Soccer Betting Resources

Expected goals in soccer – how many to expect actually?

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There are numerous question that bother bettors when they are about to place a bet. Some of the many and perhaps, the most important ones, are how to determine the number of goals that are expected per match and how often one shot become a goal. Maybe one of the most important questions for bettors is to find out how they can use past data to predict the expected goals per a match. Thus, what bettors need in order to tackle these issues and to place a valuable bet is information and a model. Continue reading to find out how to use a model for expected goals to predict the score in a soccer match. It is a well known fact that goals in soccer are pretty rare occurrences. The average number of goals per game over the last five seasons in the Premier League is only 2.73 goals. The book The Numbers Game holds the belief that up to 50 % of any match result can be down to luck, the bounce of the ball or the decision of the referee. Therefore, in order to make more precise predictions, one should always take into account a bigger sample of data. Therefore, it is better to use the 8.49 shots on target, or maybe the 25.7 total shots, instead of the average 2.73 goals per game in the 2015/16 Premier League season. The likelihood a shot to become a goal depends on various factors and varies to a great degree. Therefore, we use the expected goals (xG) models to calculate the probability. For example, in England’s top division, in 9.7 % of the shots, a goal is scored. This number is valid for the last five seasons. However, if we break down those shots into different categories, only then will we see the variation of the conversion rate. When historical data kick in, we are able to calculate how likely it is for a single shot to be converted into a goal. We do this by calculating as many or as few factors in. whatever we like. For example, some of the most thorough models make difference whether the goal was scored with foot or head, what the situation was when the goal was scored, etc. This involves indeed very complex data gathering and analysis skills. However, much simpler expected goals system exists which allow the bettors to gather valuable insights into the matter.  What is the value of different types of shots? According to Opta, there are high-quality opportunities which are called ‘high chances’. These are situations where a shot is expected to be converted into a goal (usually when there is one-on-one occasion or from very close range). The expected goal value to penalties is set to be 0.783. This number is derived from the data where out of the 443 penalty shots in the Premier League between 2011/12 and 2015/16, 347 were goals. In a period of past five seasons in the English top flight, there were a total of 6.213 big chances, in which 2.579 were scored. Penalties were also included in these numbers. Therefore, if we deduct the penalties, non-penalty big chances have been converted at a reate of 38.7 %, or expressed as an xG value – 0.387. The last five years saw 22.822 non-big chances in the box with 1.587 scored, which gives an xG of 0.070. Between August 2011 and May 2016 in the Premier League, there were 22.318 shots from outside the box. 809 of them were scored, giving an average of 3.6 % chance of shots to be converted into a goal. Thus, the xG for shots from outside the box is set to 0.036. Free-kick shots are converted at a rate of about 5-6 %, and this provides for a slight variation within this, but for simple systems, 3.6 % is enough. How to determinate expected goals per team If we look at the matches of this season, until 12th March 2017, out of 211 matches from the Premier League which were won (excluding own goals), the team that hat the most shots won in 151 of them (71.6 %) and the team with the highest xG score, won in 170 matches (80.6 % of the time). If we use the Poisson method and the xG data from the 2016/17 season, we can make the predictions as follows in the table below. This figures are for the matches in Premier League week 29.   According to the table, one correct score did turn out to be correct, as well as four other result choices (home win, draw or away win). If we use the odds given by the system’s calculations, it is clear that the favourite won the bet in six out of ten matches. What are the imperfections of the xG predictive model? The factors that influence the final outcome of a soccer match, like injuries, change of manager or fatigue of the team, are the same factors that play a great deal in whichever system a bettor uses for calculating the odds. Therefore, bettors should always be aware of the limitations of any model. These systems are all based on averages and as about half of the matches see less than 2.5 goals, it may be expected that a system of this kind will not be able to predict an especially high scoring game. However as already noted that all shots on average are worth 0.097 goals, a simple system of this kind indicate that the shots made by Manchester City are worth 0.113 and those by Hull are only worth 0.083. Everything taken into account, bettors should always use statistical data for expected goals in connection with the Poisson distribution. In that way, one will be able to accurately quantify the team’s defence and attack.

Is the weather an important factor in a soccer match?

