How successful are Premier League Teams in Handicap betting?

In order to get better odds, more and more bettors avoid the traditional soccer betting 1X2. Nowadays, they tend to turn more towards Handicap betting because it surely provides better returns. But, what can we learn from the past performances of Handicap betting and how can we use these data for future Handicap betting?   What kind of information does past Handicap statistics provide us with? Below are statistics from the last seven season of the Premier League, on the handicap market, with information which teams performed better than expected. The traditional 1X2 system provides us with information regarding how many times one team won the match, played in draw or lost and the odds for each result. However, if we consider the handicap betting, we can find out how one team performed against the market’s expectation. This gives better and more precise assessment of the result probabilities, because it combines both valuable information and information from the crowd. When a bettor places a bet on a team and this team wins, then the team is said to have ‘covered the spread’. If one team covers the spread in more than 50 % of the matches, it is said to have beaten the bookmakers in handicap betting. Handicap performance of Premier League teams for 2010/11-2016/17   Team 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 Average Arsenal 39.50% 42.10% 44.70% 57.90% 42.10% 47.40% 44.70% 45.50% Bournemouth AFC* N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 34.20% 52.60% 43.40% Brighton and Hove Albion* N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Burnley* N/A N/A N/A 39.50% 39.50% N/A 50.00% 43.00% Chelsea 34.20% 28.90% 52.60% 57.90% 47.40% 28.90% 54.10% 43.40% Crystal Palace* N/A N/A N/A 50.00% 57.90% 47.40% 42.10% 49.40% Everton 42.10% 39.50% 42.10% 44.70% 44.70% 50.00% 52.60% 45.10% Huddersfield Town* N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Leicester City* N/A N/A N/A N/A 44.70% 71.10% 42.10% 52.60% Liverpool 39.50% 31.60% 39.50% 44.70% 39.50% 39.50% 50.00% 40.60% Newcastle United* 47.40% 60.50% 44.70% 44.70% 31.60% 39.50% N/A 44.70% Manchester City 42.10% 57.90% 34.20% 55.30% 52.60% 36.80% 39.50% 45.50% Manchester United 47.40% 52.60% 47.40% 44.70% 42.10% 47.40% 47.40% 47.00% Southampton* N/A N/A 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 52.60% 39.50% 48.40% Stoke City 50% 52.60% 55.30% 63.20% 55.30% 52.60% 50.00% 54.00% Swansea City* N/A 50.00% 47.40% 39.50% 47.40% 47.40% 45.90% 46.30% Tottenham Hotspur 42.10% 52.60% 55.30% 50.00% 52.60% 50.00% 53.80% 50.90% Watford* N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 44.70% 41.00% 42.90% W.B.A 52.60% 52.60% 47.40% 47.40% 52.60% 55.30% 60.50% 52.60% West Ham United* 44.70% N/A 52.60% 47.40% 52.60% 60.50% 42.10% 50.00%   Stoke City – Consistently outperforming expectation With Mark Hughes, The Potters’s style of play was considerably changed and they finished 14th. Before, when they had Tony Pulis as a manager and after winning the promotion of the Premier League, they were considered hard to beat. Their change of manager increased their percentage of covering the spread (63.2 % in the season of 2013/14), but from 2010/11 onwards, they have been consistently covering the spread (on average 54 %). Thus, Stoke City is the only team to cover the spread 50 % or more in the period of the last seven campaigns. Therefore, if they continue with this practice, it would be very safe to place a bet on Stoke City’s handicap odds as it can give great returns, even if they do not win or win only by a narrow margin. Does reputation play a role in the Liverpool case? Liverpool won the league for the last time in 1990. However, their reputation influences their handicap odds a lot. They have 40.60 % average of covering the spread in the last seven seasons and no club which has been in the division throughout the same period has lower than this. As a matter of fact, Liverpool managed to cover the spread 50 % of the time only last season, out of all the previous seven seasons. This means that, if bettors want to place a bet, they should bet on Liverpool’s opponents to cover the spread throughout the season because it will be more profitable than if they place a bet on Liverpool at 1X2 odds. Why is Tottenham Hotspur predictable? In 2010/11 Tottenham Hotspur had 40.10 % coverage of spread, but over the past seven seasons, they had average of 50.90 % of the time. Bettors can use these data for future performance because this average may not provide a handicap betting opportunity. Even if the Tottenham Hotspur seems to be failing to cover the spread, their previous record show that a positive run will follow Everton’s steady improvement offers a potential value Since 2011/12 Everton has been constantly improving their ability to cover the spread, with an overall average of 45.10 % in the last seven seasons. In reality they do little progression regarding how often they cover the spread. However, if this trend continues, and Everton constantly outperforms market expectation, it could be valuable to bet on their handicap odds in the Premier League season of 2017/18.

