manchester United in a leading position with 2-1. However, in the 56th minute, the winger Nani was sent off and besides having one man less, United also had to move Welbeck to left midfield so that they are able to preserve their second bank of four – and this allowed Alonso to roam free and become more creative. In just four minutes, Madrid’s manager Jose Mourinho made a substitution where he replaced Arbeola with Luka Modric and swapping Sami Khedira to right back. All of these events changed the game and with Modric controlling the centre of midfield with passing sequences and delivered the equaliser, collecting a pass some 20 metres from goal. After the equalisation, Real retained the ball and scored their second goal within 13 minutes of Nani’s red card. Does being away place teams at a disadvantage? As we have already written about the Home Field Advantage, home teams are always in a slight advantage than the away teams. But, is it possible that they also get help by the referees? Statistics from the Champions League, from 2002-2007, show that in only 24.3 % of games, the home team received more yellow cards than the away team. This suggests that perhaps the probabilities of yellow and red cards are different for home and away teams. In that period between 2002-2007, home teams received red cards in 6.42 % of games, whereas the away teams received them in 11.82 % of games. Therefore, in percentages, away teams earned red cards 84 % more often than home teams. On the other hand, in 82.89 % of the games, there no red cards. According to Anders & Rotthoff from 2004 to 2009, the effect of cards on the home team is different to that of the away team. Titman et al. (2012) found that a home red card increases an away teams’ scoring rate by 60 % and decreases the home sides’ scoring rate by 17 %. Increase by 69 % in scoring is evident for the home team after a red card for the … Read more

How important are corner kicks in soccer live betting?

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Soccer Betting Resources Live soccer bettors should know that corners kicks are not worthless in live soccer betting so that they are able to place a good bet.   World Cup 2014 Corners There were 474 corner situations in the initial group stage, out of which 19 were turned into goals. This was slightly higher conversion rate of 4 %. But, this conversion rate has an extremely big effect on the qualification for the knockout stages. In the group games, 14 teams scored at least one from a corner and 11 of those went into the Round of 16. In Group A, all four sides scored at least once from a corner, so two teams were bound not to advance and the overall progression rate for corner scoring teams was even more impressive. In figures, nearly a quarter of the total goals scored by these 14 sides were from corners. In order to be able to calculate the possibilities, we should focus on how likely is a side to convert a corner into a goal, when given an average number of corners. If we use the more common 3 % conversion rates from corners and applying them to the group format of Brazil 2014, there was around a 7 % chance that a side would convert exactly two goals from corner kicks in their three group stage matches. Thus, individually, one side may score at least one goal from a corner n around 15 % of their games and in one match there will be at least one such goal scored by either side 25 % of the time. The likelihood above are not to be disregarded, especially is the goals that one side may concede from a corner are taken into account. This is a better way to calculate than to concentrate only on goals that may be scored in this way, which is mostly used in such studies. In the group stages of the World Cup Finals which consist of 32 teams and in the USA, Mexico and Colombia, we should have expected between two or three teams to have scored exactly two goals from corners. Playing against Italy, Uruguay managed to turn the situation in its favour when they scored from a corner. Therefore, from a 15 % chance of qualifying for the Round of 16, in the last 10 minutes in the group stage, they managed to increase this chance to 90 %. Brazil needed a similar goal to win over first Chile in the initial knockout game and then Colombia in the quarter final. Surprise qualifiers, Mexico and USA also owed their progression partly to finely executed goals from a corner kick. Should corners be considered worthless? As the situation in soccer is, goals are scarce and when it comes to goals scored from corners, no matter how surprising they may be, they have a great effect. But, how to define their effectiveness? This has always been considered as a matter where subjective opinion prevails. Diego Godin’s emphatic first contact header for Uruguay against Italy was the definitive example of a goal scored from a corner delivery. But less clear cut was Liverpool’s equally dramatic last minute winner at Blackburn in 2012. Agger flicked on a 40 yard punt from halfway and Carroll headed home a last minute winner, so the goal originated from a pass 50 yards from goal, but the defensive confusion in Blackburn’s defence and Liverpool’s temporary attacking set up comprising their two central defenders owed everything to the corner kick that had immediately preceded the goal. Whether the goal originated from a corner kick or not should be looked into carefully and a cut-off point may be required. However, to define that a corner is the initial point and three subsequent passes is merely a convenience for the data collector. It is not something that is firmly based in reality. A corner kick disrupts the whole order of the game. Namely, the defence has to be reordered and players who normally play attack, now have to play the defence. Furthermore, players with aerial talents have to be included and these players may be more usable on the ground in other phases of the match. Barcelona and Spain have recently used mixed strategies to one dimensional approach. Therefore, corner kicks and the threat they pose mean more than just the action that they create in the goalmouth. How much a corner is worth? There is nothing that we can use in order to compare goals from corners to other forms of scoring. Corners have a low conversion rate of 3-4 % and therefore they are dismissed very often. If they, together with their subsequent passes are considered as another passing sequence, then they take up 5 % of such on-field actions. But in any case, they account for 15 % of the goals that are scored in one season. If we use data from the EPL, 50 final third entries are necessary to score a goal which is not a goal scored from a corner. Therefore, these goals that are scored in final third entries may be suitable comparison to corners. However, even if we manage to compare goals scored from corners to other methods of scoring, we will see that the efficiency at which corner kicks are converted to goals is again extremely low. On the other hand, we should never disregard corners just because their conversion rate is very small. If we look at this from another perspective, we will also see that other on-field actions almost always fail to end in a goal. If we compare corner kicks to penalty kicks, we can conclude that the conversion rate of penalty kicks is about 80 %, compared to 4 % of corner kicks. But, the penalty kicks is an event which is very rare in football, whereas corner kicks happen very often. In order one corner to be successful, two players have to connect in a well practiced routine. … Read more