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In soccer betting, every bettor should be aware of numerous factors which may influence the end result. Needless to say, a change to the conditions on the football pitch may of course change the outcome of the game. But, how weather conditions influence the end result in a soccer match and how this affects your bet? Every bettor will agree that before placing the bet, one should always see how their favourite team stands in comparison to their opponents. This has always been a starting point in betting. However, there are also other factors which are important for the final result. Analysis of certain factors, like a new stadium, a congested fixture period and the weather conditions is as important before placing a bet, as are the use of methods for calculating the odds, like the Brier Score method or the Poisson distribution. How does weather influence betting in soccer? The influence the weather can have on a soccer match is hard to express in numbers. However, it can greatly influence the result. Certain weather condition can be beneficial to some teams and taken all together, they can influence the number of goals scored in one match. For example, Jose Mourinho knew how light rain would benefit Barcelona when he was the manager of Real Madrid. Having this in mind, he chose not to water the pitch at Santiago Bernabeu when Barcelona played against Real Madrid. Why? Light rain goes in favour of more passing teams because when the rain sits on the surface, the ball travels faster. On the other hand, too much rain makes it very hard for passing teams to estimate the time of a pass as a pitch may get saturated with water or may become ‘waterlogged’. This makes more difficult for the ball to pass through. Although this rarely happens in top divisions, since modern technology of drainage makes it harder for a pitch to get waterlogged, it is still a regular occurrence in the lower leagues. Something similar happens with heavy winds, especially, again, with passing teams. Teams that play especially long balls have problems with strong winds because when the ball is in the air for a longer time, the wind may alter its trajectory. Does hot weather produce more goals? It is a widespread belief that the hotter the weather, the bigger number of goals per match. This is mostly connected with the believe that hot weather makes the defenders more fatigue. However, the same should be true for the attackers as well. Below is the analysis of the Premier League data from three seasons in which we can see what numbers say for the matches played in hot months three months with the highest average temperature) vs. in cold and wet months (three months with the lowest average temperature and most rain). Average goals per game 2013/14 – 2015/16 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Average Hot months 2.43 2.75 2.89 2.69 Cold and wet months 2.86 2.41 2.58 2.62 Both teams to score 2013/14 – 2015-16 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Average Hot months 43.37% 48.00% 59.17% 50.18% Cold and wet months 47.52% 48.55% 50.82% 48.96% The numbers do not confirm the belief that more goals are scored during the hot month, compared to the cold and wet months. However, we should keep in mind that the hot months are always at the beginning and in the end of the season and towards the end of the season, most of the teams do not have anything to play for. Do weather conditions change the odds? It has been accepted that when a team travels long distances to play in a climate they are not accustomed to, this can have some effect on the team’s performance. Examples of this can be seen within the Champions League and Europe League. The examples of Manchester United playing against Zorya Luhansk and FC Rostov show how a change in weather or playing conditions influence the odds for a travelling team. In this cases, bookmakers have already taken into account Manchester United’s trips to Ukraine and Russia, where they had to play in freezing cold conditions. However, not more than 24 hours before the start of the game, information came about the frozen pitch in the match against Zorya and deteriorated surface in the match against Rostov. The table below shows a breakdown of the odds movement for Manchester United’s games against Zorya Luhanska and FC Rostov: Opening odds (implied probability) Odds 24 hours before KO (implied probability) Closing odds (implied probability) Zorya Luhansk 10.92 (9.2%) 11.18 (8.9%) 9.83 (10.2%) Draw 5.31 (18.8%) 4.95 (20.2%) 4.89 (20.4 %) Manchester United 1.33 (75.2%) 1.38 (72.5%) 1.35 (74.1%)   Opening odds (implied probability) Odds 24 hours before KO (implied probability) Closing odds (implied probability) FC Rostov 5.33 (18.8%) 4.58 (21.8%) 5.26 (19%) Draw 3.65 (27.4%) 3.42 (29.2%) 3.52 (28.4 %) Manchester United 1.78 (56.2%) 1.94 (51.1%) 1.81 (55.2%) The numbers in this case show indeed some minor movements in the odds. However, there are no major indicators that show that bookmakers would change the odds drastically. Playing in international tournaments and acclimatisation International tournaments force teams to adapt to new climates in a short period of time. Such an example is the World Cup, especially the one which will be held in Qatar in 2022. In this case, we are talking about major differences in temperatures. Although the World Cup will be held in winter, temperatures are still expected to rise to 30 degrees C. For the teams which come from alike climate, such as those from Africa, Asia and South America, this will be some sort of advantage over the teams which usually play and are accustomed to cooler temperatures. Therefore, this World Cup will influence the winner odds, as well as individual games. Taken everything into account, we can conclude that weather conditions surely influence soccer betting, no matter how slightly significant this influence may be. Of course, there are more important factors to be considered when placing a … Read more