Applying Elo ratings to soccer betting

What every bettor should consider when planning to place a bet in soccer are the Elo ratings and how to make great use of this method in order to increase profits. Blow you may read more regarding this method.   Elo ratings is a method developed by Hungarian-born American Arpad Elo. As a master level chess player, he invented this method as a chess rating system to serve as a comparing tool of the skill levers of players in which two teams compete against each other. However, after a while, this method found its use in many other sports to assess the performance of teams. How it works? The essence of the Elo ratings lies in the fact that the winner takes points from the loser. The number of points at steak depends on the rating difference between the opposing teams. When a team which has high ratings wins again a low-rated team, the losing team loses only a few rating points. On the contrary, when a low-rated teams wins against a high-rated one, larger number of rating points will be transferred. When it is draw, points are shared equally. Mathematics Let’s take, for example, Real Madrid vs. Manchester City. In a match for the second leg of Champion league’s semi-final. They both are high on the list and according to ClubElo rankings, Real Madrid is with 2074 points and Manchester City with 1861 points. If we calculate 5 % of their respective ranking, Real Madrid will risk 104 points and Manchester City 93 and the tota pot will contain 197 points. Taking into account the three possible outcomes of the match, it will look as follows: If Real Madrid wins (1.518*). Their ratings increases by 93 to 2167 and City rating decreases to 1768. If Manchester City wins (6.86*). Their rating increases by 104 to 1965 and Real Madrid’s rating decreases to 1790. In case of a draw (4.64*). The pot (197) shall be divided equally between the two teams 98.5:98.5 in a slight increase to 1866.5 for City and a slight decrease to 2068.5 for Real Madrid. Other factors The above example shows that a draw of 1-1 between the two teams is a better result for City than it is for Real, taking into account that the first match ended in a goalless draw. Thus Real Madrid cannot walk away slightly penalized for not being able to progress to the Champions League final when playing at home. This is one of the flaws of this Elo method. Namely, what we saw above is a basic mathematics. The reality is slightly different because this method does not take into account other factors which affect the game to greater extent. Everyone knows that many other factors are important for the game, and among these is the home advantage factor. Thus, these calculations with the Elo method are usually adjusted to take into account other major circumstances, such as home advantage, goal difference, two-leg matches etc. the Elo ratings of the top 10 teams according to EloClub are as follows: Team Elo value  Real Madrid 2081 FC  Barcelona 2020  Bayern 1997  Atlético 1950 Juventus 1941  Chelsea 1906  Tottenham 1885  Paris SG 1874  Monaco 1872  Man City 1864 *Last accessed on 24.07.2017 How to use Elo ratings when placing a bet in soccer? As Elo ratings method does not take into account individual players’ conditions, it is very hard to say for sure that its predictive power is on a high level, especially when new circumstances, such as injuries, new managers/players, tactics etc. occur. Thus, bettor should always be aware of these factors when using this method as a reference, as it is always based on past performances. However, it provides good statistical data for calculation of probabilities of the outcomes with great accuracy. Therefore, when searching for value bets, or bets with positive expected value, it can be used as a reliable tool. Thus, it can be especially useful in competitions such as the Champion League round of 16 because the weaker teams have already been eliminated and the final stages are always harder to predict as the competition is nearing towards completion.