How to calculate the home field advantage a team has in soccer?

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The article below explains the home field advantage (HFA) a team has and how to calculate it for greater benefit and even better than the bookmakers. Since 1888, every football season has shown the evident fact that teams perform better when they play at home, than on a neutral pitch or away. Throughout one season, home teams have scored more goals than away teams. However, soccer teams are highly unbalanced and not all of them have manage to earn the same home-field advantages than other and therefore it is very difficult to come up with one general home-field-advantage handicap. What bettors should always take into account is to know which data is relevant. Namely, would it be relevant to take Chelsea’s and Manchester City’s home field advantage which has increased significantly after their purchase by rich owners? Does Arsenal’s form of pre-2005 be taken into account even if it plays at another stadium? Calculating home field advantage Home field advantage may be calculated by the following equation: HFA = (HF – HA) / 19 where: HF is the number of goals scored at home per season HA is the number of goals conceded at home In the end (19) divide by the number of home games played in a season. How to use home field advantage with Asian Handicaps? When the home handicap is less than the home field advantage for one team, it might make a sensible bet. However, this is just one factor to consider when making a balanced betting strategy. What influences on home field advantage? Certain factors influence on the home field advantage and they are as follows: –       Home crowds –       Stadium Familiarity –       Style of Soccer –       The Referee Home crowds influence the home field advantage a lot. For example, before 2013/13 season, Liverpool majorly underperformed for a club of their size. They finished at the 7th, 6th, 8th and 7th place. The Reds had a better HFA than Tottenham in all but one season despite finishing below them in the league. Does this imply that how Liverpool performs at home is affected by home field advantages more than others? Before Arsenal moved to the Emirates Stadium for the 2006 season, they had great success in 1997/98 when they won five Premier League seasons, before the end of 2005. In the course of this period, their average home field advantage was 1.51. But, after moving to the Emirates Stadium, their average home field advantage dropped to 1.23. However, gradually over time, they showed signs of progress which only signifies that they were getting accustomed to the new pitch and started feeling at home at the Emirates Stadium. Another important factor is the style of soccer one team adopts. In 2013/14 Liverpool’s HFA increased from 0.89 in 2012/13 to 1.84. In this period they had the same manager and relatively similar team. However, manager Brendan Rodgers adopted a more attacking strategy and this increased the goalscorring opportunities. This resulted in almost a goal per game increase in HFA. The last, but the most influencing factor for the HFA in soccer, according to Scorecasting written by Moskowitz and Wertheim, is the referee. Their findings show that home teams always receive small preferential treatment by the referees. Although this preferential treatment is given unconsciously, the referees are always emotionally affected by the home crowd and sometimes make subconscious decisions in favour of the home team. Moreover, according to the Harvard Research Assistant, Ryan Boyko, after studying 5,000 Premier League games from 1992 to 2006, concluded that for every 10,000 home team fans, home team advantage increased by 0.1 goals.   His study further showed that referees, especially inexperienced ones, often give penalties to home team players. Therefore, it is very important to include the referee profiling in the overall soccer betting strategy. 