How to know when a draw happens

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BTTS SOCCER TIPS

The extremely high chance for a soccer match to end up in a draw, one must be able to predict the matches in which a draw is highly likely to occur. Belo you may read on to find out if this draws are easy to predict and how to do it. Between the years 2006 and 2016, about 26 % of the Premier League matches ended up in a draw, where the most common result was 1-1. This result was in about 42 % of all the draws, 32 % of the matches were goalless and the score of 2-2 in 22 %. With the draws accounting for around a quarter of the outcomes in a Premier League game in one season, we can safely say that they are extremely important part of the betting industry. Roughly calculated, draws can occur when two teams of relatively equal abilities play against each other, but after taking into consideration the venue of the match. For example, if two teams play against each other, whereas the host team is a title holder and the other is a struggling team, the probability of a draw is about 14 %. On the other hand, if the teams are roughly equal, this percentage would be about 30 % for a draw. If we adjust the Poisson approach, as adjustment is needs since this approach underestimates the likelihood of a draw in football, the methodology is pretty straightforward. Equation used to calculate the chance of a draw in the Premier League If we take one game from the Premier League between equal teams, where the expectation of goals is an average of 2.5 goals, we can conclude that each side will score an average of 1.25 goals per game. According to the Poisson method, both of the sides have 29 % chance to fail to score. Thus, if we take the unadjusted probability that the game ends in a 0-0 draw can be calculated if we multiply these two probabilities together. 0.29 * 0.29 = 0.08 What is likely to occur, with 13 % chance, if we keep with the actual data from the Premier League, is a draw of 1-1. If we take into consideration all possible draws, we can add together the probabilities for a 0-0, 1-1, 2-2 etc., and get the overall draw chance for a typical Premier League game in which two relatively equal sides play against each other. Therefore, a draw is predicted to have occurred in about 27 % of the time. Many times, in predicting draws between equally strong teams, one aspect is neglected. And this aspect is the scoring profiles of each side. This means that, if we predict fewer total goals in one match, this leads to the conclusion that each of those teams will also have lower individual scores. This expressed in numbers means that, in a match between two equal sides, where the total expected goals is just 2.2, the probability that a side will not score any goal increases from 0.29 in the previous case to over 0.33. Therefore, there is an increase in the probability that a game will end in 0-0, and this increase is from 0.08 previously to 0.1 and the unadjusted draw probability rises to over 0.29. In conclusion, if we go and select teams whose match is more likely to end in a draw, will lead us to teams which are similar and which are far more better in defending their goals, than in attacking the opposition goals. Predicting the right draws Bettors should always be aware that the very fact that they may be able to identify which game will end in a draw, does not mean that this probability has not been calculated appropriately in the price available for that bet. Also, no matter how strong one team was even over a season, the same team may become less extreme in future. One side may be very good in draws and this may be due to it always playing in low scoring games. However, this should not be taken as a permanent feature and taken for granted about the draw outcomes in the future. Statistically, the teams who played the most matches that ended up in a draw, over one season in the period between 2006-2016, were all mid-table teams, such as Stoke, WBA and Aston Villa. They averaged almost 16 draws per season, while the league average in the same period was just below 10 draws. However, the next season was a different story for these mid-table teams and this number of 16 draws dropped to just over 10. Among the successful sides, such as Manchester City and United, Tottenham and Chelsea, something similar happened. Namely, they avoid a draw result as a final outcome; however, from their usually practice of drawing fewer than 5 games per season, the following season they averaged eight draws between themselves, which is close to the league average of 10 draws. The most significant thing to always have in the mind when betting on draws is the factors which contribute to these outcomes. Among other factors, one should always have in mind the occasions where a draw result is mutually beneficial for the both teams.  

Myths and facts in soccer betting

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Myths and facts in soccer betting In soccer betting, not every received knowledge can be taken for granted. In fact, much of the knowledge a bettor receives may be considered as unreliable and should be treated with caution. However, some common beliefs that are held among soccer bettors are so much considered to be true, that everyone accepts them as such. Below are several common myths that have been debunked. Setting the odds in soccer betting is crucial for great profit. Bookmakers set the odds according to two criteria: what they consider as a likely outcome and how much money the bettors are putting on the markets. So, the question that may arise is: when do profit opportunities arise? The answer to this question is: when bettors ignore statistics and place bets only on the basis on commonly held misconceptions. Tired after playing? Some of the most common sayings is that if a club had a match in the Champions League before, they would be certainly tired. However, placing a bet against them is not a reliable option. The reason why lies in the fact that even if the match was played away and not at home, any European city is a maximum of three hours away and the time spend traveling does not mean greater physical exhaustion for the players. If we add the most advanced training facilities and the personnel which provide the best fitness and wellbeing services to the players, there is no reason for us to believe that players will not be fit for the next game. Rate of winning after UCL games  Myths and facts in soccer betting Below is data how three top Premier League teams performed after European games in the period of the past six years. The study was conducted by BBC. Arsenal has improved their performance in the League after a European fixture in three seasons and deteriorated in the rest three. But, the difference was small. On the other hand, Chelsea has been constantly underperforming after European Matches in the final two seasons, while Mourinho was the manager. After 2011/2012, Manchester City has not made any significant progress in the Champions League. The necessity to win # Myths and facts in soccer betting The belief that a team needs to win a match, if they want to be part of the next year’s UEFA tournament, is again one of the myths that more often than not proves to be unreliable and a dangerous territory. Kevin Pullein, the author of the book The Definitive Guide to betting on Sport (2004), treats this matter on whether a team improves its performance just because it ‘needs to win’. There are two presumptions regarding this matter. The first one is that a team which must win, will give its best efforts to do so. But, on the contrary, this means that it was not giving it’s best earlier, which of course may not be always the case. The second presumption is the belief that because of the pressure to win, players will perform better, which is hardly the case because pressure on players usually worsens the performance. Pullein came to the findings that after 10 seasons of the English Championship and League One, those teams which are trying to promote performed worse in May, than in any other month of the year. How to bet in the end of the season? Bookmakers make profit when bettors ignore statistics. They are aware of the common myths bettors believe in and use this opportunity to price up teams who desperately need to win in order to mislead bettors to put great deal of money on a certain bet. Thus, bettors should always keep in mind that out of all the teams which were studied in the BBC analysis, 60 % did the same or even better after European games. Therefore, knowing this, they should always avoid clichés which very rarely have any statistical basis and place their bets on post-European matches differently.  