The significance of penalty in soccer

Very often than not, a team wins or loses after penalty kicks in soccer. This is in general a result of the fact that soccer is a game in which not too many goals are scored and sometimes the only way to determine the winner is through penalty kicks. This is very important for the game; however, is it valuable for bettors and can they rely on penalties when deciding about the performance of a team and which team to place a bet on? What is penalty and when is it performed in soccer? The football court contains a penalty area within and the direct free kick a football player performs inside this area is called a penalty kick. This penalty kick is awarded when a player from the attacking team commits an offence while in the penalty area, in front of the goal of the opposite team. The spot from which this direct kick is performed is 12 yards far from the center of the goal. After being kicked, if the ball bounces back from the goal frame or from the goal keeper, the game continues, but the player who performed the free kick may not be the first player to touch the bounced ball. As no two matches in soccer are the same, how often a penalty occurs varies greatly from one game to another, and also for this to be determined, it is important to take into consideration the rate at which they are converted. However, the rate that penalty shots are in reality conversed into goals is lower than one may believe. Below is shown how often a penalty is awarded and the mean conversion rate over a three season period: League Average penalties per game Average conversion rate Serie A 0.32 75% La Liga 0.28 73% Bundesliga 0.27 76% Ligue 1 0.27 75% Premier League 0.23 80% Who benefits from penalties the most? There is a difference between the rates at which team win and concede penalties. Thus, knowing how to make this difference is of utmost importance for bettors. In the table below are presented the best 10 teams which got the best for/against penalty ratio in the best 5 European leagues: Team Penalties for Penalties against Penalty ratio Barcelona 88 30 2.93 Bayern 79 30 2.63 Bournemouth 43 17 2.53 Chelsea 79 37 2.14 Napoli 76 36 2.11 Real Madrid 91 44 2.07 Man City 74 36 2.06 PSG 67 34 1.97 Borussia Dortmund 48 25 1.92 Leicester 37 20 1.85   It is somewhat easy to calculate the probability of one player to score or the goalkeeper to save a penalty. In order to be able to better understand when a penalty can be scored or missed, the bettors can apply game theory to a penalty kick situation. The player who will perform the penalty kick always makes a strategy, which is called a ‘mixed strategy’, where it will be difficult for the goalkeeper to predict in which direction the ball will go. An important thing for this strategy is whether the player who kicks the penalty is right- or left-footer, meaning which foot he uses when kicking the ball. This choice determines their ‘stronger side’. Those who use the left leg, kick the ball in direction-right and vice-versa. If they want to achieve an optimal result, their choice should be completely random because Game Theory claims that in 61.5 % of the time, players chose their ‘stronger side’. Players such as Yaya Touré, Harry Kane and Mark Noble use a mix strategy without a clear pattern and their mean penalty conversion rate is over 85 %, whereas the league average conversion rate is 80 %. On the other hand, players like Eden Hazard, Christian Benteke and Mario Balotelli use a technique in which they wait for the goalkeeper to dive before kicking the ball. This technique makes the Game Theory less perfect and as a result it brings limitations to it. Why is penalty kick different and more effective than a penalty shootout? Penalty shootouts are not as important for the outcome of the soccer match in betting terms. However, there are differences between the penalty kick during the 90 minutes period, and those taken after these 90 minutes pass. The average conversion rate of 75.8 % during the 90 minutes of the match decrease to 70 % in the period of penalty shootout. The most important reasons for this difference are numerous and they include penalty takers who are not very experienced in this field, the pressure put on the penalty takers and the predictability of the direction in which the ball goes as there is a lack of randomness. Valuable statistics One benefit from penalty kicks for soccer betting is the ability to put a value to penalties in terms of points that have been won or lost during the season. The statistics below may be interesting to see and good to have in mind when placing a bet: Jean-Francois Gillet saved three penalties in a single game for Mechelen vs. Anderlecht (October 2015). Mohamed Jedidi is the player who re-took penalty for several times in a single match. The times he re-took it was six and this was a result of him infringing the rules every time he tried to shoot the ball. (2004 Olympics, Tunisia vs. Montenegro). Yaya Toure is the best penalty taker still actively playing soccer in the top five leagues in European soccer (100% conversion rate from 15 penalties). The most penalties in a single match were missed by Martin Palermo (Argentina vs. Colombia, 1999) – he missed three penalties. Crystal Palace vs. Brighton & Hove Albion in 1989 saw the record for the most penalties awarded in a single 90-minute match, and that was 5.

What is Kelly Criterion in soccer betting?

Since bettors are always driven by their motions and bias while betting, the advice is to always look for a mathematical edge when placing a bet. The Kelly Criterion is of great importance in order to determine how much money to place in a bet and bettors should make efforts to learn how to use it.     The two most important aspects that matter in soccer betting is how and how much to bet. Since ‘how much to bet’ implies financial decisions, finding the financial products to invest in and how much to subdivide one’s portfolio are the most important issues. Therefore, this is where the Kelly Criterion steps in; or at least a derivative of it. This criterion helps bettors decide how much money to put in a bet when the odds are in favour. In this way, the funds placed in a bet grow vastly. The Kelly Criterion formula is: (BP – Q) / B where: B stands for the decimal odds -1 P stands for the probability of success Q stands for the probability of failure (i.e. 1-p) Explaining the Kelly Criterion using in a coin example The chances that a coin lands on heads are 52 %. Let’s imagine we are betting on whether a coin will land on the heads when tossed. For this, we place a bet at 2.00.Uusing the Kelly Criterion, the calculations are as follows: P= 0.52 Q = 1-0.52 = 0.48 B = 2-1 = 1. The equation: (0.52×1 – 0.48) / 1 = 0.04 Consequently, the Kelly Criterion gives a probability of 4 % that the coin will land on heads. A positive percentage means that the returns may be extraordinary. On the other hand, there are two other popular calculation methods, Fibonacci and Arbitrage; however, they are with higher risk. Why they do not provide explosive returns is that they need precise calculation of the outcome of a match.