What to make of possessions in soccer and what statistics say about them?

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Live match analysis lately regularly quote possessions statistics and the general assumption is that more possessions is a positive thing. This article treats the matter of possessions, is there any truth in the assumption that the more possessions, the better and to what extent should bettors use possession statistics when making predictions of the teams ability to win a game. The manager of at the time, Brendan Rogers, often repeated the following: if you can dominate the game with the ball, you have a 79 % chance of winning. This is taken as a support of the possession based football.   But, if we look at the recent competitions from a statistical view point, we can see that the numbers we get for the short passing, possession oriented approach are mixed and not always in its favour. In 2014 World Cup, Spain bowed out oat the group stage although they had over 60 % of the possession in defeats, first to Netherlands and then to Chile. At the Euro 2012, they succeeded due to their semi-final penalty shootout against Portugal, where Portugal only had a minority share of possession throughout the tournament. In 2008/09 and 2010/11 Barcelona managed to be first in Europe with tournament possession figures in the mid to high 60% and pass numbers averaging around 700 per game. But sandwiched in between were wins for Inter Milan, 45% overall possession in the competition, barely a third in the final and just 400 passes per game in 2009/10, followed by Chelsea’s 47% overall possession in 2011/12. In situations involving head-to-head meetings, more often the side that avoids possession is the winner. For example, Chelsea’s aggregate win over Barcelona in 2011/12, where Chelsea gained just 20 % of the ball and in the case of Real Madrid’s 5-0 aggregate trouncing of Bayern Munchen at the UCL semi-final stage in 2014, where they had less than 30 % overall possession. All of the above seems to be very contradictive to the assumptions made by Rogers that the most chances of winning a side has is if they keep the ball for longer than the opponent team. When possession stats are combined with other key stats Possession is a useful indicator if used in combination with other more fundamental primary stats because raw possession is a secondary statistic and is only a constituent of the primary ones. If they are good at tackles or interceptions, teams get possession and the only way to keep it is if they pass well. Furthermore, possession is then used to create good chances and when these chances are well converted, a goal is scored. If more goals are scored in this way than the other side, then a game is won. Therefore, as we can see from this interdependence of events, possession is a strong indicator only if the side knows how to make the best use of it and how to create the best passes and chances to score a goal. But, on its own, a possession is not a good indicator of how strong one side is. What are the shortcomings of Possession? The tiki taka style of play is characterized by short passing and movement of the ball quickly from one player to the next, short passes and maintaining possession of the ball for the most of the game. So, while Barcelona was playing in a tiki taka style to create chances for its players, Swansea did have a moderate amount of possession. They stayed firmly in their own half of the pitch, doing backward passes in a defensive tactic to prevent the opponent from scoring. That same season 2011/12 in which Swansea created 472 chances with the third best possession stats in EPL, Barcelona created 626 chances while being at the top of La Liga’s possession charts. The four sides surrounding Swansea in the EPL possession chart had similar level of ball retention and created an average of 681 chances throughout the season, which is almost 50 % higher. Swansea finished a worthy 11th. Swansea was a recently promoted team and thus they decided to more use possession to defend themselves, rather than to attack. They did this in order to protect a game start point and this was in the same fashion as when more successful teams use possession to protect their lead. How Mourinho approaches Possession? When faced with more superior teams, teams managed by Jose Mourinho have always chosen to adopt defensive solidity by sacrificing the ball, in roder to score from counter attacks or set plays. Mourinho believes that the team who possesses the ball is often more likely to make mistakes and sometimes, a game can be won by an opponent’s mistake. But, at the same time, he is trying to keep the game in a stalemate. Chelsea under Mourinho in 2014 used this tactic of possession, at Anfield, where they had just 27 % of possession, but anyway won over Liverpool with 2-0. The goals were scored following Gerard mistake and a swift counter attack. The likely possession stats for the game between Liverpool and Chelsea were determined even before the game and therefore, the bettors should have already anticipated them. Pragmatism according to Pulis Sometimes, the best chance for one side to get a good result is to play ‘without’ the ball. This is often negatively perceived by the public, but it is a good way for the team to reach what they aim for. An extremely defensive play at home and away, together with long balls into the half of the opponents and followed by brief pressing attacks, was a pragmatic approach by Stoke City under Tony Pulis. Stoke City were technically inferior against many of their Premier League opponents. In all of their 56 victories under Pulis, they had less than 50 % of the possession. As said before, possession on its own has a very low impact on the overall game. However, possession combined with other primary events that happened … Read more