The Basics about Corner Betting in Soccer

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The opportunity for exploiting discrepancies in the odds lies in moving away from the standard 1X2 and Handicap markets. Below you may read to discover how to benefit from the alternative markets, such as betting on corners. If one knows more than the bookmaker, this means making money and to find a suitable market in betting means that one may be able to reap great profits from betting. Betting on corners The recent years see the rise of betting on corners. Why some bettors use this betting lies in several reasons: lack of knowledge on the side of t he bookmaker, bookmaker’s lack of attention to minor details, the fluctuation of odds in live corners, etc. This type of betting is very different to the most common 1X2 or Handicap betting. Draws and underdog victories make it easier to come by in soccer than in other sports.  In terms of pre-game expectations, the corner counts by each team are more reliable when compared to the underdog, which may give a 1-0 win or hold on for 0-0 draw. Corners betting in soccer will probably become more attractive in time after examining the factors that could influence the number of corners per game and the statistics of past games. How do bettors bet on corners Three different markets for corners betting – Totals, Handicap and Money Line in the major soccer leagues in Europe and the Champions League. Totals corner betting: a figure is set by the bookmaker for the combined number of corners which is expected, where bettors can predict the amount of corners by the end of the game and choose whether they think the number will be over or under the given amount. Handicap corners betting: the same format as Handicap betting on the NFL, in basketball or in any other sport. One side is given the advantage (+ figure) and the other side a disadvantage (- figure). As is the principle in Handicap betting, this is done with the aim to counter a perceived bias. For instance, if Sunderland plays against Manchester City, Sunderland will be given the advantage + 3 corners, and City the disadvantage – 3 corners. If a bettor places a bet on City, this means that it has to win 4 more corners than Sunderland for the bet to win, and this would give them +1 corners after the handicap. If the bet is placed on Sunderland, then they have to win more, the same or anything up to two or fewer corners than Manchester City. Money Line corners: the winning bet is the bet placed on whoever wins the most corners within the 90 minutes of the game, or when betting in-play, for the time left). This method is a pretty straight forward one. Analysis of corner betting It is not a general rule that after one corner, more will follow. However, usually this happens to be the case. After one corner, more often than not, a second or a third one, or even more, will come.  Thus, it is widely accepted that corners do come in clusters. The main rule when betting in corners is to know how to do it. The second one is to know which teams are more likely to win corners and which ones a more susceptible to concede them. But how will a bettor know which team is more likely to win a corner? To answer this question, one has to analyze the shots. A lot of shots indicate that the team is offensively dominant and those shots will often be deflected or saved and thus, resulting in a corner. Below is a table of the start of 2012/13 season with five teams that, on average, had the most shots per game in the Premier League: Now let’s compare it to the table with the top five teams that had the most corners per game in the same period: The connection between the statistics in the two tables is evident. If we look at it from the opposite perspective, i.e. from the perspective of the teams which are most likely to concede corners in a game, we can use a similar approach. The statistics of the shots against and blocks per game highlight teams that are under more pressure and most likely to concede corners. In the table below we can see the teams who have faced, on average, the most shots per game in the Premier League since the start of 2012/13 season:   Consequently, those teams which faced the most shots, have also faced the most blocks since 2012/13:   Finally, a table of the teams which have averaged the highest opposition corners per game. When one looks at this table, they can see how valuable the previous statistics can be for a bettor who likes to bet on corners: Tactics is as important as statistics in corner betting The most important thing to be taken into consideration when betting on corners is to have the whole picture in front of you. This means that, as much as statistics is important, the tactics, weaknesses and strengths of a team are of crucial importance and they all have their impact on the number of corners won or conceded in a game. While it is true that more shots lead to more corners, teams like Manchester City, Tottenham and Liverpool are among the top teams who average the highest numbers of corners per game and this is because they use more width in their play or hit more crosses. All of this makes it more likely for the ball to be deflected or cleared away for a corner. According to the Premier League sample above, fewer than 3 % of corners were converted into a goal since the start of 2012/13. This only shows that corner betting is not simple and it is not very easy to predict which team scores the most goals in the end, because the team which wins the most corners … Read more

Can a 2-1 result lead to a complete overturn of the final outcome?