The Pythagorean expectation in soccer betting

Analytics expert, Mark Taylor, pinpoints the advantages that the Pythagorean expectation may have if used in soccer betting and its potential profits when used on long-term markets. Mathematics can be widely used in soccer betting. Among other things, the Pythagoras’ theorem, which relates to the length of the three sides of a right-angled triangle, is a method which may bring huge profits in soccer betting. How does the Pythagorean expectation work? Primarily used for baseball betting, as an attempt to explain how likely is a team to win in terms of the points or runs they score and allow, the Pythagoras’ theorem served as a basis for the development of this new Pythagorean expectation. Thus, it can be used to predict more than one team’s actual winning percentage. The equation is as follows: Win % = (points or runs scored ^X) / (points or runs scored ^X + points or runs allowed ^X). This method, as previously mentioned, was used primarily in baseball, and later on, it included basketball and American football. Now, it is used with soccer as well. It takes into account scoring events, rather than wins, since scorings are more numerous and they best depict the team’s true strength and abilities. Scoring may come when the team is already very ahead as opposed to its opponent, or ‘surrender’ when they lead by a narrow margin. All of these events may boost or decrease their winning record changing their position in the league. Therefore, we can look at these events as something that is relative and changeable and it can be concluded that when a team performs better than their Pythagorean expectation, it may be considered just ‘lucky’ and vice versa. How to use Pythagorean expectation in soccer betting? The biggest challenge with the Pythagorean expectation is the possibility of a draw in a match unlike certain other sports where this is rarely the case. To these challenge, we can also add the goal scoring environment, as well the fact that sometime, the matches are to be played with less than 11 players due to red cards and all of these circumstances may, to high extent, distort the overall performance of a team. The deviation between Pythagorean expectation and actual outcomes  in this sport approaches a minimum at an exponent of 1.35. Since in soccer there will always be a huge amount of draws, the percentage of win often equals the percentage of possible points that a team may win in order to account for a side to be able to pick up a point in a drawn game, although not having scored a point in that match. Following the adaptation, a team may expect to end a season with 57 league points if they had a true win percentage of 50 %, in a 38-game season with three points for a win. In all the season there is a possibility of 114 points at stake. Other adaptations include, varying the exponent for the components of the denominator and numerator in the equation, as well as including a term that comprises the number of goals scored and allowed in the exponent to allow for variations in the goal-scoring environment. Consequently, draws usually happen for teams, both of which score and allow few goals. The opposite is true for teams which score and concede in greater numbers. The extent to which the choice of exponent reduces the RMS error between the expectation and reality of actual points is shown by the gradual decrease in RMSE. An exponent of two gives a RMSE of nearly 10 points per team for the 2014/15 Premier League, this is then reduced to six points if 1.35 is used and additionally to just over 4.4 points if goal environment is included in the exponent. Measuring points over a season The most significant use of the Pythagorean expectation in soccer is to separate the unsustainable element of luck, i.e. if the scoring records of one team corresponds to the number of points that the team scored in one season. Therefore, these statistics will be used to see how one team will perform in the subsequent period. Newcastle won 65 points in 2011/12 and this was nearly 10 more than it was expected by a typical Pythagorean expectation for a team that scored 56 goals and conceded 51. As a team which could only score five more goals than they concede, it was highly unlikely that the high number of goal victories and the few defeats will be repeated. Therefore, as expected, they achieved fewer points in 2012/13. Below is a chart which shows the equal splits if luck played the major role in the over or under performance of a team: Team Number of overperforming seasons Number of underperforming seasons Average points above or below expectation Arsenal 11 12 0.0 Aston Villa 10 13 0.3 Crystal Palace 3 3 0.0 Chelsea 13 10 0.4 Everton 7 16 -0.6 Leicester City 4 5 -1.8 Liverpool 5 18 -1.7 Manchester City 8 10 -1.1 Manchester United 17 6 3.1 Newcastle United 11 10 0.8 Norwich City 5 2 3.3 Southampton 4 12 -1.4 Stoke City 5 2 1.7 Sunderland 7 7 -0.5 Swansea City 1 3 -1.7 Tottenham Hotspur 14 9 1.2 Watford 0 2 -2.4 W.B.A 3 6 -0.6 West Ham United 12 7 1.1   Due to the constant factor in Manchester United, Sir Alex Ferguson, Manchester United may be noted as an exception to this because their final league points are over their scoring and conceding record in 17 of their 23 Premier League seasons. And statistically, it appears however that it is indeed their ability to score winning goals in the last minutes of a match. On the contrary, Liverpool was the underachiever in 18 of 23 seasons. In general, how one team subsequently performs in a league has to do more with keeping with their previous Pythagorean expectation than their previous actual point total. Valuable Pythagorean expectation trends In 1992/93 Norwich … Read more