How are squad rotation and relegation related in soccer?

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In order to improve their form, soccer teams who are having difficulties in the League often change their squad. However, whether this works or not and whether this information can be used in betting is yet to be discovered. In order to check this, data should be examined and see if relationship between the number of players used and relegation exists in soccer.  Derby County is the only team that has ever scored the lowest, 11 points, in the 38 game Premier League in 2007/08. In this season they used 36 different players. In 2013/14, Fulham were relegated using even more players. In general, the quality of those teams which are not among the strongest ones in a League is weaker. Namely, these teams have to call on all of their playing resources for numerous of reasons and these are selected from squad players whose are weaker. Simon Gleave’s concept recognizes the split in the Premier League between habitual title contenders and the rest and this concept is known to be of ‘a superior seven’ and the remaining batch of thirteen regularly changing teams. Thus, it is important to look at the ‘remaining batch of thirteen regularly changing teams’ in order to see whether there is a correlation between results and squad usage.   What do numbers say? If we use the statistics since 1999 and take into consideration the fifteen best performances from the pool of teams outside the superior seven, the findings suggest that all but one used 29 or less players over the season, with the average of just 24.5 players. This means that they used an average of six fewer players than the teams which finished at the bottom in the course of the same timeframe (30.4). The graph below shows the relationship between fewer points and greater numbers of players since 1999. All of the teams from the Premier League, outside of the superior seven, have this correlation in common. Relation of the performance to the number of players over a Season: What we can see from the graph is that the fewer the number of core players are engaged in the field, the greater number of average points scored per game. Why consistent teams matter? The effectiveness of one team increases over a period if as little as possible changes appear on the field. This is true mainly because the players get accustomed with one another in terms of playing style. The important thing to know here is the fact that, by knowing one another, one player can easily guess, by intuition, what the next move of the other may be. This is especially important for best striking partnerships. On the other hand, in defense terms, one team would only improve through practice and familiarity. Why do weaker teams use bigger squads? Continuously weak results call for change. And this is why a manager’s first reaction to constantly bad performance is to make the change. The easiest way to do this is to drop under-performing players and replace them with another player from within the squad. In certain cases, the reason for making changes is the change of the manager midseason in the first place. Considering himself a ‘fresh air’, his first reaction is changing the playing staff There are some other examples, however. Crystal Palace, in the 20th, was appointed a manager, Tony Pulis, in 2014. After outperforming the usual achievements of every relegation threatened team since 1999 that used 31 players, they finished 11th. Taking everything into account, according to statistics, using fewer players actually help the team. There is strong linear correlation between match outcomes and player churn within the season and the more the numbers of players rise, the more the points per game fall. Why does this concern soccer bettors? The nominal value of a player is still the most important for the overall results of one team. Thus, this should be the most significant fact that bettors should take into account when evaluating the abilities of one team. If a team continuously changes personnel, this only implies that it is struggling and will continue to struggle more as the season progresses. This is usually a sign of a lack of talent depth. To take everything into account, bettors should always be aware that correlation between stability of one team selection and increased league points for teams outside of the elite. However, team stability is only one factor which affects on the overall performance of a club throughout a season.

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