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If you go to a soccer forum, you will probably find lots of speculations which are by far unsupported and backed by actual and reliable data about the possibilities of occurring of a certain event. Below you may read to find out how likely is a score of 2-1 to be overturned and a comeback to appear in a single Premier League season. There are three terms which appear to be significant when we look at the cognitive bias which more often than not impairs our judgment in the world of soccer. They are recency or availability bias, where recent past event interfere with our decisions (when one team scores more than three goals). This past event appears in our mind to be more likely than it really is. The other term is confirmation bias. In this case we are looking for isolated examples to support something that we want to believe is real. For example, when we want a team, who got a red card, to win, although they lack one player. Thus, it is always important for bettors to rely on already checked data before making an intuitive decision, which often proves to be wrong. For example, the score of 2-1 is often thought to be the most likely score to be overturned. But, in this article we will see how statistics support this belief. Are comebacks actually a real thing? In the analysis of a single Premier League season, out of 380 matches, 132 led with 2-1 at one point of the match. In 74 of those occasions, that was the leading team, and 58 times, it was the visitor. In 89 times, a third goal that was scored broke the score of 1-1 and in 43 matches the side that was already leading with 2-0 scored the third goal. The fastest time when a score of 2-1 was reached was 16 minutes. However, in average, a score of 2-0 was scored in a period of 60 minutes. In 132 matches, the average abilities of the side were similar. The method that was usually used to calculate the outcome of a game or the remainder of a match was the Poisson distribution. The assessment that is based on goals is always made regarding the relative abilities of the teams. Then, if we want to assess the probabilities of subsequent results, we can estimate the likelihood of each team scoring or conceding a specific number of goals. Testing the score of 2-1 According to the Poisson model, we can predict that the leading side wins in 75 % of the time, draws 20 % and only in 5 % of the occasions an overturn happens and the other team wins the game. Here we allow for the slight preponderance of home teams which lead 2-1 after an hours play. In the analysis of the Premier League sample, 132 matches reached 2-1. 101 (76 %) of the leaders won the match in the end, 25 (19 %) drew and only 6 (5 %) lost the game. The percentages in the analysis are so to say a perfect match to the percentages from the model. The above analysis and examples only show that although tempting, a 2-1 score is not very easy to be overturned and in most cases, the leading side will be eventually the winning side in the end.

The Significance of the First Six Games in a Season in Soccer

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Does is make a difference when a goal is scored in a season in soccer? Do the first six games in a season weigh more than the other goals and does it matter when the three points are scored? Below you may find the answers to these questions. As we know, every game in soccer gets a maximum of three points if won. And yes, it matters whether these points are gained in one win or in another one. If we analyze the teams and how they play in the first six games of the season, we can come to a conclusion whether this affects their overall position in the league and whether their first six games play any role in how they place themselves in a season. Why do the six games matter? If we take the Premier League as an example, we can see that the list is randomly complied and it is broken down in five sets. Therefore, each team will play three home games in the first six games and also three away games. The first six games are very important because from them we can see how the prospects are for one team. The beginning of a season usually offers new players, new managers and a new venue to play in and all of this influences on the performance of one team. Statistics The past three Premier League seasons show average points per game (PPG) that each team won and the table after six games. At the end of the season this is compared to the teams’ PPG (38 games) and the final league table. Although it is true that those teams which perform extraordinarily in the first six games, continue to be in the top position throughout the whole season, sometimes there are exertions to this rule and expectation. Some of them continue to be not even in the mean positions, but also worse than that. An example of this is Aston Villa, which dropped from 6th to 17th in 2014/15. However, only two times has the winner of the Premier League been outside of the top four after six games since 38 game season was introduced in 1995/96 – (Manchester United moved from 10th to 1st in 2002/03 and Manchester City won the league although they were 7th after six games in 2013/140. Similarly to this fashion, there are teams which did not win a lot of points in the first six games, during in the remaining time of the season, they tend have many difficulties. However, an exception to this is Southampton, which rose from 16th after six games to 6th after 38 in 2015/16. Can this data be beneficial for bettors? This data can be used by bettors and provide them with some benefits, but only if used while taking into accounts other factors during, let’s say a Premier League season. Other factors which bettors can take into consideration is the assessment if a team is still valuable after a good or bad start and thus, their chances of winning the league can be analyzed. On the other hand, this data can also be used to measure performance and it can be a valuable source for predicting how individual matches will end. This, together with other betting models, like Poisson distribution and an expected goals model will also help bettors bet more strategically.    

How soccer betting developed?