Margins on soccer betting odds and how to calculate them

Long-term profits are very closely related to the margin applied on the soccer betting odds. The lower the margins are, the more they are in favour of the bettor and the larger they are, it gives bigger profit. Below is an explanation on how to calculate margins on 1X2 odds. The soccer betting odds’ margin is actually the price that a bookmaker is charging and the Margin Calculator below gives an idea of how this works and makes it easier for bettors to calculate the margin on a bet. Normally, we will take a match with three possibilities of ending as we need an example of 1X2. For that purpose, we will take the match between Hull City and Leicester City. This match was played at the KCOM Stadium. The opening price for Hull City was 3.41 and for Leicester City it was 2.39. The draw was set to 3.19 Outcome                                             Odds Hull City to win                                  3.41 Leicester City to win                          2.39 Draw                                                   3.19   There are two steps to calculate the margins for 1X2 odds: The odds for all three possible outcomes shall be converted into decimal probability; Solve the equation: Margin = (1/Home Odds) + (1/Away Odds) + (1/Draw Odds) – 1 First, we shall convert each 1X2 market into a decimal chance of winning. This is what actually is inside each set of the brackets in the equation above: (1/Odds). For Hull City, which is the home team, the decimal probability is (1/3.41) = 0.293 (this is actually a 29.3 % chance of winning). On the other hand, the draw shall be (1/3.19) which equals 0.313 and Leicester is (1/2.39) which equals 0.418. And second, we will substitute the numbers above as is shown in the formula in order to calculate the margin. Margin = (0.293) + (0.418) + (0.313) – 1. Thus, the margin is 0.024 or 2.4 %. Various types of bookmaker’s margins The odds above are just an example of how one bookmaker offers odds. There are other bookmakers who will offer slightly different odds, and normally the profit may differ drastically. For example, what another bookmaker could offer for the same match is 3.10 for Hull City, 2.10 for Leicester and 2.90 for draw. The margin in this example turns out to be 10 % which is huge and more than five times more expensive than in the previous example. Thus, if a bettor placed $100 bet on Hull City to win on the 1X2 market, he would have won $31 more if playing with the bookmaker whose margin was 2.4 %. The crucial thing in soccer betting is learning how to make more sophisticated decisions. Thus bettors should first educate themselves and then place bets. This includes checking other margins before making the final choice and placing the final bet. They should always look for bookmakers with risk management model which are in a position to offer better value than the rest.  

The Better Alternative to Soccer Betting Tips

The Better Alternative to Soccer Betting Tips Information is essential to live bettors, and this is even more important than wasting time looking for valuable soccer betting tips. By getting valuable and reliable information, bettors get a better perspective of the outcome of the game and the profit they get. Below is the reason why. Better Alternative to Soccer Betting Tips   Instead of googling and looking for better soccer betting tips online, smart bettors are searching for valuable information which can lead them to valuable rewards. The most important thing is to get to hold to information beforehand. This means that you get the best reap if you know the information before it goes known for the wider public. Or, at least before the information get to the bookmaker. Once bookmakers learn about the news, they adjust the odds and the rewards will not be as valuable as before. Thus, the hint is always to try and learn what others don’t know ahead of time. A successful bettor is the one who mostly manages to ‘beat the closing line’. A closing line may be defined as the last odds that are offered before the market closes. If a bettor constantly beats the closing line, then they are placing a bet which gives a great return to the odds that are finally offered. When a bettor receives information, it does not mean they know which side will win. However, this information will help them ‘beat the closing line’. Knowing how one team will perform in the match provides bettors with the best value odds. As far as information is concerned, bettors may acquire them from different sources. The most common ones include news feed in digital media, insider information which provides them with team news, the condition of players and whether there are some financial issues within the team, a problem which may happen rather often. Why betting tips are not to be trusted completely? No matter how valuable information soccer betting tips provide, tipsters usually have and give their own subjective opinion. Although very often tipsters gain a very good reputation during time based on their excellent record and knowledge, these information and predictions are very often a result of pure luck. On the other hand, valuable information from reliable sources is something which can be considered a fact, and it goes without saying that a fact is a fact. In general, many people may have access to certain insider information at any time; however, the principle of first come-first served gives bettors an edge.   Soccer betting tips vs. insider information The most common type of information bettors can use is team news before anyone else. But, other kinds of information which are more valuable are those which include news about other, not very famous teams and this information is more beneficial in soccer betting. For example, Weymouth F.C. in the Conference Premier in February 2009 was experiencing serious financial difficulties. Although Weymouth won against Torquay by 2-0, they lost 3-0 at home to Stevenage and had to play Rushden and Diamonds next, which were slight favourite. Weymouth first team was not paid its medical insurance and thus its youth team was fielded instead of the first team. Consequently, Weymouth lost by 9-0 and this changed the odds completely. Beware of rumours In the modern digital era, getting hold of information is quite easy, especially with the existence of social media. Twitter is one of the platforms which provides more information and hence everyone claims to have important information. However, how can one know if the information is true? The Internet provides plentiful of information, but unfortunately no one guarantees f their credibility and reliability. Statistically, false information is far more numerous than accurate information and using various information may only backfire if they happen to be false and without any foundation. Thus, bettors are always advised to use information from sources which can be checked, trusted, and which the bettor knows that are reliable. Only in this way betting can return in large amount of money.

The secret behind Handicap soccer betting

The article below deals with soccer handicap betting and how it works. It also provides a hint on how to become a pro in handicap betting. The main principle of sport is the competition between two opposing teams which have different qualities and strength when competing against one another. This principle is valid for soccer as well. The bigger this difference is in size, the greater the chances of winning of the favourite team are. This difference depends of various factors, but most significant is the historical dominance of the team, alongside with the financial support one team is provided. Moreover, the home-field advantage plays also a valuable role in the success rate of the team, as well as the availability of the team players and the injuries, past and present among them. All of the factors provided above form the indicators of the chances of success for each side in the match, and this is presented in the form of odds.   The principle of Handicap betting As previously mentioned, the teams in soccer already have difference in perceived abilities and strength. The more significant this difference is, the smaller the betting odds on the favourite team. This makes betting on that team less or not attractive at all since the returns the bettors can get are minimal and thus they have no or little incentives for doing so. What bettors usually do, when betting in soccer, is backing their strong favourite by using the old technique of 1X2 bet. However, there is a fresh new way in the betting world which provides more value to the money-the Handicap betting. Handicap betting is all about levelling the playing-field. This is done so as to balance the playing-field and in this fashion, each side is given a positive and a negative goal handicap accordingly. Thus, one of the two sides gets a greater number of goals for betting purposes, i.e. a ‘head start’. The odds are then calculated on the basis of that ‘head start’. Therefore, a Handicap is a numerical figure which is provided by the bookmaker in order to challenge the difference in abilities of the opponents, and thus creating more appealing odds. Asian handicap Handicap betting, which is also known as ‘Asian handicap’ betting, can be divided into three types: Level Handicap, Single Handicap and Split Handicap. When there is no difference in strength and abilities between the two teams, then no Handicap shall be assigned to either of the teams and they start with 0 goals. It is up to the bettor to identify the winning team and to place the bet on it. This is especially handy as it eliminates the draw and should the match end in a tie, then bets are refunded. With a zero result, neither of the teams is in any advantage. On the other hand, when there is a perceived difference between the teams’ abilities, Single Handicap is applied and this is done in the following manner: the presumed superior team is given goal handicap for the purposes of levelling the playing-field for betting purposes. For example, it is given -0.5 goal, -1 goal, -1.5 goals etc. Accordingly, when one bets on Team X with a handicap of -1 goal, this team must score and win the game by more than 1 goal. In this way, it will cover their handicap and the bettor will win the bet. If, on the other hand, it wins only by 1 goal, because of the applied handicap, the result will be a draw for betting purposes and the bet is refunded. Finally, the bettor loses the bet placed on Team X if Team Y draws or wins the match. Split Handicap The third possibility in Handicap betting is the Split Handicap. This applies when the difference in abilities is small. In this option, the bettor splits the stake over two handicaps. For example, if Team X is given 0 and -0.5 goals and the bettor places the bet on Team X, three scenarios are possible. If Team X loses the match, both bets are lost because they did not cover either handicap. In case of a draw, half of the stake which is at (0) will be refunded and the other half at (-0.5) will be lost. Finally, if Team X wins, the both bets win since both of the handicaps will be covered. CONCLUSION If you are following the old-fashioned 1X2 fixed odds betting, you are probably not very successful in getting worthy returns on your investments in soccer betting. The insight into the fresh form of Handicap betting provided in this article will surely provide you with increased chances of returning your investments. The odds in Handicap betting are more reliable and more beneficial because the whole concept provides more winning possibilities. The whole pattern of betting may seem more difficult; however, once you have it all figured out, it is quite simple.

How to determine who will win the Premier League?

The article below gives information about how to make use of goal differences in order to predict who will be the winner of the Premier League. This method, which is a balanced betting strategy, predicts the team points. As an example, the 2014/15 Premier League is taken. By rule, bettors should always tend to make as good predictions as possible, while at the same time be cautious about the events which may occur during the season which consists of 38 games. Therefore, predictive soccer methods should always be used carefully. An example of this is Liverpool in 2013/14. The ability of a team to score or concede goals, represented by a side’s goal difference, is the basis for calculating the League points. In some cases, league points out-perform the usual relationship between itself and the goal difference. An example of this is Newcastle in the season of 2011/12, when the goal difference of +5 of Newcastle related to 56 points over the season, and not the 65 they accrued. Therefore, when such cases occur, it is always better to look at the goal difference, instead of previous points, if we want to better predict the future league points. The goal difference as an indicator of the 2014/15 Premier League team points We can predict the goal difference in the easiest way if we take the numbers from the previous season and use the relationship between points and the goal difference from the past. In this way we are able to determine what the point total will be for 2014/15. By using this model, we would have come to the conclusion that Newcastle did not have big chances of scoring their 65 points again in the 2012/13 season. What they did manage to get is 41 points. Furthermore, if we want to increase our chances for profit, we should take a weighted average of the goal difference from more than one previous season. The disadvantage of this method is that it does not include promoted or recently promoted teams. However, the good thing is that it decreases the chances of their predictions to be distorted by an attacking or defensive unit which has an extremely good or bad period of play. if we run a regression in the Premier League data since its beginning, we can adequately predict the goal difference in the next season in the following way: the goal difference of the previous season is multiplied by 0.658, the season before that is multiplied by 0.208 and the one from three seasons ago by 0.098. The figures that we get are added together and in the end we subtract 1. In a similar fashion, if we want to determine the general relationship between goal difference over one season and points gained in that season, which are obtained also by regressing of past outcomes from Premier League seasons, we can use the following equation: League Points = (0.6455 * GD) + 52 The example of this is Liverpool’s goal difference in 2013/14 was +51, in 2012/13 it was +28 and in 2011/12 it was +7. Thus, its predicted GD in 2014/15 = (0.658*51) + (0.208*28) + (0.098*7) – 1 = +39. To project the points that Liverpool might expect to gain in 2014/15, we have to put out predicted goal difference for Liverpool into the second equation and this is shown below: (0.6455*39) + 52 = 77 points   Team Expected Points 2014/15 Expected GD 2014/15 Actual GD 2013/14 Actual GD 2012/13 Actual GD 2011/12 Man City 87 +55 +65 +32 +64 Liverpool 77 +39 +51 +28 +7 Chelsea 76 +37 +44 +36 +19 Man Utd 70 +27 +21 +43 +56 Arsenal 69 +26 +27 +35 +25 Everton 63 +17 +22 +15 +10 Tottenham 57 +8 +4 +20 +25 Swansea 50 -3 0 -4 -7 Stoke 46 -10 -7 -11 -17 WBA 44 -13 -16 -4 -7 Newcastle 42 -16 -16 -23 +5 Sunderland 41 -16 -19 -13 -1 Aston Villa 38 -22 -22 -22 -16 The teams in the table above spent at least the three pervious seasons in the Premier League. If we go back three seasons, reducing the effect of one lucky or unlucky season and using goal difference to determine likely points, we eliminate a season in which one team gains points from goals which are scored in incidental manner. But, it was already previously mentioned that every prediction is just an estimate and therefore it should always be treated with care. Furthermore, this method does not take into account other factors which are extremely important and influence the outcome of the game, such as: changes in the managerial structures, transfers or fixture congestion. Therefore, bettors should always see their models as potential outcomes and never strictly rely on them.