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Bookmakers have always been the ones who influenced soccer betting to greatest extent. As bettors always hoped for making great profits by investing little, the bookmakers have always tried to control what bettors can bet on. Below you may find more about to what extent the bookmakers have control over soccer betting. How do bookmakers make bettors to place a bet? For many bettors, there is a huge difference between soccer betting and the lottery, simply in the fact that soccer bettors have more control on the outcome of the bet they place and in lottery one may say that the outcome is simply a matter of luck. However, depending on the place where bettors place the bet, this may not be entirely true. Nowadays, that bookmakers do is providing a lucky dip option and ‘curating’ bets, which means that they give the bettors the option to pick the odds they want and then, they ‘randomly’ pick the selections for them; or, they just give them a selection of already made bets so that the bettors can chose from them. Therefore, the bookmakers have a considerably high influence on what bettors can place a bet on. That is, by offering special offers or launching a very well made marketing campaigns to highlight an event, bookmakers have more control over what bettors put their money on and thus, making the chances of getting a return even smaller than they really are. How did it all start? The concept of betting was originally made for fun. Littlewoods in 1923 created a pools system in the UK where the fans were given a coupon outside of stadiums and asked to note in it which team they thought would win the match. After some time, the coupons started appearing in a newspaper, filled in and then taken submitted by post or given to an agent who collected them. Littlewoods suggested which games to be picked or limited the number of choices. However, in any case, one winner a week was always guaranteed by using a points scoring system. In France, a similar system was developed, called ‘pari-mutuel’ and it was used for horse racing. Similar products, like Tote (UK) and TAB (Australia) were later based on this system. The principle in these systems is pooling together all bets or entries and then paying out on a dividends basis, where the one who owned the pool took their cut. This system gives less valuable returns than the likelihood of the chosen outcomes and it functions more like the bookmaker odds. Michael Elliott is one of the most famous winner from the pools and he won £3,001,511 for his £2 stake when he predicted eight 2-2 draws in 2010. Until opening of betting shops, the pools were one of the most popular forms of betting. After that, bettors were able to bet in a more convenient way. Many things changed since, regarding the manners of betting; however, what stayed the same was ‘curating bets’. When did betting shops appear? Betting shops started appearing very fast in the period from 1960’s until 1990’s. Although their primary focus was horse racing, greyhound racing and other sports, the interest in soccer betting was increasing. Coupons with curated odds made by bookmakers, with numerous combinations of outcomes in matches, were devised. Singles were only available on live games. But this put bettors in a great disadvantage because bookmakers could create a coupon with games which were difficult to predict and then, they made these difficult selections more appealing by combining them into one bet with attractive high odds. Just for the record, one of these coupons offered odds of 26.00 for correctly predicting three draws. The evolution of technology The traditional curate coupons have moved online as technology developed and people started going to betting shops less. Although these types of coupons are still popular the most, nowadays, bettors may also chose BTTS coupons (both teams to score). Nowadays bookmakers still have their ways in disadvantaging bettors, although they do it more discreetly now. For example, bettors are offered to chose four matches where both teams will score at odds of 4.50, six matches at 11.00 or eight matches at 25.00. Here, bettors focus on the high return for low outlay, but since we have innate difficulty in making smart statistical decisions, bettors do not take into consideration the likelihood and whether the odds which are offered on this ticket can be trusted regarding the probability of the teams to score. Usually, the odds that bookmakers will offer are around 1.67 for both teams to score in a match and 2.10 for both teams not to score. So not only do bettors have to find an edge and beat the bookmaker’s 7.6 % margin, they have to do it four, six or eight times over, with the margin rising proportionately. Should coupon betting be avoided? Smart bettors should always know that there is always a reason why bookmakers highlight an offer. It always has something to do with making an already difficult bet even more difficult. Of course, everyone is after a big profit. But one should always keep in mind not to let bookmakers influence their selections in any way. Although advertising campaigns about a certain event, as well as offering an easy to use form of betting brings hope of great returns and provides a great recreational value, serious bettors should always be aware of the reason why that specific event is offered at such spectacular terms.   