The goal glut ‘trap’ in soccer live betting

Outburst of goals in the opening 45 minutes of the match is of utmost importance in soccer live betting. This dynamics can either lead the bettors into making a rightful decision to place the bet on the winner, or it can mislead them into supporting short-priced favourites. The article below puts an accent on the significance of the remarkable and rare events of multiple goals scoring in the first half of the soccer game. The goal glut in the first half of a soccer match or multiple goals in a very short time window can mislead the live bettors and make them misjudge the further dynamics of the match and the performance of the teams. No matter how memorable or spectacular this outburst may seem, it should not trap bettors into false assumption of the end of the match. The Bradford City short-term ‘miracle’ A good example of this is the match between Chelsea and Bradford City. Although Bradford City team was falling behind Chelsea with a score of 2-0, the four goals scored by Bradford City may trap viewers and bettors into believing that Bradford City is superior to the Chelsea team. This is true especially because in all other occasions Chelsea would prove itself as the superior one. Having this in mind we can conclude that besides the spectacular and rare scoring of 4 goals in very short time intervals, this is a very poor indicator of the future development of a match. Analysis of goalscoring schemes The number of goals per game in the Premier League is proportionate to the strengths of the teams and it is set at the average 2.6 goals. However, this number varies. This means that two teams which are evenly strong are expected to score less than the league average total and a mismatch between them is expected to see rise towards 3 goals per game. Statistically, the greater the gap between the teams’ strength, the smaller the likelihood of a goalless match, and as the mismatch between the teams increases, the probability of 4 goals increases as well. Risk taking increases in the second half of the match and thus the second half sees about 55 % of the total goals scored in the course of one match. The average scores for a typical Premier League game are 1.19 for the first half and 1.45 for the second half. One or fewer first half goals is typical for nearly 70 % of the Premier League games, and over 10 % of the matches see a score of 3 or more goals in the first 45 minutes. When analyzing the games, when the first half of the match already ends up in three or more goals, there are usually 2 possible schemes. Namely, if the course of a game is better determined through short-term events that occurred recently, then one may expect this trend in scoring to continue throughout the second half. On the other hand, if we look back to the match between Chelsea and Bradford City, then one can come to a conclusion that extraordinary and surprising development of events may occur randomly in scoring patterns and the odds in the second half should be in line with our pre-game expectations, i.e. the dynamics of the match should be based on the relative strength of the two contestants. This supports the claim that the number of goals in the second period is very closely related to the pre-game estimates about the number of goals that will be scored in the second half. Monitoring a five season period in the Premier League, the findings are that if soccer teams scored three or more goals in the first 45 minutes of the game, then an average of 1.5 goals are to be expected in the second half, and furthermore, in the case of one or less than one goal in the opening half, the second half should see on average 1.52 goals altogether. This pattern suggests that extraordinary scoring in the first half leads to a minor, if any, increase in the second half. Greater scoring in the first period of, for example, three or more goals, leads to greater chances of losing the placed bet because usually those games where scoring was more modest in the first 45 minutes result in greater chances of win. CONCLUSION Taking everything into account, we can conclude that as much as goals can appear in gluts in a single match, this does not imply that this dynamic will continue steadily throughout the match or in any other future matches. This is especially the case with weaker teams playing against a stronger team, when the former has a sudden unexpected burst of goals and scores at a very rapid rate against the latter. The Chelsea and Bradford City example is a perfect one showing how the rising trend of scoring by the weaker Bradford City within the same match should never be mistaken as Chelsea being weak and losing its high place in the Premier League. Nor should it mean that Bradford City is suddenly, out of the blue, on its way towards conquering the Premier League. Short term trends, as shown by Bradford City, are always less predictive of what future holds regarding winners and losers in soccer matches than long term steady performance by already renowned teams. Thus, in soccer live betting one should always make sure to not rely on spectacular gluts of goals in the opening 45 minutes of the match and based on that, place bets on short-priced favourite teams.