Betting Psychology

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In betting world there is a term called crash course in betting psychology. This will be explained more in detail bellow in the text. But, the reasons for such a term are numerous aspects a person faces when trying to make money by betting in sports. There is a whole study developed in this area, which is a clear indication of how your mindset can affect your profit from betting. Furthermore, what are the usual mistakes one does while betting and how they can avoid making them, and maybe the most important aspect, who is in control of the whole betting process – do you control your actions or is it vice versa? There is a thing called the rational choice theory which is in a way the basis of our whole existence as human beings, mentally superior to all the other animals. This is all because of our innate ability to make rational choices. Every time we think how to get the most out of a situation, while at the same time invest as less as possible. While this theory makes perfect sense on paper, in practice things work a little bit differently.   Let’s test the rational choice theory Preference may be defined as the ordering of the alternatives based on their relative utility, i.e. satisfaction derived or reward. If Cathy, an adult person, prefers banana to peaches and peaches to apples, it is sure to say that when given to choose from these three fruits, she will go for banana. Let’s imagine that Cathy is attending a party where, as a dessert, fruit is offered. On one side there are banana slices, and on the other side, there are apples cut in halves. Logically, Cathy goes for the bananas, but at the same time two other kids run to get the bananas. Cathy then divides the banana slices in two portions and teaches the kids the lesson about sharing, before settling for the apples. According to psychology, the satisfaction Cathy would get from making two kids happy is greater than the satisfaction she would get from eating the banana and thus, she makes and irrational choice to take the apples. In betting terms, this means that it is an irrational assumption if you blindly believe that just because you made a choice to bet for money, you will also act accordingly. Now, here’s another situation and see what Cathy would choose in a different context.  Let’s imagine she is an over-spender and one week before pay day she is already in overdraft and angry about her spending habits. On her way to the park, she meets a friend named Harry who is eating cinnamon topped apples and offers to share it with her. She would love to join him in this treat; however, she would prefer the bananas and vanilla ice-cream, topped with chocolate syrup. Unfortunately, this treat of her choice will cost her money she does not have at the moment and settles for the apples with cinnamon in the end. Would you bet that she would settle for the free apples one day after the pay day? The hint is that in order to control your actions in betting, you should always place bets based on their Expected Value, and not based on your feelings and assumptions because you set yourself to make money in sports betting. Expected Value is a predicted value of a variable, calculated as the sum of all possible values each multiplied by the probability of its occurrence. In betting, expected value (EV) is the measure of what a bettor can expect to win or lose per bet placed on the same odds time and time again. And the story with Cathy moves forward. Pay-day has come and she is determined not to go into negative in her account anymore and gain control over her spending habits. Therefore, she reads a book on how to manage this. She calculates the maximum allowance of her daily budget and makes a grocery list to buy in the supermarket. After completing her shop, it turns out she has another $2 dollars to spend and to make a choice between bananas, which is $2.50, peaches, which is $2 and apples, which is $2. As she determined to control her feelings, she chooses peaches and is satisfied about her ability to stay disciplined. How big a role does irrationality play in betting? The golden rule is that just because you said you want something, it doesn’t mean you will act accordingly. The choices are always affected by context, alternatives, finances, timing, goals and ambition. Thus, it is irrationally to think that just because you want to make money from betting, you will act accordingly. This brings us to the very aspect of rationality, and the second golden rule is that rationality may be considered as a superpower since it is so rare. This can be explained with betting on a team to score Over 2.5 goals just because in the last match they easily scored 4 goals against a strong team and now they are playing against a weaker team. The logic behind this assumption is wrong and biased. There is another term that is present in this betting psychology: gambler’s fallacy. Gambler’s fallacy happens when a bettor increases his stake after a series of losses because he thinks that it is time for his luck to change. This and a series of other cognitive biases constantly make bettors lose money. The unfortunate thing is that you cannot overcome all these biases. The best you can do is control your actions and place bets based on their Expected Value, while at the same time not taking your feelings into account. What’s the deal for you? Before betting, you should settle with yourself what for you are there. If betting for you is an adrenaline rush, occasional win, way of socializing etc., then you can freely rely on your gut feeling and enjoy the entertainment. But always keep in mind to spend as much … Read more

How are squad rotation and relegation related in soccer?

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In order to improve their form, soccer teams who are having difficulties in the League often change their squad. However, whether this works or not and whether this information can be used in betting is yet to be discovered. In order to check this, data should be examined and see if relationship between the number of players used and relegation exists in soccer.  Derby County is the only team that has ever scored the lowest, 11 points, in the 38 game Premier League in 2007/08. In this season they used 36 different players. In 2013/14, Fulham were relegated using even more players. In general, the quality of those teams which are not among the strongest ones in a League is weaker. Namely, these teams have to call on all of their playing resources for numerous of reasons and these are selected from squad players whose are weaker. Simon Gleave’s concept recognizes the split in the Premier League between habitual title contenders and the rest and this concept is known to be of ‘a superior seven’ and the remaining batch of thirteen regularly changing teams. Thus, it is important to look at the ‘remaining batch of thirteen regularly changing teams’ in order to see whether there is a correlation between results and squad usage.   What do numbers say? If we use the statistics since 1999 and take into consideration the fifteen best performances from the pool of teams outside the superior seven, the findings suggest that all but one used 29 or less players over the season, with the average of just 24.5 players. This means that they used an average of six fewer players than the teams which finished at the bottom in the course of the same timeframe (30.4). The graph below shows the relationship between fewer points and greater numbers of players since 1999. All of the teams from the Premier League, outside of the superior seven, have this correlation in common. Relation of the performance to the number of players over a Season: What we can see from the graph is that the fewer the number of core players are engaged in the field, the greater number of average points scored per game. Why consistent teams matter? The effectiveness of one team increases over a period if as little as possible changes appear on the field. This is true mainly because the players get accustomed with one another in terms of playing style. The important thing to know here is the fact that, by knowing one another, one player can easily guess, by intuition, what the next move of the other may be. This is especially important for best striking partnerships. On the other hand, in defense terms, one team would only improve through practice and familiarity. Why do weaker teams use bigger squads? Continuously weak results call for change. And this is why a manager’s first reaction to constantly bad performance is to make the change. The easiest way to do this is to drop under-performing players and replace them with another player from within the squad. In certain cases, the reason for making changes is the change of the manager midseason in the first place. Considering himself a ‘fresh air’, his first reaction is changing the playing staff There are some other examples, however. Crystal Palace, in the 20th, was appointed a manager, Tony Pulis, in 2014. After outperforming the usual achievements of every relegation threatened team since 1999 that used 31 players, they finished 11th. Taking everything into account, according to statistics, using fewer players actually help the team. There is strong linear correlation between match outcomes and player churn within the season and the more the numbers of players rise, the more the points per game fall. Why does this concern soccer bettors? The nominal value of a player is still the most important for the overall results of one team. Thus, this should be the most significant fact that bettors should take into account when evaluating the abilities of one team. If a team continuously changes personnel, this only implies that it is struggling and will continue to struggle more as the season progresses. This is usually a sign of a lack of talent depth. To take everything into account, bettors should always be aware that correlation between stability of one team selection and increased league points for teams outside of the elite. However, team stability is only one factor which affects on the overall performance of a club throughout a season.