The Poisson approach in live soccer betting

 It is a well known fact that the possibilities of a draw in a soccer match rise with every minute that a game remains goalless. In general, the greatest variables in live soccer betting are goals and thus they are the most significant factors that can alter live odds as well. Other game factors which may change the course of a match include red and yellow cards. What one bettor should be aware of when live betting are the current match odds. In order to determine whether the current game odds are accurate, one should be able to consider and calculate all the odds known by that point of time, taking into account the average number of goals each team will score at a particular time, and thus make a close evaluation of the outcome of the game. Poisson approach : Predict the score in soccer betting How to use the Poisson approach In order to better explain the Poisson calculation method, we can take the match between West Ham vs. Manchester City in the 9th week of the Premier League. According to the achievements of the both teams, over a longer period of time, West Ham was rated far below the champions of the year before that, Manchester City, and thus, West Ham was expected to score 0.85 goals against Manchester City, with expectation of 1.90 goals. According to Poisson approach calculations, City would be expected to win 62 % of such games, as opposed to West Ham with 15 % probability of winning and 23 % chance of ending in a draw. These were also the odds available prior to the start of the match. Statistically speaking, goal scoring rises as the match progresses, due to the fatigue of the players and risk taking) and live bettors should be aware of these facts. Furthermore, 45 % of goals shall be scored before the initial period is over, and the remaining 55 % after the half time.   The equation, derived from the Premier League scoring data, for the calculation of the goal expectations of one side at a particular point in the match, is as follows:   Remaining Goal Expectation = Initial Expectation * Proportion of Time Remaining ^ 0.85   If we take a team, for example, which is initially expected to score 1 goal for the entire game, in the beginning of the second half, the average goal expectancy for the remaining time shall be calculated by the equation below: 1*(0.5^0.85) = 0.55 Thus, the initial goal expectation still remains in the second half, after the interval. What is very useful for live bettors here, is that this equation can be used at any time of the match to calculate the chances for remaining goals While no goal was scored in the first 21 minutes, before West Ham took the lead with the first goal and 78 % of the game was yet to be played, the goal expectations for the both teams had fallen from initial 0.85 and 1.9 to 0.69 and 1.54 goals respectively. If we calculate all of this with the Poisson method, we can come up with figures and probabilities which can tell us whether the match will end in a home win, away win or draw. How a goal alters the winning probability in a match If a soccer match remains goalless for 21 minutes, then the probability of a draw shall rise from 0.23 to 0.26. In this fashion, in the example of West Ham vs. City, this event decreased City’s chance of winning from 0.62 to 0.58, but West Ham chances remained similar at 0.16. However, after the first goal by West Ham, the figures changed drastically. Namely, with 21 minutes of the match having elapsed, and with a score of 1-0, after applying decayed initial goal expectations for each side, West Ham gained a 42 % chance of victory. Just as a reminder, the chances of West Ham to win this match, prior to that first goal, were set to 16 %. This is just an illustration of how big an impact a goal may have on a game. Therefore, in each live match and live betting, the possible scenarios regarding the outcome, are always affected by the initial strength of each team, the time remaining and the current score, alongside other factors, such as red cards. On the contrary, the betting data from the day of the match shows that only 35 % chance of winning was predicted for them. The Poisson method can also be used to calculate the likelihood of one team gaining one or three points. Namely, Manchester City, losing by 2-0 against West Ham, has to win the remaining part of the match by scoring two goals to gain a point, or by scoring three or more goals to gain all three points. Although City scored one goal in the 77th minute of the match, the remaining time was still too short and West Ham continued to be the leading team with about 70 % chance of winning immediately after the score by City.   CONCLUSION Generally speaking, a home team will always win in about 70 % of the matches, if they score the opening goal in the first 21 minutes. The Poisson approach predicted 42 % winning chance for West Ham at that point, taking into account the abilities of the respective teams. Hence, the bettors can take great advantages of the Poisson approach since they can calculate the odds during the game, taking into account the field events. They are able to make their own judgments of the outcome in the end of the match, noting when a goal is scored and identifying any opportunities which may be profitable for them in the form of returns.