Why separating probability from intuition is of utmost importance?

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 The Possibility and Certainty Effects give rise to a twisted perception that judging the likelihood of rare events is so difficult. The example of this is the lottery. However, betting on the team that you are attached to is extremely bad idea. In general, bettors instead of measuring the value of a bet by its Expected Value (EV), they consider what they feel about the potential returns. Let’s try rating the importance of the increases below in our chance to win $1 million: Every option stands for equal quantitative change (a 5% improvement). However, they produce different qualitative impressions, or so to say, every single option creates a different emotional reaction. In option (a), one moves from no chance of winning the $1 million to having a chance. The positive emotion is present because this chance, no matter how small is, there is still a probability of 0.05 and this feeling is called the Possibility Effect. This leads bettors to overweight long shots and it is the incentive which makes gamblers participate in a lottery because for small money, it offers the possibility of a huge return. In option (b) and (c) there is less dramatic impressions. Option (b) offers even double of what option (a) does. However, the qualitative impact is absent since it doesn’t have the same mental effects and it doesn’t cause significant mental reactions. Option (d) provides a 100 % certainty and is opposite to the Possibility Effect. Thus is called the Certainty Effect, which means that when EV calculations are not present, and outcomes which are almost certain are in general underweighted compared to their probability. Although weighing the probabilities is very beneficial, bettors will usually bet on one team over the other simply because the think it is a more likely occurrence, without calculating a superior value. According to studies, when a subject matter stimulates emotional representation of an outcome, one has a declined ability to assess the probability of outcomes in an unbiased way. Therefore, your emotional attachment to your favourite team will create your biased projections of the desired outcome – thinking the ball into the net – and thus your will overweight the probability of that team winning. All of this makes placing a bet on your favourite team a really bad idea.   Why the phrasing is important An Expected Value calculation is easier to make when a bet has a clear wording because in that way weighting will be close to or match probability. If a bet is worded in a slightly different way, then this could make a huge difference to how it is interpreted. For example, outright markets can be phrased as either, ‘Player A vs. the field’, or as a long list of all participants including Player A (e.g. Player A: 3.201, Player B: 9.454, Player C: 11.232, etc.). What this means is that the first option gives a simple presentation of the task for Player A and this stimulates cognitive overweighting of his probability of success. The second option seems to have more frightening prospect. The truth here is that the probability of success is the same as in the first option, but in the second option the opponents of Player A are known and listed. Thus, this results in underweighted assessment.   Never lose focus over emotion “Will Team A score?” Odds Yes/Odds No “Will Team B score?” Odds Yes/Odds No This is a very common bet to see. However, it is important to focus here in order to prevent misjudgment of probability. If you focus on only one bet in isolation, i.e. not properly considering the other one as a whole, then your judgment may be overweighted. Thus, the following combination of both questions gives a better perspective: “Will both Team A & Team B score” Odds Yes/Odds No There was one study in 1999 by Craig Fox and psychologist Amos Tversky. This study included a group of US basketball fans to assess the individual chances of the eight quarter-finalists in the NBA Playoffs. The aggregated probability for the outcomes was significantly overweighted at 240 % for the eight teams. This was because the focus was exclusively on assessing the chances of just one team at a time and because they were all NBA fans who had vivid impressions of each team. On the other hand, later they were asked to assess the chances of winning of Eastern Conference as opposed to Western Conference and these probabilities turned to be close to 100 %. This was a result of the fact that the two options generated less emotional response and they were equally specific. How are rare events related to underweighting? The inability to visualise a rare event and the lack of proper calculation leads to underweighting of probability. This is illustrated by a betting coup in 1991, who became known as the Hole in One Gang. The two bettors calculated that the odds of a hole-in-one occurring at a European Golf Tour event were approximately 2.25, after they analysed statistics. They targeted various independent bookmakers and requested odds for a hole-in-one, but as risk assessment in that time was not so sophisticated, they only relied on their intuition. With little or no experience with a hole-in-one events for bookmakers, the quotes offered ranged from 4.00 to 101.1 and this was a great example of how one rare event can be overweighted. Sadly, as bettors rely on their feelings and place bets based on how they feel about the probabilities, which results in the Possibility and Certainty Effects, these kinds of mistakes can turn out to be very costly. Again, the golden rule in betting is to assess every bet in terms of Expected Value – the average of outcomes each weighted by probability.

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